MONDAY'S RACING
publication date: Dec 3, 2007
Back on track after broadband problems this weekend
Fakenham begins with a juvenile maiden hurdle - now we know all about the performance of short priced market leaders in these races - can the 1250 be approached from an each way perspective
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Hall Of Fame, 7/2 Etoile D´Or, 9/2 Kassuta, 5/1 Ardmaddy, 8/1 Royal Guest, 10/1 Title Deed, 12/1 Cavendish, 33/1 Artistic Liason, Book Of Facts, Safe Investment, 50/1 For Eileen, Little Hotpotch, Tia Jade, 200/1 Art Of Being .
This is a big field but look at the number of horses priced 33/1 or better - 7 horses out of 14 - this leaves 7 with potential here if we can assume the betting forecaster has accurately assessed the chances. I'll chance Ardmaddy here, just outside the obvious market leaders
120 FAKENHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 2/5 Desert Quest, 11/4 Space Cowboy, 20/1 Bluecoat, Supreme Leisure, 33/1 Boscall Hill, Champagne Rossini .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Less rain the better for DESERT QUEST though the same can be said about chief threat Space Cowboy and it will be a shock should the Nicholls horse fail to collect.[AWJ]Desert Quest is out again and another very short price - SpaceCowboy is the obvious option here - place only with 6 the field
320 FAKENHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Transvestite, 4/1 Follow On, 9/2 Run To Me, 6/1 Ramvaswani, Tip Toes, 10/1 Sir Leonard, 50/1 Good Cause, 100/1 Meantime, Miss St Albans, Redhot Fillypepper, Southburgh .
Another maiden hurdle with Transvestite installed as the short price market leader based on flat form and one previous hurdle run - is this enough to go lumping on - well not for me - again with maiden hurdles I do like to look for an each way angle into the race - and again 5 horses are over 50/1, and all things being equal, can be safely discounted - this leaves 6 horses, including the favourite, vying for the place only payouts.
Again it's more luck than judgement that we select the correct horse for each way purposes - Ramvaswani has been clipped into 7/2 which piques interest. I may stick with him at 7/2, this represents ok each way price
FOLKSTONE
Soft ground (heavy in places) will no doubt throw a spanner in the works at this meeting.
All races bar 2 are under 7 runners and cannot be approached from an each way perspective. Of the 2 that are 8+runners, one is a bumper ( where the live market is really a prerequisite before betting) and the other is a handicap chase - these race types have thrown up big winners. It's not like a flat handicap of course - these handicap animals have obstalces to overcome in soft ground - 6 horses priced under 10/1 show how competitive this race is - if I were to play ( which I won't given ground and race type) I would look outside the obvious market leaders
WOLVERHAMPTON
No predicted ground concerns here and NO OBSTACLES!
All races at Wolves are class 6 - ie low grade fare kicking off with an amateur riders race.
With Kempton those drawn in stall 1 have little chance - it would seem that those drawn on the outer stalls at Wolves have a distinct disadvantage so bear this in minf especially in biggish fields over sprint distances -ere is a possible price gapper in Zennerman in the 210 at Wolves but it is in a seller
With such a poor quality horse wise, we can leave Wolves largely alone - infact he cards today are wholly unappealing
There are too many small field races for any viable each way options today. Soft ground at Folkstone tempers confidence in getting involved there.
A poor start to the week but there's no point putting up a bet just for the sake of it - there'll be other days with better opportunities - we have to work with the cards offered.
FOOTBALL
Only one game of interest this evening with Man Utd taking on Fulham at Old Trafford - it looks as if Fulham may have an opportunity to score this evening which will make things good for an over 2.5 goal trade - if we can assume the above then Man Utd need 2 to win. With Rooney set to return, there may be mileage in backing him and Tevez to score anytime - at odds of 2.2 for the pair we can back both to level stakes.
