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Maclaren out?
publication date: Nov 16, 2007
Hi
Yes "I'm a celebrity (that most people believed had died but yes I'm alive and happy for the work, oh and the six figure fee comes in handy as will the work that the exposure from this programme will give me after I've been voted out) get me out of here" is back on our TV screens! Malcolm "I am an anarchist (but I also have an accountant) Maclaren" has left already, but I fear that the 'Maclaren out' headlines may be echoed soon enough with the mighty, erm, Three Lions, or 11 multimillionaires as they are also known, facing a week that will determine whether we will be playing in the Euros. It starts with a friendly against Austria, and as you know, friendlies are not betting mediums. Elsewhere the Scots face the Azzuri in a must win game for them. I wish they did an offside market for Pipo " OFFSIDE!" Inzaghi as I would be able to retire. This is an intriguing prospect as the Scots have shown that they can raise their game, and victory over the French proved, as did the recent Champions League efforts, that they are capable of producing a result. With the Italians, 1-0's are de rigueur and I suspect that Pipo "OFFSIDE" Inzaghi could help keep the scoreline down with his patented "Offside" style of football. (As I write Pipo Inzaghi has wondered offside 30 times already and will probably be caught offside on his way to the match). Do the Scots have enough against the famed Italian defence? It all points to an under 2.5 goal trade doesn't it? This is a step up in class for the Scots and if they can play the kind of containing game Rangers did at home against Barcelona, the unders should be safe. I must reiterate the word "trade" though here, as this is not a bet for me, rather I will try and secure some income for my Tefal Head experiment. It's going well, my compounding using Tefal Head's staking plan. Currently at £654 from a £480 betting bank, I am enjoying the fact that I don't have to bust a gut looking for the big win, rather use flexibility and a number of techniques to guarantee me my £9 return for the day (I'm using 2% a day as I feel I can achieve this - it would only be about £3 using the original plan). *********************** So which techniques have I been using this week? *********************** Well one that has been the most profitable has been laying in running. I need specialist software like Fairbot for this and look to capture a £2 lay at odds of 50 or higher. It's high risk but patience enables me to garner £1.80 after commission. I only need 3 races and that's me for the day. I use the bank as leverage here as liabilities can be huge, and couldn't operate this without specialist software. I also trade the horse racing prices before the race begins and try to capture 60p and 70p green screens (I only need 12 of these screens to ensure daily targets -and with the £3 target I only need 4 races). I also use the football markets, although these are not ideal as football trading has a distinct difference to horse racing trading. The former is opinion based, the latter, in a quicker moving market, is price and weight of money based so your opinions don't count regarding the horses running. With football trading you must take a "position" on the likely outcome. With the horse racing, you simply follow the money and back to lay or lay to back in reaction to price movements. I have been nicking a few pennies in the under 4.5 goals market and backing the 1 goal or more in selective games in the total goals market. Of course I have to be sure that the games I chose are most likely to produce at least one goal (a recent example the Spanish Cup with Villarreal taking on lower league opposition - due diligence meant Villarreal were playing a strong side so confidence was high for at least one goal - it finished 4-2!). And then there are. . . *********************** BETFAIR GAMES *********************** I have luckily met all targets without recourse to Betfair games but am mindful that these games can be used to reach daily targets. I really would advise reading the Betfair forum exchange games section and copying and pasting some of the ideas on them (it saves forking out for another EBrOOKeS load of gubbins). I'm still working on my Burt Baccarat but really want risk minimised. I think a blog would be a good idea with this compounding plan as it might give you a good idea as to what I'm doing. I will include it in my blog - check it out here. I think from Sunday - telling you what I did Saturday to
reach (and exceed no doubt) my target. I am still finding it difficult to call it a day after my small £7-8 target has been reached and am wary that overextending yourself will result in losses. I did intend to do a dutching part to the blog to see if I could get sure2profit's risky dutching progressive calculator to work but as you can appreciate small fields in jumps races are not ideal dutching mediums. And by the way, this blog will soon be appearing on the All new singing (strictly come) dancing WRWM website. Now if you haven't checked it out yet, please do now. If you're a current subscriber, for a piddly £15 a year, you can gain access to ALL the back issues of the WRWM newsletter and lots more. Check it out here: http://www.whatreallywinsmoney.com/ With the blog fresh in my mind, I did warn you about the Curse of the Keeling! I have put the trumpet back in its case now, but did manage a nice winner yesterday. The already mentioned small fields that have prevailed this week have made each way betting a lot more difficult but I hope to have turned a corner. I have selected fallers and simply the wrong one in the betting forecast from my shortlists! I'm still happy though that I have a decent system. Incidentally, the price gappers have suddenly started winning when old muggins here writes them up in the blog and says he won't be backing them. What I have done to offend you Betting God, what? *********************** SYSTEM SHOP *********************** I was interested to read about the stock- picking robot called