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Shut up Shane!

publication date: Nov 24, 2006
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Hi
 
Yes, the Ashes are here, and these are the 4 words I'll be looking forward to hearing on a regular basis. Let's look at it in context
 
SHANEWARNE - 'HOWZAAAAAAAT'
UMPIRE - 'SHUT UP SHANE'
 
Not looking too rosy at present alas with missing persons and
injury worries putting a cloud over England, but it's a 5 match
series so here's hoping. I'm taking no betting interest in the
match as cricket ain't my bag, but I am taking an interest in.....
 
I'M HANGING ON TO CELBRITY STATUS BY MY
FINGERNAILS -KEEP ME IN HERE
 
Don't worry guys, Myleene is still there. Toby is gone and this is
a good thing for my fun bet.
 
Let's look at the odds from last week - Myleene is fav at 4.1,
followed by Jason at 4.5, DavidGest at 8, Toby at 12.5, Matt at
13.5, and 30 bar those.My bet was on Faith Brown is 30, Lauren
Booth 60, Jan Leeming 80, Scott 80, Phina 160, and include this
with any other at 4.7 .
 
Faith Brown is out to 120, Lauren Booth 140, Scott is 100, and
Phina is down to 110, and the Big mover is JanLeeming down
from 80 to 30. I can get back 4 quid by laying JanLeeming and
Phina (so to speak) ,but I'll stick with the bet - gives me an
interest in the show.
 
FOOTBALL
 
The handicapping perm was undone by Arsenal's draw last
week, and it just occurred to me that picking 3 home bankers is
the equivalent of an accumulator, and these very rarely some off.
So if I was to stick with this perm I would reduce it to 2 home
bankers at the very least. Let's see how the handicap rating judge
this weekend's matches in the Premiership
 
AstonVilla v Middlesbrough - 160 v 20
Fulham v Reading - 20 v 60
Liverpool v ManCity - 80 v 40
Charlton v Everton - -70 v 140
Bolton v Arsenal - 120 v 180
Newcastle v Portsmouth - -40 v 180
Tottenham v Wigan - 30 v 120
Man Utd v Chelsea - 350 v 300
West Ham v Sheffield United - -10 v -50
 
Looking at last week, I was right to highlight the under 2.5 goals
in the Everton game as it ended 1-0 - never in doubt. Perhaps
this could be another angle in using these ratings.
 
What immediately grabs my attention is Wigan's rating. They've
been quietly going about their business, and the ratings point to
an away win or draw.
 
The other standouts include Portsmouth away to Newcastle, but
it must be noted that the excellent Shay Given returns for
Newcastle and his impact has been greatly felt in the onion bag.
Everton have a 210 point advantage over Everton. From a home
win perspective, Villa look to have an advantage over Boro.
Naturally Man Utd v Chelsea is really too close to call.
 
How will I approach the weekend? Well, I don't see a banker
home team in the premiership so will avoid the handicap perm
this week. I will, though, attempt another 3 bet plan. I'm going to
look further afield for my banker bet this week. What I do is
copy and paste the football odds from Ladbrokes website - it
means I can keep tabs on scores and sequences and also
determine any patterns with specific odds, as well as looking for
potential banker bets. My banker bet will be Juventus at 1.11 -
bad odds but they should oblige. I will choose Villa as one
home/draw and I'll chance Everton/the draw away to a muddling
Charlton.
 
Here's how it'll look
 
JUVENTUS 111
VILLA 11X
EVERTON 1X1
 
For a hypothetical £100 stake, I will win £94.64 using Ladbrokes
prices. This is my play and not a tip, so bear that in mind. You
might have better information than me. I'll also try a 2 bet plan
with Juventus as the banker, and Liverpool (1.40 ) and the draw
(3.7). This increases the odds if both teams win to 1.55, and if
Juve win and Liverpool draw to 4.11. To £100 total stake, I'll
only win £12.47 - I say only but this is 12% return - not too
shabby. I also think the Man Utd v Chelsea game will be a good
under 2.5 goals, as I believe the game will be tight up to half
time (remember with trading you don't need to have a 90 minute
perspective). Drogba did pick up an ankle injury mid week and if
he's out, a significant goal threat will be negated.
 
BET X POKER
 
While writing this eletter I'm trying out a new bet exchange
poker strategy using the slower version of the game, and I've
made £100 in about an hour and a half, and it's a strategy I
nicked from the Betfair Forum. I'll do a proper write up of it in
the near future - maybe a Christmas pressie to all readers. It
really is a simple system, and I don't want to reveal all until I
know I'm not just enjoying a lucky streak at present. The system
involves 3 bets at £4 each so £12 a round and I've given myself
a stop loss of 10 bets - if I lose £120 then hey ho, that's
gambling ( I have a portfolio of strategies so this will be
outweighed by gains in other areas so I'm not too concerned and
I certainly don't want to chase losses!) I'm excited by it if it
continues. You can do your computer work while making money
in the background. So get writing to Santa to reveal the secrets -
this will be exclusive to you so have patience!
 
BETONMARKETS
 
Another oldie I haven't paid much attention to, but having
focussed on the Forex market and using Metatrader (free forex
software - google it!) I'm trying to come up with a strategy to
exploit forex using fixed odds financial betting. It's a work in
progress but any eureka moments will be shared with you asap.
It'll be good to dust off my old betonmarkets manuals. Where do
I find the time? I've actually had 3 clones made - one that goes
out boozing and dreaming of Myleene Klass, another who writes
the newsletter, and another who tries out various strategies for
you. Speaking of which......
 
SYSTEMS SYSTEMS SYSTEMS
 
I've got a shed load of systems which realistically I can't
possibly trial on a daily basis so I'll ask for your help here.
Plenty of horse racing systems, and greyhound systems ( the
latter, you'll recall is my nemesis so I want to crack it because of
the potential of making money in the evening) so I need your
help to test them out. So email me if this interests you. 
There are some interesting systems being trialled at the moment,
and I will reveal all once I have taken them through some staking
plans to maximise profits. I have revisited the Ultimate Betting
System (UBS) for this (www.ultimatebettingsystem.com) -a
piece of software which acts as an effective multiple staking
strategy. Most important to me, I feel, is trying to see if I can get
a selection strategy robust enough to allow us to make £50 a day
and stop at a winner. The UBS does this automatically ( not the
selecting alas) and incorporates a stop loss facility incase you
start staking too much in a single day. Again, it ensures there's
no loss chasing as this can be a killer.
 
BLOG
 
A lot of placed bets this week for the blog, but it's no bad thing,
as we get our stakes back and keep rolling on to another day.
Day of Claies provided me with a nice 16/1 winner and I bagged
an 8/1 and 7/1 yesterday (although advised stopping at a profit
yesterday) . The lay and soccer blogs are under construction in
line with my publisher's 'BLOG IT' manual, it's an interesting
exercise and hopefully a lucrative one, while keeping the info
free for you! I'm learning everyday from the soccer and also
want to get the lays up and running to act as a diary fro the Maria
laying system.
 
Well, another weekend upon us, I hope you have a great one!
 
Clive
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