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Is this the bet of the season so far?

publication date: Sep 30, 2007
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Hi
 
Is this the bet of the season so far?
 
I flagged it up in my blog but still couldn't quite believe
the price on Betfair - 1.7 about Chelsea against Hull on
Wednesday.
 
Yes I know it was the Carling Cup, but did you see the
team sheet - Cudicini in goal, Terry at the back, Essien,
Kalou and, erm, Pizarro who hasn't really impressed
me. Add to that Shaun Wright Phillips and we've got a
bunch of Internationals against a Championship side
who have not been firing and whose chances lay at the
aging feet of Jay Jay Okocha.
 
Add to that the psychological importance of Avram
Grant needing a victory and we've got a recipe for
success.
 
That's the thing about this betting malarkey - when
opportunities arise, you don't get a chance to umm and
ahh about them, you must grab them because they'll be
gone and you make no money for hindsight bets!
Procrastination and betting do not sit well together!
 
The Woman's World Cup (sponsored by
www.shopping.com!) has been a happy hunting ground.
Imagine the World Number 1's playing a team 12
places below them - USA v England, and therein lay
another great bet. One thing I have noticed about the
Woman's game is that the first halves have tended to be
tight affairs allowing under 2.5-goal trading to get out
after about 25-30 minutes - why? Well we have the old
" get a goal before half time" syndrome to contend
with. I did expect the USA to beat Brazil yesterday but
they decided to play football like, well, um, Americans
and got spanked by the Brazilian ladies.
 
Rugby World cup trading has been a great way to nick
a few quid too, with huge gulfs in class. I must admit I
backed France against Ireland and traded out once they
were 6-0 in front (don't tell the neighbours - they'll
lynch me!) The television has been a godsend for this
tournament from a betting perspective. I'm going to try
again with England v Tonga this weekend. Back
England pre match and hope they score or build up
even a 6-0 lead early on as the odds will reduce
allowing me to trade out. I can't see England being in
deficit to Tonga during the early stages - we'll have to
wait and see.
 
So plenty of really good opportunities this week. Will
my luck hold out? Will I be able to keep my discipline
without a visit from disciplinarian Miss O'Whiplash
(the Irish version of course!)? I hope so. I'm gathering
as much video evidence as possible at the moment
which I have made into a transferable format, but need
to work on my production skills to edit them into
themes - eg trading on horses, trading on football,
trading on other sports etc.  
 
BLOGTASTIC
 
http://clivekeeling.spaces.live.com is the address and
I've been surprised with the relatively good strike rate
for the price gappers. The great thing about the blog is I
can review it at a later date to see how, especially,
maiden candidates fared, as I am none too keen on
these races for obvious reasons. One note, if you're
going to back each way, Betfair's your place -
Savethisdanceforme SP 6/1 with the bookies, you could
have got 17 on Betfair and it won!
 
My tentative steps into Asian handicap betting came up
trumps with Man City only scoring the 1 versus
Norwich - I gave Norwich a 1.5 goal start, and, of
course, Chelski versus Hull - I gave Hull a 1 and 2 goal
start. I'll try it out again this weekend and see how it
goes.
 
There'll be plenty more experimenting over the coming
weeks.
 
SHOPPING
 
I am going to do my monthly shop on 1st October (give
those pesky bankers time to reactivate my debit card!)
and have a short list drawn up, including the already
mentioned Money Box from the man who bought you
The Money Vault. You already know my thoughts
about Booker Prize winner and New York bestseller list
supremo Stephen Brookes so it will be with great
reluctance that I venture towards his ebookshop!
 
I have a couple of systems flagged up to buy, and your
suggestions would be welcome before 1st October. My
interest would be football (and no I shan't be availing
myself of Richard Mark and his select few service,
which to be fair does what it says, SELECT FEW
WINNERS!). For me, football tipsters have fewer
outcomes to chose from, and hence should ensure better
strike rates - that's the theory anyway, although I do
feel like I'm wasting money paying for other people's
footballing opinions when we have a level playing field
- we have the same access to information as they do.
 
I am currently trialling extensively on the back side,
regarding horses, and try to save the Betfair prices at
around 1pm on video so I can try the lay systems I
have. There is some promise to some systems but a
larger database of results will ensure greater accuracy.
Add to this some reader systems and reader tipsters and
there's plenty to keep me out of the Killarney pubs
(curses!)
 
I have found a sort of correlation between prices and
football scores. It's just an observation and is by no
means scientific but it seems to be that prices around
the 1/8 mark will tend to have 4+ goals. Prices around
the 1.8 mark on Betfair tend to signal indecision, or the
likelihood of a tough and tight game for those priced at
1.8. This led me to thinking that rather than backing at
these odds (and let's face it, 1/8 on is highly restrictive),
you can bump up the odds by choosing a bet based
around the likelihood of a mauling.
 
Take Bayern Munich v Energie Cottbus - 1/8 and East
Fife versus Rangers - Rangers were 1/8. The scores -
5-0 to Bayern, and 4-0 to Rangers. Yes a small sample,
but 2 characteristics - no goals scored for outsiders and
4+ goals for the favourites. Betting on the +3.5 goal
market or even, while we have the Asian Handicap
theme firmly in mind, -3 goals for the short odds favs,
will certainly give us value bets.
 
Similarly, any team priced around 1.8 should expect a
battle and the general theme in these games, especially
if the teams are quoted 1.8 away from home, should be
on a tight game. We can approach this again via the
handicap market or the under 2.5 goals market. These
1.8 prices take on greater significance when it's one of
the big boys, like Barcelona away to Osasuna recently.
 
I will start to collect the odds now from Ladbrokes
which I can actually transfer to excel and keep an eye
on scores in qualifying matches. It will be an interesting
little experiment. 
 
Another exciting weekend of sport, with a full
compliment of football, and in this neck of the woods,
Ireland play the Argies (don't mention the war - I
mentioned it once but I think I got away with it!).
Argentina (-3) at 10/11 looks reasonable enough for
me. A form line through France shows that The Pumas
seem to have the edge on Ireland and the boys will
probably be hopping on the Aer Lingus Monday - hope
I'm wrong!
 
Gorgeous George Washington is out of the Queen
Elizabeth II stakes at Ascot alas. The nutter has been
pulled out by Aiden O'Brien - a real pity. I'm looking
forward to it - the Magners is in the fridge, the Kelly
Brook poster has been dusted and it's another marathon
telly betting weekend - hope you meet with some
success.
 
Have a great weekend!  
 
 
Clive
 
 
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