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Why heavy going might suit this system . . .

publication date: Dec 7, 2007
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Hello

Well the racing this week has really been
affected by the weather, and readers of my
blog will note that I take a very cautious
attitude when I see the words heavy and soft
when describing the ground.

I go so far as to tread carefully with system
bets such as the Saver when we have heavy
ground because it can become a level playing
field. It is good discipline perhaps to just leave
heavy going meetings altogether until ground
becomes more stable. Watch out for ground
conditions this weekend. It may temper my
enthusiasm despite the quality racing we are
assured of on Sunday.

Interestingly the "hard to beat" system has
been performing well. Simply look for the
words "hard to beat" or a derivative thereof
accompanied with a price gap in the betting
forecast and we have a strong win candidate.
If there is heavy ground I tend to just back for
the place only. It's a simple system again
requiring no form analysis so is ideally suited
to those of limited experience.

Another betting forecast system worth
mentioning is the " back the shortest priced
horse mentioned the betting forecast from all
meetings that day at "www.racingpost.co.uk"
system (may need a bit of a copywriter's
touch I think!)

Since September it has returned a 4.6 point
profit, and considering it is extremely easy to
use, this is impressive. Backing to 10% of
your betting bank helps increase profits.
Longest winning run has been 11, (there has
also been a winning run of 7 in my trial
period). Prices are very short indeed generally
which may be off-putting for some, but to a
nominal £1000 bank, a profit of £468 since
September can't really be sniffed at.

With 2008 on our doorstep, I will monitor this
really easy system and see if a year's worth of
bets under jumps and flat codes, will produce
the strike rate necessary to make these shorties
profit.

With 4 consecutive runs of 10 or more
selections placed only, there may be some
profit to be gained by using a place-only
staking plan accounting for a maximum
winning run of 10 and stopping after that?
Some food for thought, although prices for
these selections in the place-only market are
shorter than Ronnie Corbett after a piano has
been dropped on his head!

Other place-only systems you may like to
consider include the Top 6 Handicap System I
have mentioned previously - still performs
well for horses over the evens - 2/1 price
bracket I use for win only bets.

Hot off the press is another reader email
regaling me about a 2 week 57% strike rate
system I sent him to test (great news is its free
and if the strike rate continues you'll be the
first to know)  - again funnily enough it is a
handicap based system. What chance adding
this to the 2 handicap systems I'm monitoring
already?

Again, without testers help, I can't forward on
this information to you!

FOOTY

I have been using an interesting dutching
method this week. It's really simple and here's
what you look out for.

If there are 2 horses (or teams or outcomes)
priced at decimal odds of 2.00 and bigger, we
can back both to level stakes and still profit if
on of them wins.

Carry this on further. If there are 4 selections
priced bigger than 4, with the shortest price
being 4, we can back all 4 to level stakes and
still profit if one of them wins, but break even
if the horse priced at 4 wins.

I tried this midweek with the Newcastle v
Arsenal match, covering 0-0, 0-1, 1-1, 1-2,
and 1-3 and won with the 1-1 scoreline. A
slight profit made but worthy of future
investigation I think.

Why do I mention this? Well I am going for
an almighty bet in the Mayweather versus
Hatton boxing in the early hours of the 9th
December.

You can actually back both Mayweather and
Hatton to win in rounds 1 to 12 to level stakes
and profit if one of them produces the goods
in those rounds.

Personally I think this is a great bet, and to £2
stakes is a little expensive (covering 24
outcomes), but the odds ensure that if one of
the boxers wins by knockout or retirement
within the 12 rounds we are guaranteed a
profit - maximum £172, minimum £32.

This is a different kind of dutching and takes
into account the fact that the lowest odds are
40 and the biggest odds are 110 for a Hatton
victory in Round 1.

Who knows what's going to happen? Surely
covering a win within 12 rounds is a decent
bet! The bet will cost me £48 but I'm willing
to have a go. Being in running hopefully I can
do a bit of trading. The market indicates a
Mayweather points victory is most likely at
odds of 2.4 currently. Instead of the dutch
another option is to lay the Mayweather points
bet  - I can see the odds increasing if the
Hitman wins a couple of rounds.

It's going to be a magnificent fight whatever
happens, and this will definitely give me an
interest!

This type of dutching, I would suggest, is
ideal for correct score betting in football.



I, BETBOT
No, not the blockbuster movie starring Delia
"Let's be having you" Smith as a futuristic
cop tracking down a killer robot, but betting
bots.

In the New Year I would like to trial some
select bots and I will need your help. If I track
multiple bots myself, things may become a
little complicated. So I am willing to dedicate
some of the monthly shopping budget to
sustained trialling of a couple of bots, which
will automatically place bets to prearranged
betting criteria - so please get in touch if you
can leave a bot to run on your computer - I
will look to buy in the new year. What
particularly interest me is the lay bot at, erm,
www.laybot.com as the lay system it uses may
have some potential.

So get in touch is you can help in this regard
in the New Year - at the usual email address.

BACK TO GSY

Yes this time next week I'm back to
Guernsey, having lined my stomach with
Stout far too often in Ireland. Looking forward
to seeing the nephew and nieces again after 3
months and some old friends for a pint of the
local and a chat about this and that! The rain
has been relentless in County Kerry and I
hope for a glimpse of sunshine in the sunshine
isle!

So I'll be looking forward to a break, probably
too much alcohol, bad cracker jokes, hyper
youngsters up at 5am, snoozes infront of the
box as Her Maj recounts her annus not so
horribilis because she just signed up to a
glossy brochure tipster and Dear old Kelly on
the Telly getting her own talk show?

Hope you have a great weekend - will include
footy bets on the website blog at
http://www.whatreallywinsmoney.com/ and
the usual address as well as my usual thoughts
on the gee gees!

Cheers

Clive

PS: After a lot of technical problems and more
hard number crunching, I can finally give you
a heads up on a very exciting lay system that
could have realistically turned £1,000 into
£17,500 this year! Full details tomorrow . . .
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