Hi
Well it's the highlight of our racing calendar here
in Guernsey this weekend with the Donkey Derby
at SausmarezPark. However, with foot and
mouth, donkeys are not allowed. Don't fret,
hordes of UK punters flocking over for this "
spectacle!" Sark, a small island near Guernsey has
come up with the solution. Sheep racing!
Yes, sheep racing this weekend. The "jockeys"
are actually teddy bears tied to the sheep. Who
needs Cheltenham? Who needs Ascot? Who
needs Epsom? Who needs Fallon? Watch the
sheep racing. I must say though that Big Ted, one
of the "jockeys" is putting up a bit of over weight,
and another TeddyJockey has lost an eye.
This should be a great spectacle. I wonder if
Channel 4 Racing will be showing it?
They'll be getting the sheep to move by getting
Gordon " what the **** you ******** looking at
you******** ******. Run you ******** "
Ramsey to "*********" chase after them with a
"*********" carving knife - the *********!
Back to the traditional boring UK Horse Racing
(how unoriginal is that?!) ..... Hope you've
benefited from the blog this week, catchily
entitled http://www.back-lay-trade-horses-
football.blogspot.com/. First day was heralded by
a 20/1 winner, and in the ensuing days I've been
finding big priced placed horses, most recently
Sion Hill 3rd at 25/1 and a massive 70 on Betfair.
Interestingly, this horse was an out of kilter
candidate. If memory serves it was in a claimer or
a maiden or some horror show of a race, and the
horses on either side were priced around 20, so we
had a Betfair screen which showed, 20,70, 20 -
very obvious indeed and an ideal each way
candidate and so it proved.
Talking of claimers I was cursing myself after
missing out on another opportunity to clean up,
retire, move to LA and play some football for
some dodgy outfit.
I have noticed that certain claiming races
(claimers) are rife for upsets.
One claimer was in Ireland recently with the 2
market leaders trading blows at evens or
thereabouts with none of the others given a
chance by the prices. I actually readied a bet
called a "back all" bet where I bet on all horses to
a level stake. The idea is to take the obvious
market leaders on. I didn't have the guts to press
the submit button, and missed out on a £5K
payout when the outsider romped home. Yes I
was "Gutted from Guernsey".
Did I learn my lesson? No chance.
Yesterday there I was chatting to TefalHead, love
child of Einstein and CaroleVorderman, and I
recounted my claiming story.
The 435 Sandown arrived and I told him how this
was very similar to the race where I could have
made £5K by concentrating on the outsiders.
There were 6 runners, priced at 6/5, 5/2, 4/1, 12/1,
16/1, and 16/1. Of course the prices for the
outsiders on Betfair were greatly enhanced. I told
TefalHead that I missed out last time and I should
really consider backing the outsiders and leaving a
small loss on the market leaders.
He said " Why don't you then?" So I readied my
bets, submitted them and only 2 got matched.
There was I looking at a red screen because I had
ummed and ahhed too much. I had wanted to
engineer a £50 loss on the market leaders and
£500+ gains on the outsiders. Result - Vietnam
won at 16/1. I ended up actually losing money
despite creating a winning bet but not submitting
it in time.
So, if you're so inclined, take a look over past
claimers and see if you can spot any that have
shown an upset. "I could have been a
braziliionaire, Rodney!"
So I have 3 to 4 systems rife for picking out
potential big priced wins and placed horses
(remember when we're backing big prices it's
always "pruuuuuudeeeent" as Gordon
"interesting" Brown would say, to back for the
place and win because on occasion you'll be paid
double figure odds for the place!)
On the blog this week I have also tried to suss out
progressive staking bets and place only bets, and
the results have been most encouraging. I have
had a very good strike rate with my progressive
staking bets (the idea here is to supply a number
of bets suited to progressive staking - generally
high strike rate; as near to evens as possible; small
losing run.)
I have had a near 100% strike rate with my place
only bets on the blog and this area I am keen to
monitor - the only thing I need to concentrate on
is turning the high strike rate at unexciting odds
into a constant profit maker.
I think you'll find the blog interesting; it's a work
in progress and a place to think out loud, so take a
look.
On to the beautiful game (no not chasing Kelly
Brook round the garden!) . . .
I must take this opportunity for thanking SirAlex
"Hairdryer" Ferguson and his team for scuppering
2 weeks worth of accumulators on the English
Premiership. SirHairdryer was obviously aware
of Betfair multiples and the fact that laying
obvious accumulators is a way to benefit from
shock results. I suspect with the seeming
competitiveness of the Premiership this season
that a few obvious accas will go down and those
of you who lay the accumulators on Betfair will
benefit.
It was good to see Liverpool gain an away goal at
Toulouse midweek and I took my bet from the
Racing Post - under 2.5 goals and so it turned out
- selectively using the Racing Post's football
verdicts can give you an angle in which to enter a
game and trade that game if you're not expert on
the particular league/team although ready
preference is for personal opinion (cos then I'll
only be swearing at myself when it goes wrong!)
The Simplex System has begun with the first
matches and of course after one week we will not
be able to gauge how it will progress. 10p initial
stakes and I'm not yet at underpant changingly
big stakes, although come game 36 of the season
who knows? I can't reveal the simplex system or
even hint at it because it's simplex - sorry,
simple. £30K by season end - who knows? -
KellyBrook will know because I'll have moved
next door!
My football tipping on the blog has been
generally poor - write out 100 times " I must not
bet on the first day of the season" I need to wait
for the dust to settle and for results to build up a
form picture. There are a couple of new football
sites I am keen to trial so will be pursuing these
next system shop day. I will also be putting
football betting science's perm calculators to use
if there are opportunities. I am a bit wary of
signing up for football "tipsters", after all, it's not
like buying horse racing information. With
football tipsters you're largely buying the opinion
of one person.
Why not specialise in a league/team of your own
and back your own opinion?
Oh how hearty it was to see AD Associates'
football bet mailing this week. I had run out of
lining for the cat litter box. We did trial this last
year and the general consensus was that it was
unworkable and unprofitable.
One tipster I am looking forward to trialling is
Martin "on the buses" Blakey of
http://www.target10.co.uk/ I was keen to purchase
his ebook but he is now offering a tipping service,
concentrating on handicaps and the potential of
certain horses to win on their revised marks. Past
results are very encouraging indeed (aren't they
all!) and you'll be receiving a full update of this
service soon - I'm glad to report there's not a
glossy brochure in sight - Take a bow the
Accumulator Advisor!
JamesJary has continued to come good with his
tipping service - I'll update fully in the next
newsletter. My focus of late has been on laying
tipsters. I am keen, though to trial backing
tipsters, so if you have any fancies (which don't
include people such as the Sweeney et al) then let
me know. My current roster includes Matt
Bisogno, Paul and Target 10 amongst a very
select group. Naturally I'm keen to expand this for
you. My ready preference is for those who don't
shout from the rooftops, but just get on with the
job in hand.
Thanks must go, before I end, to all the E mini
volunteers, I look forward to your feedback on
this financials package. Any testers out there who
have results - please forward them this weekend
for my final analysis before August's newsletter.
I'm off now to bet a few shekels on the sheep
racing. The only sheep with decent form is Shaun
the Sheep off the telly so I've marked his card,
and if he shows up on Saturday I'll be lumping
on!
Have a great weekend
Clive
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