TODAY'S RACING AND YESTERDAY'S FOOTBALL

publication date: Nov 22, 2007

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Hi, well what was it then? I hope you chose to lay England rather than trade the under 2.5 goals market , especially with Willie Carson in goal for England! My Crouch and Lampard scorer bets came off which was really pleasing. The lay of England came off in spectacularl fashion. Trading out after Croatia's early goal would have ensured a nice profit, but how to do this?
STEP 1
LAy England at 1.74 on Betfair.
STEP 2
Wait for something to happen when the market goes in running. The first major incident was, of course, Willie Carson's inability to hold a long range shot ( probably because of his lack of heght - if only Clare BAlding was there with him!). The market suspends and reforms in response to the new scoreline. Of course England now need 2 goals to win the game, so their price is going to be far higher than 1.74 isn't it! 1.74 was the price at 0-0, but with Croatia scoring, the price increased rapidly to reflect the difficult task facing England
STEP 3
Get your stake back and create a green screen. If you have automated software like betangel basic at www.betangel.com, or fairbot at www.binteko.com, clicking on the green up button will do all the calculations for you .
I would always spread profit through the home win, draw, and away win, because, as you saw yesterday, anything can happen in football.
We have essentially bought low and sold high! When another opportunity comes up I will capture this on video and upload it here for you.

TODAY'S RACING
22ND NOVEMBER
Well the racing is poor, and has been all week. The great thing is though, the bookmakers have to price up every race, BUT we don't have to bet on every race.
PRICE GAPPERS
THese are horses who are favourites and there is a significant price gap to the 2nd favourite in the RAcing Post's BEtting Forecast - check it out for yourself at www.racingpost.co.uk
150 HEREFORD
BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Pace Shot, 5/1 Soviet Sceptre, 6/1 Arthurs Dream, 10/1 Mondo, 11/1 Coup D´Etat, 22/1 Rhetorical, 25/1 Star Berry, 33/1 Breeder´s Folly, Silver Island, 50/1 Lake Suprima, Tamworth, 66/1 Lucky Shame .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A race that revolves around PACE SHOT, who was much better class than these rivals when last seen out in April 2006. It is a touch disconcerting to see him reintroduced at this level but, on the other hand, the stable have adopted a similar strategy on occasion in the past with long-absent horses and, if a significant proportion of his former ability remains, he will be very hard to beat

Here's an example today - look at the price gap between Pace Shot and Soviet Sceptre. You will note above though, that I won't be availing myself of this one
A 500+ day absence in a seller is not what I want to see - yes "if a significant proportion of his former ability remains, he will be very hard to beat"but that's a bit "if" and although Pace Shot may be able to over come the absence in this class drop, I won't entertain an odds on shot in a race of this type.

I also look at each way bets, as each way betting is really my preferred form of betting because if we select correctly, then as long as our selection places, we are in a good position becasue, largely, our stakes are returned, thus conserving the betting bank
The characteristics for me each way bets include a small field ( 8 runners ideal) , a shortish priced favourite , and 2 or 3 perceived outsiders - I say "perceived" because I am only going by price. Here's an example from today
230 WINCANTON
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Shanxi Girl, 3/1 Hugo Wolf, 11/2 Saint Godegrand, 6/1 Maori Legend, 8/1 M´Lord, 10/1 Farmer Brent, 25/1 Festival Flyer, 33/1 See More Jock .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: At first glance the handicapper hasn't done SHANXI GIRL any obvious favours but she shapes as though she'll improve plenty for this longer trip and, if she takes after her dam, who was a prolific winner for the stable, this course and ground will pose no problems for heIt's been a long time coming - an 8 runner field - short price fav and 2 outsiders, leaving us with 5 possible each way contenders. I will opt for Saint Godegrand

Can you see the characterisitcs. THe short list will be Hugo Wolf, Saint Godegrand, Maori LEgend, M'Lord and Farmer Brent. If Festival Flyer and See More Jack can be safely discounted, this leaves these 5 to fight it out for a top 3 finish ,securing a payout if they place ,with an added bonus if they win. I chose Saint Godegrand for no other reason than the fact the horse was 3rd named in th e betting forecast. I will back it each way and hope it places.

There is nothing else for me today at all save this one race, where perhaps we can go in with 2 each way selections like Saint Godegrand and M'Lord and increase our chances of a return.

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