23 jan
publication date: Jan 23, 2008
A big surprise that none of the horses placed which is why good staking is all important to account for these "surprises". Noble Plum I suspect had a shorter price than was natural thanks to jockey /trainer combination.
SUDAN -OUR BOYS GAVE YOU ONE HELL OF A BEATING!
Well done to Zambia - 3-0 over 2.5 goals in the bag - I was born in Zambia so was cheering the boys on - it's probably downhill from now on for a team 100/1 to win the Cup but they done me proud and gave 110% in a game of 2 halves.
Yes, you guessed, heavy ground at Huntington.
110
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 I Have Dreamed, 5/2 Charlie Tokyo, 6/1 Ogee, 20/1 Poliglotti, Prince Broc, Ptibaby, 25/1 Admiral Savannah, Not Well, Space Mission, 40/1 Haoyunma, Huck Finn, 50/1 Ishismart, 100/1 Wordy´s Girl .
A very obvious each way candidate in Ogee who may gain some compensation from the weight I have dreamed has to give away. I would not expect ,today, the first 3 to finish as the first 3 in the race.
850 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Legend Erry, 9/2 Masked, 5/1 Jack Rolfe, 6/1 Pocket Too, 7/1 Pret A Porter, 10/1 Is It Me, 20/1 Dont Call Me Derek, Linden Lime .
Legend Erry back in a race class with similar ability animals after a foray into lower grade. The straight 8 here, a short priced favourite and 3 potential outsiders allow for each way consideration. Pocket Too each way for me, 4th in the betting forecast signifies he could be competitive for a place only.
150 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Kingsgate Castle, 11/4 Jalons Bridewell, 11/2 Jazenio, 6/1 Evenstorm, 10/1 Princess Livius, 14/1 Szaba ,
Kingsgate Castle and Jalons Bridewell can both be backed to level stakes provided both's prices remain over evens.
Worthy of speculative support, although the race type is not ideal. Good returns if 2nd fav wins as happened recently with Arctic Desert!
MUSSELBURGH
Good to soft and the first race is a mares only novice hurdle. I'm Delilah is short enough to lay in my opinion, BUT with the caveat that the lay is followed in running and traded should the horse's jumping cause the price to fluctuate. Already a faller previously, a big field, and all lady horses, their minds will, as ever, be on the January Sales and kittens
Personally, I am very loathe to get involved in the horse racing today given the weather at the jumps venues and the poor cards on the all weather. Bare this in mind - you could quite easily sit this out and wait for clearer bets on better days. Sometimes patience is required
FOOTY
Ideally to be played in running, Udinese v Catania looks a good under 2.5 goal trade if recent form and previous head to heads can be accurate. Both teams have shut out the Italian big boys this term, losing by a solitary goal and/or drawing with them. This points to good defensive units and the hope they will cancel each other out.
Again my close show biz pals Getafe host Mallorca having impressed yet again at odds against against Sevilla. An attacking side, I do like Getafe. Mallorca are buoyed by recent back to back victories against Real Madrid (but lets remember the context - Spanish Cup!). I will back Getafe again and look to trade out after they, hopefully, score the first goal.
Valencia have been distinctly moderate this season as has been seen by their recent performances
Unappetising reading. They are at home in this rematch with Athletico and really I can't see where they'll get a goal (although from a sequencing perspective Valencia are due a goal at home. )
They represent lay material for me to monitor and green up at an appropriate time if the scoreline remains 0-0 or, better still, Athletico score as they are capable of.
MUG PUNTER ACCA ALERT MUG PUNTER ACCA ALERT MUG PUNTER ACCA ALERT
Yes it's that time again for a mug punter accumulator. Teams to include in my mug punter accumulator include Gretna at home (good winners at 11/4 last time), Rangers at home, PSV at home, and Lyon at home -odds combined of 2.62. A safer mug punter acca is to lay Morton in the Gretna game which pays 1.91. Gretna are the only team over my ideal of 1.5 which signifies they will have a battle on their hands early on. I try ,with these mug punter accas, to focus on teams priced below 1.5 as they have a tendency to win often ,especially if home teams.
