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18/1

publication date: Jan 18, 2008
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Well, Inter Milan again put a few past Reggina so, in hindsight, 1.71 about half time/full time was a steal! At least I backed Hernan Crespo to score and he obliged with the first goal at fair odds.



Neardown beauty won the 230  - again with hindsight Haroldini for the place given he moved in the morning market .

Diriculous, as I envisioned, didn't win and I was wise to leave alone - big weight thanks to previous wins and a drop in distance all conspired against the horse

Pomme Tiepy was a great in runner for me, the price reduced by .20 points quickly allowing more conservative traders to get out. I was happy with the general consistent drop in price throughout the race and held on for 1.10 having backed around 1.70 pre race
The dutch in the 650 was outdone by a photo finish and Distant Sun's win

The day for me was salvaged by Hernan Crespo.

Catterick is soft (heavy in places) again, with a suggestion that ground will become heavier as the day progresses.
1240
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Monash Lad, 10/1 Devils Delight,  Rotuma, 12/1 Obara D´Avril, 14/1 Boing Boing, 16/1 Darkshape,  Devilfishpoker Com,  Lindseyfield Lodge,  Martin House, 20/1 Errol,  New Wish, 25/1 Pendle Forest, 33/1 Scuzme, 66/1 Mischief Night .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: MONASH LAD's superiority in a similar race last week was exaggerated by the fall two out of his main pursuer but it is likely that a reproduction of that form will see him follow up. Obara D'Avril may be the best each-way alternativ

Mention must be made of this distinct price gapper  in a very unsuitable selling hurdle over 2 miles on soft ground. All other horses are double figure odds so 10/11 represents a fair price (thanks to field size and race type) - again in an ideal world, this would be better approached with an each way selection.

320
 BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Media Man, 7/2 Fencote Gold,  Loch Oscaig, 7/1 Tom´s Toybox, 10/1 St Pancras, 12/1 Watch The Wind, 14/1 Nevsky Bridge, 16/1 Custom Design, 25/1 Toulouse Express .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The consistent trailblazer MEDIA MAN remains in good form, should handle conditions and could well prove hard to peg back. Loch Oscaig and Fencote Gold can fight out minor honours.[BDO]

This is a race we can approach from an each way perspective with ( from the early price market) 4 of the 9 at 16/1 or bigger leaving 5 probable place/win contenders
This is tricky for me as we have a "could well prove hard to peg back" in the favourite Media Man showing at 2/1 currently - as a safe bet, Media Man for the place looks a good bet. For those seeking a proper each way alternative with the hope that Media Man under performs, we have Fencote Gold, Loch Oscaig, and Tom's Toybox - the latter would interest me each way

330 Wolves
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Age Of Reason, 6/4 Pacifism, 5/1 Sweet Hope, 14/1 Elusive Lady, 25/1 Marino Prince .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: With doubts whether the blinkers will work so well again for Sweet Hope, not to mention the suitability of the trip, this looks between AGE OF REASON and Pacifism. Both created a favourable impression when winning their maidens but Mark Johnston's runner may be marginally better suited by this trip and is taken to retain his unbeaten record.

Playing the probabilities here, 5 runners -2 market leaders both at over evens allowing them to be backed to level stakes currently-morning prices 13/8 and 6/4.

435
 BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Buscador, 5/1 Alasil,  Tuning Fork, 15/2 Schinken Otto, 8/1 Anduril, 10/1 Take It There, 20/1 Christalini, 25/1 Bahhmirage,  Mind That Fox,  Tequila Sheila, 66/1 Montiona .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: BUSCADOR (nap) has gained all his nine wins over this extended 1m1f, comes here in good form and is expected to make a bold bid to defy a penalty. Alasil may give him most to do

Another potential price gapper in Buscador in an amateur riders handicap - it is the fact it is amateur riders which dampens my enthusiasm. There's no real " will be very hard to beat" etc from Spotlight. If you do back him you'll be getting odds against which is a positive.
A possible place only selection for me  - put off by the penalty and the amateur riders

FOOTY
It looks like French Ligue 2 games this evening along with a smattering of Belgian games.Bruges interests me at  4/7 away to Mons. They have won their 3 most recent away games by a solitary goal and a 2-1 scoreline to them.
From a sequencing perspective, surely they won't record another 2-1 victory will they? 4/7 indicates this is going to be a tight affair so I will personally chance the 1-0 to Bruges, the 1-1 and the 2-0 to Bruges and avoid the 2-1 in the hope it isn't replicated a 4th time away from home.

This is a highly speculative bet but a good angle in I think. With odds of 7.6, 10 and 7.2 small stakes have the potential to return decent profits.

3 Comments Posted Leave a comment

steve moss (preston)
0-1 to club bruge, nice one!
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