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Bumper Easter weekend of sport

publication date: Apr 7, 2007
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Hi
 
I'm looking forward to this weekend I must say. With the sun
shining outdoors there's nothing better than staying in and
watching telly! I'll be watching JustinRose fairly spank Tiger
Woods in the US Masters then JoeCalzaghe fairly whip
another yank in the ring (so to speak!), and those jolly chaps
rowing up the Thames to shouts of 'Row Row Row, we're
going to smash the oiks!' I've got a cracking bet in the Boat
race. I'll be trading the under 2.5 goals market here. (Erm,
Clive, think the sun's gone to your head!) (Thank you Ed),
mixed in with a couple of very important Premier league
matches.
 
The racing, alas, pales in complexion, although again the
AidenO'Brien bandwagon is in town in Ireland and I'll be
hoping to bag a couple of decent O'Brien winners today.
Reading the article in Ireland there should be some good value
in the Weld Smullen, Obrien/Heffernan, and Oxx/Kinane
combinations today.
 
SYSTEMS SYSTEMS SYSTEMS
 
Well the debate around the Money Vault continues unabated.
Again, I must stress that it is very closely related to the 16/1
system - in fact I would describe it as the 16/1 system with
more stringent rules. There is a degree of ambiguity about
whether we use the Sun or the Racing Post (my preference is
for the Sun, because I think it is important to keep abreast of
what Kelly, 20, from Manchester has to say about the
current state of affairs in our nation).
 
Results will really vary drastically whichever of these
newspapers are used, so I need to see if I can contact the
author regarding this important matter.
 
Again, it's been an up and down week. Days like Tuesday
seems to be typical. - starting off with the first 4 bets being
winners, only to find 4 consecutive losses which reduce
profits, albeit to 14.25 points on the day, and a breakeven on
the Wednesday.
 
I must also stress that this system is reliant on following the
live betting market, so those unable to do so cannot really
benefit from it.
 
Talking about follow the money systems, I thought I'd dig
out the, arm, Follow The Money system, and it has been
appalling this week, with one winner, and a multitude of
unplaced selections. This is in stark contrast to the Money
Vault, and we can surmise here, that the rules in the Money
Vault, while ambiguous in areas, tightens the selection
structure up somewhat
 
I also have managed to get my hands on the Lay betting
blueprint which is going through its paces - another heavily
padded manual with about 2 lines for the system itself - quite
disgraceful, but, hey, if it works it works, right? My good
show biz Pal, JamesBuswell, has his own laying system
now, again I have had to hire CarolVorderman and DrHeinz
Woolf to decipher it for me. I hope it can do the business
because frankly life is too short to try to apply MR
Buswell's madcap equations to horseracing.
 
I have the pinnacle too, laythebest, and a few more in the
pipeline to track and forward on to you.
 
As far as laying is concerned, I've again been trying to come
up with my own systems, so sick am I of forking out £47 a
time for something my 4 year old nephew could have written.
I'm currently experimenting with laying bottom weights in
handicaps, laying the biggest priced betting forecast fav, and
the betting forecast fav in the biggest field. I also thought I'd
look at races where the market leader hadn't faced the
opposition before - my thinking behind this - can we really
compare horses who have never run against each other
before?
 
One other area of interest is the fav stats for certain
races, which can be found on the Racing Post. These stats can
highlight races where, historically, the favourite wins once in
every 5 races, far below the norm of around 30%. Again, my
thinking is that if this fav is, say 4/1 in the betting forecast,
then we can surmise that the race is fairly open, and this
runner can add to the poor fav stats!
 
I'm keeping tabs on all of these and will pass on to you free
(or do a series of 3 books - only 15 left - Betfair Revolution!
- only £47 - closes midnight!) - so watch out!
 
HANDICAP E/W is turning!
 
Beware, the handicap e/w a stalwart for my laying in the
jumps, may just be reverting back to the original backing
system it was. A steady stream of winners on the flat has
meant I have had to shelve this system for the flat, but will
reintroduce in the jumps. It is still good for place laying with
progressive staking, but has produced some 8 winners last
week. I noticed that it was coming up with about a winner a
day earl in the transition between jumps and flat, so please
take this on board.
 
*******************************
 
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*******************************
 
TRADING
 
I'm just beginning my opus on trading which I want to make
available to readers. The bias will be, for me, on trading using
Fairbot from www.binteko.com and bet angel (free version).
I have been brainstorming all week, and as expected, there are
many topics to cover, from trading before the race, to trading
in running, to hedging, to backing and laying simultaneously,
and then there's the (pause for breath) football to consider.
One thing I did notice this week was how stable the price
trends are in Irish racing.
 
What do I mean? Well, Irish racing is less liquid that its UK
counterparts, but if we use price graphs like Fairbot's we can
discern the general trend of the prices some 15-20 minutes
before the off. These trends tend to hold true, and don't
reverse in a moment, unlike their UK counterparts, so we can
lay prices that drift and back prices that shorten with a view
to be fairly confident that we can reverse out. I tried this at
GowranPark's recent evening meeting and it was very
effective indeed, and a lot less stressful than the UK markets.
This is something for you to bear in mind.
 
Hope you enjoy the sunshine and the sport - nothing like
watching multimillionaires play golf and earn another 6 figure
sum for a 4 day stroll (I'm not bitter!)
 
Bye for now
 
 
Clive
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