I'm going to chance backing the draw?Man Utd half time/full time result in the hope that Fulham adopt a defensive set up like Derby and Birmingham - making them hard to break down, yet eventually succumbing to class in the end. At odds of 5.3 its worth a small investment.
Fakenham begins with a juvenile maiden hurdle - now we know all about the performance of short priced market leaders in these races - can the 1250 be approached from an each way perspective
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Hall Of Fame, 7/2 Etoile D´Or, 9/2 Kassuta, 5/1 Ardmaddy, 8/1 Royal Guest, 10/1 Title Deed, 12/1 Cavendish, 33/1 Artistic Liason, Book Of Facts, Safe Investment, 50/1 For Eileen, Little Hotpotch, Tia Jade, 200/1 Art Of Being .
|
|
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: HALL OF FAME just about edges it on hurdling form and is fancied to see out the trip better than Kassuta should the forecast rain arrive.[AWJ] |
120 FAKENHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 2/5 Desert Quest, 11/4 Space Cowboy, 20/1 Bluecoat, Supreme Leisure, 33/1 Boscall Hill, Champagne Rossini .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Less rain the better for DESERT QUEST though the same can be said about chief threat Space Cowboy and it will be a shock should the Nicholls horse fail to collect.[AWJ]Desert Quest is out again and another very short price - SpaceCowboy is the obvious option here - place only with 6 the field
320 FAKENHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Transvestite, 4/1 Follow On, 9/2 Run To Me, 6/1 Ramvaswani, Tip Toes, 10/1 Sir Leonard, 50/1 Good Cause, 100/1 Meantime, Miss St Albans, Redhot Fillypepper, Southburgh .
|
|
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Very few to consider seriously and four-time Flat winner TRANSVESTITE looks the one to beat, as it wasn't a bad race in which he kicked off over hurdles at Kempton.[AWJ] |
Again it's more luck than judgement that we select the correct horse for each way purposes - Ramvaswani has been clipped into 7/2 which piques interest. I may stick with him at 7/2, this represents ok each way price
FOLKSTONE
Soft ground (heavy in places) will no doubt throw a spanner in the works at this meeting.
All races bar 2 are under 7 runners and cannot be approached from an each way perspective. Of the 2 that are 8+runners, one is a bumper ( where the live market is really a prerequisite before betting) and the other is a handicap chase - these race types have thrown up big winners. It's not like a flat handicap of course - these handicap animals have obstalces to overcome in soft ground - 6 horses priced under 10/1 show how competitive this race is - if I were to play ( which I won't given ground and race type) I would look outside the obvious market leaders
WOLVERHAMPTON
No predicted ground concerns here and NO OBSTACLES!
All races at Wolves are class 6 - ie low grade fare kicking off with an amateur riders race.
With Kempton those drawn in stall 1 have little chance - it would seem that those drawn on the outer stalls at Wolves have a distinct disadvantage so bear this in minf especially in biggish fields over sprint distances -ere is a possible price gapper in Zennerman in the 210 at Wolves but it is in a seller
With such a poor quality horse wise, we can leave Wolves largely alone - infact he cards today are wholly unappealing
There are too many small field races for any viable each way options today. Soft ground at Folkstone tempers confidence in getting involved there.
A poor start to the week but there's no point putting up a bet just for the sake of it - there'll be other days with better opportunities - we have to work with the cards offered.
FOOTBALL
Only one game of interest this evening with Man Utd taking on Fulham at Old Trafford - it looks as if Fulham may have an opportunity to score this evening which will make things good for an over 2.5 goal trade - if we can assume the above then Man Utd need 2 to win. With Rooney set to return, there may be mileage in backing him and Tevez to score anytime - at odds of 2.2 for the pair we can back both to level stakes.
I'm going to chance backing the draw?Man Utd half time/full time result in the hope that Fulham adopt a defensive set up like Derby and Birmingham - making them hard to break down, yet eventually succumbing to class in the end. At odds of 5.3 its worth a small investment.
8 Comments Posted Leave a comment