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Off Kilter

publication date: Jul 20, 2007
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Hello,
 
Well, what a week it's been for the out of kilter system
mentioned in last week's eletter...
 
On the Friday there were 2 winners, Riquewihr at 20/1 (32
on Betfair - that's a whopping 31/1!) and JohnTerry at
16/1.
 
This week, I have been keeping a record of examples.
Although some have been legitimate outsiders (as seen by
their poor runnings) along pops another 20/1 winner at a
huge 42 on Betfair - that's 41/1!
 
A standout example came in the 720 Wolves on 16th July.
This was a 6 furlong maiden stakes race and here's how
the Betfair price market looked from top to bottom:
 
Cracking Nick 2.56
Nice Wee Girl 8.4
Mudhish 10.5
Intersky Melody 24
Shabnaam 14
Maryolini 42
Spinning Ridge 8.2
Anabaas Secret 11
Carry on Cleo 36
Avian Flew 50
Rewski 70
Imaginemysurprise 100
 
So who's out of kilter here? Can you spot the horse or
horses before I tell you?
 
You'd be right if you said Intersky Melody and Maryolini.
Now it's the latter who really grabbed my attention - a
massive price and stuck between an 8.2 and an 11!
Further, this was a 6 furlong maiden race - i.e. open to
surprises - and add to this the fact it was run on the all
weather, and Maryolini looks an attractive proposition.
 
Check the results for that day yourself. Yes, Maryolini
came in 1st at 20/1 SP. Of course, using Betfair we'd have
filled our boots.
 
Now I really don't expect these bets to oblige BUT THEY
DO! It's about 6 winners in 2 weeks all double figure odds
and all mostly around the 20 marker.
I had another close call with a horse called Inishibee who
was again out of kilter, and traded in running at odds of
1.6. Alas the horse was beaten into 2nd.
  
Coincidence? I am being persuaded that it is definitely not
coincidence. Reader feedback seems to back up this
anomaly. I really don't know why the odds are so big and
the horses drift so much - perhaps it's a ploy by some
persons unknown to get a better and higher price in the in
running market. Surely if the horse was fancied there'd be
an inkling of this on the price graph, but these selections
seem to drift like a barge!
 
While I wouldn't advocate whole sale backing of all out of
kilter cases, I would look to back the basil fawlty types i.e.
"the bleedin' obvious Sybil!" - like the one above.
 
I am sure that, if this kind of excellent strike rate continues,
those of you who have the capacity to follow the live
markets can benefit greatly - remember here it's potential
big returns for relatively little outlay. (Don't get greedy now
- there will be losing runs if we're hunting down 20/1
winners -BUT I make it 6 winners now at 16/1 and above
in 2 weeks - not even the mighty ColinDavey or Paul
Howell (friend of the stars) can compete with this!) An ideal
small stakes betting proposition can pay off well. 
 
****************************************
HIGHLY RECOMMENDED
 
At last! Former IBM super-brain reveals how he 'hacked'
into the horse racing industry's computer mainframe... to
make legal TAX-FREE profits:
 
"It cost me 6 years and a broken friendship to create this
database of QUARTER MILLION race results...
 
But boy was it worth it!
 
Since January 2005 it's helped me turn £1,200 into
£34,309.25.
 
Now you could do the same!"
 
****************************************
 
LAY CRAZY'S birthday special offer.
 
You may have got an email inviting you to share in Lay
Crazy's birthday by purchasing their coming in 2nd system.
 
Well it's already been done by the likes of stable income
plan and Layer's Edge, so anyone who has this should not
duplicate purchase. Again, it's hardly earthshattering - so
if you get an invite to join their birthday special offer, just
ask for some of their delicious Rice Krispie cakes and
leave it at that!
 
COMPOUNDING UPDATE
 
An interesting meeting this week with a statistical type who
showed me a way to turn an initial £238 investment into
£15,000! Yes compounding rears its head again. So how
is this achievable? Well, split your £238 seed money into
10 columns. The first column is £125, followed by 9
columns of £12.50.
 
