20/1

publication date: Jan 20, 2008
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Starting at the end , it was good to get Silver Hotspur beaten  - another, yes you guessed it, multiple handicap winner running with a penalty. Binocular won for the dutch, the 220 dutch was foiled  (heavy ground and the 2 market leaders going off too fast), Another good lay in Psychomodo, I didn't watch the race but went by prices. I should have stuck to the dutch at Lingfield as Atephobia won. Boomtown won easily after being heavily supported .

As to the football, well congratulations to Gretna on a fine 2-0 victory and a nice priced winner for me. So did you follow the advice in the Chelsea match - 0-0  at half time and an increase in Chelsea's price  as the goal inevitably came. This signals, though, that Birmingham have a great chance of staving off relegation. Dutching the correct scores in the Boro game paid off with a 1-1.  Arsenal won 1st half and 2nd half for the half time/full time dutch.

"There are obvious sequences to be beaten such as scoring at home and winning at home and perhaps this could be the day"
Yes Portsmouth's sequence of not scoring at home and, naturally not winning at home came to fruition yesterday  - although the unders were well and truly scuppered with Derby scoring first. Again yesterday those on their toes will have noted a team priced 1.25 to win going down by a goal - why not back that team ( Portsmouth) at enhanced odds in the expectation that the match odds will be proved correct. The asians bet looked like being pulled off with the Derby goal but it wasn't to be.
As an aside,the Besiktas game yesterday was a spectacular example of backing a very short odds on team at enhanced odds.
Besiktas, playing at home were 1.23 to beat Kasimpasa (yes who? - exactly!) Now look at the time line
1' [0 - 1]
O. Ocal

17'

J.B. Askou

20' [0 - 2]
O. Ocal

21' [1 - 2] M.M. Nobre


34' [2 - 2] E. Cisse


38'
M.M. Nobre


69' [3 - 2] M.E. Delgado


81' [4 - 2] M.M. Nobre


85'
I. Uzulmez
Yes, Kasimpasa took a 2 goal lead. I actually backed Besiktas after the first goal at 1.77 odds, although I could have got over evens after they conceded a 2nd - always remember they are 1.23 odds shots for a reason! - final score 4-2! So keep your wits about you and take advantage of in running markets to speculate that these odds on shots, if behind, can salvage something. The trading opportunities can be spectacular

The over 2.5 goal train in the Man Utd game obviously had leaves on the line and I got out for a marginal loss at half time , having warned you regarding the 0-0 last time.
The under 2.5 goals trade in the Newcastle match went superbly -1.92 down to 1.42 in a matter of 15 minutes in the first half made for a very relaxing and successful trade.

Horse racing wise, one meeting today at Wolves probably signals more small field competitive handicaps.

250 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Bold Diva, 4/1 Regal Veil, 6/1 Weetfromthechaff, 8/1 Fulford,  Liani,  Wynberg, 16/1 Andrasta,  Little Finch .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Regal Veil may have more to come but BOLD DIVA was impressive at Southwell last time and can complete a quickfire hat-trick.[PSm]

Why is Wynberg currently 3/1 ( check out the betting forecast price!)
Another handicap winner in Bold Diva looking for a quick fire hatrick. Wynberg for the place ,with a little on the win, for me solely based on the market move ( or perceived market move!)

320 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Qaasi, 5/2 Mujamead,  Slavonic Lake, 14/1 Jenny Soba, 20/1 The Mighty Ogmore, 25/1 Integration,  Tewkesbury, 40/1 Castle Frome .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: QAASI has made the most of a drop into this grade recently and looks the one to beat despite his big weight. Mujamead and Slavonic Lake finished second and third at Kempton on Tuesday and can fight out the minor honours once more

A class 7 classified stakes race - hmmmm - think I'll go to Blackpool and watch the donkeys! A wholly unappetising class of race but an interesting market. 7/4, 15/8 and 10/3 are the 3 market leaders. Qaasi is looking for another win

Because of the poor quality of this race it is difficult to weigh up.  The early market is telling me that Mujamead is as near as damn it, on a par price wise with the favourite and Slavonic lake is the obvious place only candidate with all other horses in double figures. Although in a race of this type, Qaasi may follow up, there are 2 horses near enough price wise to offer some rivalry so a lay of Qaasi today for me again to back off in running ideally over the 3.05 that is currently shown on betfair.
Place only on Slavonic lake is 1.36, I would prefer place only Mujamead at 1.28 - a negligible difference
A further angle in is to back all 3 to level stakes - £ 10 stakes on the front 3 at current prices would produce a slight loss on Mujamead, slight profit/break even on Qaasi and good profit on Slavonic lake - effectively a free bet on Slavonic lake ( I am assuming that the other horses can be written off of course, BUT this is low grade horse racing !)

FOOTY

130 sees Wigan v Everton - now Everton have performed like a top 5 side recently and  at 11/8 are reasonably priced - 11/8 though signals a tough and tight game, and as seen with Birmingham, will Wigan adopt a defensive strategy ( despite being at home!) I predict a tight early affair and if 0-0 at half time, will back Everton at bigger odds to prevail by the odd goal I would suspect.
Will Man City v the Hammers replicate the recent game. I'll take a chance on an under 2.5 goal trade here and back the 0-0, 1-0, 0-1 scorelines
African cup of Nations and Ghana kick off against the mighty Guinea - 1/2 about Ghana is good odds for the home nation with a strong set up .
Atheltico Madrid and Real Madrid face up tonight in the derby and a correct score dutch is in order for me, based on previous head to heads
Here are the odds up to 2-2
0 - 0
13.5
0 - 1
10.5
0 - 2
18
0 - 3
34
1 - 0
12
1 - 1
7.4
1 - 2
11.5
1 - 3
27
2 - 0
18.5
2 - 1
11.5
2 - 2
16.5
For me, backing to level stakes 0-0, 0-1, 1-0, 1-1, 1-2 could pay off Recent matches have been 1-1 and 2-1(to Real)

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