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5 JAN

publication date: Jan 5, 2008
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Not really an ideal day to restart the blog with heavy ground at most venues today Heavy at Chepstow leaves me reluctant to get involved. At Cork it's soft to heavy.
125 CORK
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Ninetieth Minute, 2/1 Mister Top Notch, 5/1 Time To Sell, 10/1 Waly´s Own, 14/1 Garranagree, 16/1 Freneys Well, 20/1 Kriegspiel .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The step up in trip here should suit NINETIETH MINUTE very well indeed, and this highly promising individual can continue his winning ways here. After chasing home Majestic Concorde in a hot maiden hurdle at Punchestown, he probably didn?t run to that level in winning a Gowran maiden hurdle last month when he was a shade fortunate to beat Sky Hall by a neck. The runner-up did frank the form by scoring subsequently at Navan, but the one thing to take out of the performance of the selection that day was how inadequate the 2m trip seems to be for him. Indeed, today?s trip may be short of his best also, but he looks to be an improving horse of immense promise that can come through this test.\n
Again the ground does not make this an ideal race, but Ninetieth Minute looks solid. He may be worth a punt if still evens. Perhaps backing Ninetieth Minute if still evens and over along with Mister Top Notch if still 2/1 will leave break even if Ninetieth Minute

335 CORK
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 J´y Vole, 3/1 Carraig Na Gcapall, 10/1 Accordion Opera, Myfirstanonlylove, The Model Rebel, 12/1 Well Corned, 14/1 Getyourfingerout, Strylea, 16/1 Brownstown Lass, Da Sharp Lady, Manorville, 20/1 Croghillpenny, Hazelwood Lady, Robertstown Rover, Rock´n Roll Kate, Storming Rose, 25/1 Ardicoan .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: She has never jumped a fence in public before, but J?Y VOLE stands head and shoulders above these in terms of ability and cannot be opposed readily if at all. She cemented her place as one of last season?s leading juvenile hurdlers with her excellent fifth to Katchit in the Triumph Hurdle last March. Described as her trainer as a lovely big filly, chasing was seemingly always to be her game and the fact that she won first time out last season should allay any fears about her fitness. The only question is whether she can jump. If she can, she should be far too good for these.\n
Carraig Na Gcapall would be the obvious one to take advantage if the selection is below-par or otherwise. This is her third run over fences and she went closest when outstayed by Neighbours Wager at Limerick over Christmas. She is capable of better, but a repeat of that would see her involved today although she doesn?t look to be in the same class as the selection.\n

J'y Vole " stands head and shoulders" above these and "cannot be opposed readily if at all".
Very confident. Currently 4/7. May be worth following, although you might be put off by the soft to heavy ground conditions and the fact this is a beginners chase and the horse has never jumped before in public.

750 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Electric Warrior, 7/2 Landucci, 4/1 Waterline Twenty, 16/1 Boogie Dancer, 33/1 Safe Investment .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The big three are all previous C&D winners and ELECTRIC WARRIOR, who's well up to his current mark of 86, has 6lb and more in hand all round at the weights.[GW]

WIth landucci and Waterline Twenty both currently 4/1, I would back these 2 against Electric Warrior in the hope the jolly disappoints. We will be getting 3/1 eqivalent for the nearest market rivals if backing them to level stakes. A slightly speculative bet but worth considering given this is a claimer.

355 WINCANTON
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Oniphlaure, 4/1 Quarry Town, 5/1 Carlyon Bay, 13/2 Gulf, 14/1 Cullahill, Different Lot, 20/1 Shake The Barley, 25/1 Benedict Bay, Garleton, 33/1 Millbrook Meadow, 50/1 Indian Doctor, Judgement Of Error .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: An uncompetitive race in which three stand out as major players, ONIPHLAURE (nap), Quarry Town and Gulf, unless Carlyon Bay is very strong in the betting on this belated debut. Gulf was a smart stayer on the Flat but has the most to prove now and preference is for Oniphlaure, who will have good prospects if reproducing the form of his last-time-out Warwick maiden hurdle win. He raced a touch lazily then so first-time blinkers could well be a help now. [MCu]

Carlyon Bay each way may be worth chancing in what looks a 4 horse race.

SHORTEST BETTING FORECAST FAVOURITE OF THE DAY
100 SANDOWN
Chomba Womba 1/3

Backing these has been profitable since September 2007 so we'll see how these progress.

A day where ground everywhere is soft or worse so to be ultra disciplined personally I will keep my powder dry. It's just that time of year as well so patience is required. This applies I suppose to the system bets as well - heavy ground is just not conducive to betting.

I will probably concentrate on the football today.

A number of FA Cup matches today signal supposed " easy pickings " for some at odds which are very restrictive.

I can confidently use my accumulator strategy today with premiership teams against weaker opposition AND AT HOME, just to enhance the odds. So get ready to roll on the floor laughing as one of the teams  draws or loses.

Chelsea, Everton , Blackburn and Spurs at home in an accumulator will enhance the odds. The Spurs game looks the worrying game but Reading have come out this week and said that the Premiership is THE ONLY FOCUS for them.

Elsewhere Barcelona are 4/5 away to Mallorca and may be worthy of laying with a view to backing at a higher price as the score stays at 0-0 or Majorca score first. The 4/5 indicates a tough away game for Barca

Gretna have actually been impressive recently having drawn with Hearts and Kilmarnock and beaten Dundee United away from home. At 5/1 they may be worth a throw away bet. Alternatively a lay of Inverness at 1/2 will cover the draw.

Huddersfield v Birmingham. Birmingham surely need to focus on premiership survival don't they? Laying them at odds on with an eye on trading may be the angle in here.

Over 2.5 goals for Swansea at home today given their demolition job in the FA Cup at home against lower opposition

HALF TIME FULL TIME

Here's some teams I'll be looking to back half time/full time

CHELSEA ( although they predominantly score in the 2nd half, this is a steep drop in class of opposition)

WOLVES - poor home form in the Championship - facing a Conference Premiership team today at home, and the home supporters will be expecting.

1 Comments Posted Leave a comment

steve moss (preston)
I will confidently Not use your accumulator strategy again! LOL
 

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