With the £125, we look to make 2% daily if possible, and of
the remaining 9 columns we look to make 3 columns at 1%
, 3 columns at 2% and 3 columns at 3%, each with
different time frames.
 
The key to making this work, I think, will have to be the use
of the betting exchanges where laying, in running betting,
and trading can really help to keep risk low, and earn the
comparatively small target profits.
 
With the right tools, like software, these daily goals are
achievable. I will be trying it out as of today and will keep
you informed of my progress. My target today is a
whopping £4.75. Achievable? Hmmmm let's see!
 
I'm seeking to use trading and hedging mostly, as well as
laying likely short priced horses (you know the type,
favourites in maiden hurdles, novices stakes events and all
other manner of horror races!) with a view to solely trading
out with a hopeful profit in running if, as I expect, prices
increase above those at which I laid the horse.
With the football season coming too, this kind of small
gains system should come into its own. Want to see the
spreadsheet - email me! The spreadsheet will explain
better than words!
 
HAZELIRVINE SPREAD BET LOOKING ROSEY
 
Yes I've filled my boots this week with a spread bet on how
many times HazelIrving can repeat the "Carnasty" joke
during this weekend's coverage of the Open at Carnoustie.
I have gone for double figures, and my bet is looking great
with her wringing out the "Carnasty" play on words with
aplomb on Wednesday's Open review show. I'll admit, she
tried really hard to get the "Carnasty" in as many times as
possible and I counted a respectable 4 times and it's not
even the weekend. Go on girl!
 
VIRTUAL SOCCER ANYONE?
 
I'm looking for a couple of testers for this new betting
system on the market which focuses predominantly on the
Virtual soccer at selected bookmakers Eurobet, Paddy
Power and StanJames. So to qualify as a tester, I want to
hear from anyone who is a customer and user of any of
these 3 bookmakers. I have heard reports are very
favourable regarding this system. My immediate worry is
the longevity of these virtual games - are they here for the
foreseeable or until something else takes their place.?
I wish my football team Wolves could play in this Virtual
League!  
 
READER RECOMMENDS
 
Thanks to another reader tip off, I'm investigating a
fantastic new twist on the old theme of arbitrage, only this
time you don't have to deposit loads with a dodgy eastern
European bookie and another amount with a US bookie
based in the Caymans to claim you £1.40.
This arb method uses legit big name high street bookies
and betfair to make REAL RISK FREE MONEY - more to
follow next week!
 
GONE TO THE DOGS...
 
One last thing before I go: my good friend greyhound
racing.
 
Now I've discussed this previously that Betfair's greyhound
market is a backer's market i.e. there is insufficient market
forces to make laying prices shorter.
 
With that in mind, I am keen to take favs on in greyhounds
but must do so by backing others rather than laying the
fav.
 
So in bags meetings I've been looking at backing the 3
outsiders in every race - the advantage? These 3
outsiders odds are going to represent huge value on
Betfair compared to traditional bookmakers. Why, only
yesterday in one race, a 7/2 shot with the bookies was
available at odds of 11 on Betfair - yes 10/1 for a 7/2 shot!
- Yes please! We're also covering half the field which is
great!
 
I'm only playing small here - back the outsiders to £2
stakes - that's £6 a race, but the potential returns can be
great. Take a look at http://www.thedogs.co.uk and check
out how the outsiders have performed in random previous
meetings. I would tend to avoid the night meetings at the
big tracks like Romford and Walthamstow as the market
leaders tend to perform well.
 
Plenty to chew on in this week's eletter - Have a great
weekend and don't forget to cheer on MrsDoubtfire, sorry,
Monty, in the Open - that's as long as it doesn't turn
"Carnasty" up in Scotland!
 
Until next week,
 
Clive
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