Hi,
Well some things never change. Like England's inability,
recently, to beat the Germans -1966 seems like 41 years
ago! Elsewhere in the football world, Brazil have been
hugely dominant in the under 17's world cup in Korea, and in
2 matches so far have scored 13 goals and conceded 1 -
yes I know what you're thinking - a Brazil side without a
dodgy defence? - what's the world coming to?
Brazil look full of goals ( you don't say - The Ed) and are
worth an interest in the over 2.5 goal market in remaining
matches, although as I write they face the might of the
England Under 17's who will need their factor 50 suncream
in the sweltering Korean climate.
In this tournament it may also be worth paying attention to
the African teams, most notably Nigeria and Ghana (if the
latter are still in the tournament) - my thinking? Well they
should adapt far better to the hot conditions than their
European counterparts.
Elsewhere on the domestic front, the accumulators have
been dropping like flies thanks to Man Utd's performance at
the front end of the season. Those looking to include
shorties in "banker" accumulators would have also been let
down by Portugal's 1-1 draw away to the might of Armenia.
This seems to vindicate the policy of laying those
accumulators you used to lap up on a Saturday via the
Betfair multiples facility.
On the horse racing front and the York meeting is over for
another year, and Authorized and Peeping Fawn vindicated
their status as top class animals. Alas I missed betting on
these 2 thanks to Guernsey Broadband providers new policy
of promoting HomerSimpson to Head of Broadband. This
was made worse by the Broadband headquarters being
located next to a Donut factory. Yes I lost connection for a
few days last week resulting in mild panic at the size of my
inbox once broadband was restored and an overweight
Homer airlifted out!
Continues below...
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LET'S GO SHOPPING...
Yes it's that time of the month - my system shop, so send
your ideas via the usual email for those systems you want
looking at. By the way, I am due to receive the Etrends
software any minute and, naturally, will report on my findings
after giving it a good test. There has, of course .been a lot of
interest in this automated trading software for Betfair and I
await it with interest. My previous dealings with automated
software have not been good - they have tended to take on
a life of their own and my betting bank swiftly went south on
numerous occasions - oh the joys of the robots!
Thanks to Guernsey Broadband's "d'oh" moment, I have
been unable to update the blog this week but normal service
is resumed. The mission behind this blog is to try and see if,
using just the Racing Post betting forecast and Spotlight, we
can bag some winners and big price each way horses. It's
an interesting exercise and is one I want to refine because
let's face it, I, and I'm sure you, don't want to be scouring
over the form, speed figures, what the jockey had for
breakfast, whether the horse's star sign is entering Uranus
(snigger). For me the betting forecast, although totally
independent of the live market, is trustworthy enough to act
as a barometer for likely good runners. It can also give us an
overview of a race.
Here's an example from yesterday:
425 YORK - BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Wannabe Posh,
11/4 Winter Sunrise, 11/2 Brisk Breeze, 10/1 Gull Wing,
Mussoorie, 12/1 LesFazzani, 14/1 Dance Of Light, Dash To
The Front, Guilia, 20/1 High Heel Sneakers, Oh Glory Be,
500/1 Restless Soul.
Here's how I would interpret the above - we have horses at
5/2, 11/4 and 11/2. Now we have a huge price gap to the
10/1, 12/1 and 14/1 horses. Then we have a 3rd tier -the
projected "outsiders"
We can see 3 distinct tiers here. The first tier is the first 3
horses who should be vying to win. The second tier is horses
with place potential and the third tier we can discount.
I would have opted for Brisk Breeze here - my reasoning?
He is in the first tier and is priced such that he should be
competing for a place at least. Why is this important? Well,
we're backing each way and if the horse places we get our
stakes back.
What was the result? Wannabe Posh from the first tier won,
Brisk Breeze came 2nd at 9/1 ( we get paid for the place and
actually make a small profit) and Mussoorie was 3rd (a horse
from the 2nd tier who had pretensions to place)
It's not so difficult when you start to notice these "tiers". I
have actually taught this to the England Manager - he uses
the tiers of "mcclown" (I thank you - I am open for bookings
now!)
As to looking for win only bets, well we can actually use the
betting forecast here as well. Another example will show this
to good effect. You know I'm been searching for one a day
bets for ages - well can the betting forecast provide us with
the tools to spot these one a day bets?
Again this was the first at York:
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Dark Angel, 9/1 Cosmic Art,
10/1 Dedo, Drawnfromthepast, New Jersey, Philario, 12/1
Berbice, Cee Bargara, Gypsy Baby, Johar Jamal, 25/1
Mister Hardy, 33/1 Apollo Shark, Grylls, Pelican Prince,
Quest For Success, 50/1 Fast Feet, Mazzanti, Nine Stories,
Russian Reel, 66/1 Mymumsaysimthebest.
Look at the price gap of the favourite Dark Angel - 9/4 -now
look at the price of the 2nd favourite 9/1. This is a huge price
gap given the context of the race - a 20 runner affair!.
Dark Angel won by the way.
Here, below, is perhaps the template for these kinds of bets.
It's very simplistic I know but is something I can spot easily.
The only other thing I check is whether Spotlight has written
favourably - if I see "hard to beat" "difficult to oppose" or in
the case of Peeping Fawn " Impossible to oppose today" - I
know that I have found a competitive animal.
So play around with this little system and see my selections
I'll also be talking about the weekend football, but it really is
getting difficult with the league looking competitive at least
for the mid table teams, and the promoted teams look as if
they won't roll over. I'll take a stab at the footy tomorrow.
On the European front, Barcelona begin their campaign with
ThierryHenry and SamuelEtoo and the dentist's best friend
Ronaldinho - anyone for a goal? I think so. Call me Mystic
Meg but I see a raft of over 2.5 goal trades for me this
season. They won't all come off but with a front line like that
there will be goals.
My thanks must go to all of the testers out there who have
provided excellent feedback and allowed me to see, at a
glance, the best performers of the last month - some
systems I would have been unable to follow - so it is much
appreciated and you are doing a great service to other
readers.
The move to Kellyarney in CountyKelly is moving ever
nearer and I have a fantastic drive from Portsmouth to
Fishguard. Now with the speedlimit in Guernsey of 35 miles
an hour, I'll be going fast if I hit 40, let alone 70! - BOY
RACER! I should be in Kellyarney just in time to see, erm,
BonnieTyler's Total Collapse from the Heart Failure, or
whatever the song was. Yes, she is one of the star studded
acts appearing in Killarney - I await with anticipation the
arrival of KiethHarris and Orville undertaking a world wide
stadium tour.
I mustn't knock it - and will have the car to explore and see
my many many cousins (yes Catholics!) strewn around
Ireland.
Have a great weekend and more testers please! - Email me!
Until next time,
Clive
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