MARL from www.doublingstocks.com and, always willing to try something, I have started to monitor it. It's a simple application where you just press a button and the software runs and then gives a recommendation if there is one. 3 selections so far, predominantly in the USA Stocks Penny Share markets, trading at 3 cents, 16 cents and 13 cents, the potential for the next Microsoft is obviously on my mind (don't tell the publisher!) The programmers photographed pointing at a computer screen look like they play Dungeons and Dragons on a regular basis and are also partial to a bit of Slayer but that didn't stop me! The shares quoted at the moment haven't done anything, and I haven't fully looked into the attendant costs with buying US Penny stocks, but, with the small prices of the shares, exposure can be minimised until Marl Proves itself. I keep the shares in my yahoo portfolio to check against. I have also signed up for their newsletter and look forward to receiving the first on Sunday. The price for all this is very reasonable (unless I've missed something) and I hope to report any potential to you in future issues. I have also got the lay formula from Steve (wait for it, this one is NOT an EBrOOKeS production - I know he must be in hospital or his hands have fallen off or something) Davidson. This guys an Aussie and makes his money through affiliate deals - I look forward to trialling it (or some of you trialling it?) - like their laypro88 there's an accompanying staking spreadsheet which impresses me as staking is key to laying with its attendant liability issue. *********************** MORE LAYING *********************** I have had a look at Tony Gibson's new laying system called Lifetime's best and the potential is there with this one too! The prices could be discouraging to a few - he has a price limit of 11 on his lays (taxi for the Maria Staking Plan I think!), but the logic is most certainly there, and as with most lay systems, the author has simply identified a weakness and built a system around that perceived weakness. I have mentioned it before with laying - find a weakness and exploit it, be it once only runners in maidens, maiden hurdle favourites, favourites in competitive handicaps etc. Find a weakness and paper trade until you are sufficiently happy that that weakness you have found will continue producing losers! I am also waiting for the Tail End System from The Racing Post, intrigued as I was with its apparent ability to find big priced horses. With big priced horses in mind, the 16/1 system seems ideally suited (for those who can follow the live market) to the jumps. Desert Quest a recent example - 66/1 in the betting forecast, opens up at 20/1 and down to 16/1 and BOOM he wins. Similar with Franco recently 20/1 into 12/1 and wins, and more spectacularly a horse called Veloso who was quoted at 16/1 and opened up at (wait for it) 3/1 and won. Now this is what I call a monster gamble and connections I am sure had a shilling or 2 on the horse, but let me ask you - without the comparison between the betting forecast and the live betting market, would you have given Veloso a second glance? So look out for potential 16/1 system selections this season, particularly in handicap chases where horses are debuting over the chase fences, maiden hurdles, and national hunt flat races. Don't forget those "out of sight" racecourses where stable gambles are rife - little market moves, little potential stable gambles which don't raise an eyebrow unless you know how to see them! Elsewhere system wise and a couple of readers have performed very well - one has a 92% strike rate with his lays and I am, as expected, eyeing this one with great interest. Another reader has formulated an automated bot for selecting 16/1 system selections, so he tells me, and, of course, I am keeping an eye of this because if this 16/1 system can be automated then "we're laughing fishcakes!" I'll certainly keep you posted. I've been mostly updating results for the next newsletter this week and a couple of the systems I'm trying out have a degree of potential. The computapik I mentioned last week is one piece of A4 paper, but is easy to operate. I have been trialling it since 1st October and will update in the next newsletter. I have now purchased the Fast Tracks excel spreadsheet which makes results storage a lot easier, which is ideal for the new website www.whatreallywinsmoney.com, and once collated, I'll have my team of men in white coats (well Emily) upload the spreadsheets onto the website so you can inspect results for yourself. I also want to include some of the better reader systems on the website too - these will be exclusive to WRWM readers only and, as I mentioned, one or 2 of them have real potential - AND THERE'S NOT A STEVEN EBROOKES IN SIGHT! Once the newsletter's finished I can concentrate on capturing, via video, some of the systems which will be made available on the website and should clarify systems and strategies so you can model from them. Moving pictures really are a great boon in getting information across. Remember, the website is here: http://www.whatreallywinsmoney.com/ *********************** EXCITING NEWS: LAY PROFIT ALERT *********************** Before I go, some exciting news on the all new Lay Profit Alert. From the same publishers as your very own What Really Wins Money, this daily lay tipping service that uses the Maria Staking Plan is firmly back on track. Since the new editor - Kev Lane - took over back in July, he has turned a £1,000 starting bank into more than £1,650! We have waited a long time to make sure that the performance was worth shouting about. Only now have we decided to open the doors again for new subscribers. So look out for info on how you can get involved next week. I hope you have a great weekend - my thumb has been practicing all week to Sky plus Kelly on Strictly Come (to Killarney) Dancing (if you want although I could take you out for a meal). Come on the Scots and, oh, good luck to Eng- er-land in their titanic clash with Austria. Clive |
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