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Beaten by a postie, a brickie and a teacher
publication date: Jan 19, 2008
Hi,
A big, big upset midweek... The Swansea boys were outdone by a postie, a brickie and a teacher (and 8 others) reminding us dear punters that there is no such thing as a sure thing (apart from Liverpool beating Luton at home and The Toon suddenly consenting to play football as soon as the magic word "Keegan" was uttered on Tyneside) With Keegan returning, I look forward to seeing other returnees in Peter "ladies favourite" Beardsley up front, Chris "Diamond lights" Waddle on the left and Paul "Gazza" Gascoigne working his magic in midfield. Cue a raft of over 2.5 goal bets on all remaining Newcastle games as they attack attack attack attack ( and concede, concede, concede making it 4-3!) An altogether interesting week on the football betting front in particular... FOOTBALL A little bit of detective work in the Liverpool game could have helped you get a bet of 2.14 for a team 1.10 to win (bet £100 to win a tenner) . Clue number 1 - the over 2.5 goals market was priced up at 1.39 -incredibly short. What can we glean from this? The market makers on Betfair ( the majority anyway) expect at least 3 goals to be scored. If we can assume this should happen then will this not have a knock on effect for the over 3.5 goals market? With the game in running, if 3 goals are scored, surely the 2.14 for over 3.5 goals will drop dramatically - and so it did -to 1.28. A superb trading opportunity, or for those bettors rather than traders, the chance of backing the over 3.5 goals market coming in with ½ hour of the game to go! With European football cup games taking precedence , there were a number of games with extreme mismatches and me, being a MUG PUNTER, decided on a couple of accumulators with the most obvious teams. Odds for these accumulators pushed the very short odds favourites to evens and bigger and YES, they came in! I couldn't believe it as accumulators are the staple diet of the bookmaker and the type of bet he loves to take. So they can come in! and as part of your staking plan offer decent enough odds. I must say though, that accumulators are not the best way to profit long term. In small doses, in Cup games throughout Europe, they can pay (especially in the early rounds of Cups). Elsewhere this week I was reminded of the importance of research especially in these cup games. Real Madrid, 2-1 down for the 1st leg, left Van Nistelrooy and Robinho on the bench - where's the goal going to come from? Raul - he's so old he needs his lunch liquidised! Barcelona - no Ronaldinho ( dentist appointment?), Etoo(African Cup), and Messi - where are the goals going to come from? Conclusion - NO BET! A quick look at teams' websites can help in your decision making. HORSES From a horse racing perspective, it has been a week where the all weather has really taken over with poor ground and abandonments, and with these all weather meetings ,there have been a number of opportunities to dutch market leaders where the market indicates the likelihood of a 2 horse race. If you look over the past week on my blog at http://www.whatreallywinsmoney that all of these dutches have come good. The rules are as follows: 2 MARKET LEADERS - prices must be over evens with the mimimum price evens (if one horse is evens then you will break even if backing to level stakes) 3 MARKET LEADERS -minimum price must be 3/1. By backing 3 horses at 3/1 or over you will profit if one of them wins, and if, as has been the case this week, the favourite in an 8 runner race is 3/1 then we have nearly half the field running for us ( infact yesterday there were 3 horses priced 11/4, 3/1 and 10/3 (you would have made a slight loss on the 11/4 horse had he won because his odds are below 3/1 ) in a 6 runner race! Surely probability is on our side that we have covered the winner? It is worth a bet isn't it? As I said last week this can be transferred to the Winning Margin bets that appear in selected games. If the odds are telling you that 2 teams are closely matched (recent example Man City and West Ham), surely opting for a neutral bet (ie we are not siding with a team) is a good course of action, and with the presumption that the game will be close, a goal type bet is a good one. Remembering the rule that if there are 2 outcomes we want to back, the minimum odds of the shortest priced must be 2. And this occurs quite a lot in Winning Margin bets with a 0 goal margin generally 3.4 or over and a 1 goal margin 2.2 or over ( by backing both we cover 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, and so on) ****************************** DON'T MISS MY DAILY BLOG If you haven't already done so, get reading my blog at: http://www.whatreallywinsmoney Become a member of the site and you can join the forum, which is buzzing with comments and tips on systems and betting strategies. http://www.whatreallywinsmoney ****************************** NEWSLETTER NEARLY WITH YOU This week's been mostly finalising the newsletter and there's a couple of really impressive laying systems which have performed consistently and profitably over a 3 month period. The only problem with them is they are live market systems which is a real pain - I'll do some digging to see if there is any way advantage can be taken of current exceptional performance for those unable to follow the live betting market. I only hope, as the old adage goes, that future gains will replicate past performance! You can get access to all my back issues on my website http://www.whatreallywinsmoney THE LEVELLER No not the crusty 90's folk beat combo from Brighton with dogs on strings, but the free casino strategy - well I haven't lost with it yet - another gain while trying out yesterday but a word of warning. My instinct tells me that this is a great resource for daily target profits a la Tefal Head staking plan rather than a concerted session. I still have a sense that the casino software will suss you out, as happened to me yesterday using Betfair's Casino - after 2 hours of profiting suddenly I had 3 occasions in quick succession of numbers I did not want - coincidence? Well I took the profit any way before hand -perhaps it was bad luck - perhaps I'll ring my showbiz pals mulder and Scully to investigate? FIXTURES An interesting weekend of fixtures - I have been doing well with the football of late - will it continue this weekend? Well, read the blog to find out! http://www.whatreallywinsmoney I sincerely hope so because I back pretty much everything I write on the blog, hence my desire to provide quality. Yes some bets go awry, but good staking and money management will account for the inevitable losers. AND FINALLY Have a great weekend - I'll be working through testers feedback this weekend. Thank you to those who have provided regular and comprehensive feedback - you know who you are - it really has helped uncover a couple of systems will real promise which I can pass on to everyone else. Until next time, Clive |
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