Treat this as a single bet at 2.62 - it has a decent chance of coming off and allows us to gain involvement from very short odds on shots.
Rangers 1.02 to back - can we enhance these odds?In the total goals market, 5 goals or more can be backed at 1.8 on Betfair, although there is not much money for it.
This may be closer than we think early doors?
Everton v CHelsea this evening in a Carling Cup game they're taking seriously at this stage. Under 2.5 goals for me tonight in what is hoped to be another tight game between the sides with the prospect of Wem berley on the horizon
AFRICAN CUP OF NATIONS
The game that stands out for me today is South Africa versus Angola. I would instinctively have put South Africa up (with a more developed footballing structure) as the most likely winners , but Angola reached the World Cup and performed creditably. THey also have a former Man Uts triallist up front and have deteated the Ivory Coast 2-1. They may be worth a shilling this evening against Bafana Bafana have a banana who do have Excellent Walaza up front ( with Bill and Ted central midfield)
SUDAN -OUR BOYS GAVE YOU ONE HELL OF A BEATING!
Well done to Zambia - 3-0 over 2.5 goals in the bag - I was born in Zambia so was cheering the boys on - it's probably downhill from now on for a team 100/1 to win the Cup but they done me proud and gave 110% in a game of 2 halves.
Yes, you guessed, heavy ground at Huntington.
110
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 I Have Dreamed, 5/2 Charlie Tokyo, 6/1 Ogee, 20/1 Poliglotti, Prince Broc, Ptibaby, 25/1 Admiral Savannah, Not Well, Space Mission, 40/1 Haoyunma, Huck Finn, 50/1 Ishismart, 100/1 Wordy´s Girl .
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| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: I Have Dreamed was mightily impressive at Taunton and looks a different performer at this game but he has to concede weight to a couple who were superior on the Flat. Ogee faced an impossible task on his hurdling debut and should go closer but preference is for CHARLIE TOKYO, a classy individual who will relish the ground.[JN] |
A very obvious each way candidate in Ogee who may gain some compensation from the weight I have dreamed has to give away. I would not expect ,today, the first 3 to finish as the first 3 in the race.
850 KEMPTON
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| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Legend Erry has been making hay at a lower level but he's unlikely to brush these aside with the same contempt and, at the likely odds, there could be some value in taking him on. What MASKED will make of blinkers remains to be seen but he ran a big race on his belated reappearance at Lingfield and that form looks even better now with the first two home successful since.[AWJ] |
Legend Erry back in a race class with similar ability animals after a foray into lower grade. The straight 8 here, a short priced favourite and 3 potential outsiders allow for each way consideration. Pocket Too each way for me, 4th in the betting forecast signifies he could be competitive for a place only.
150 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Kingsgate Castle, 11/4 Jalons Bridewell, 11/2 Jazenio, 6/1 Evenstorm, 10/1 Princess Livius, 14/1 Szaba ,
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| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: An ordinary maiden which may be fought out by JALONS BRIDEWELL and Kingsgate Castle. There is little to choose between the pair on the book.[FC] |
Kingsgate Castle and Jalons Bridewell can both be backed to level stakes provided both's prices remain over evens.
Worthy of speculative support, although the race type is not ideal. Good returns if 2nd fav wins as happened recently with Arctic Desert!
MUSSELBURGH
Good to soft and the first race is a mares only novice hurdle. I'm Delilah is short enough to lay in my opinion, BUT with the caveat that the lay is followed in running and traded should the horse's jumping cause the price to fluctuate. Already a faller previously, a big field, and all lady horses, their minds will, as ever, be on the January Sales and kittens
Personally, I am very loathe to get involved in the horse racing today given the weather at the jumps venues and the poor cards on the all weather. Bare this in mind - you could quite easily sit this out and wait for clearer bets on better days. Sometimes patience is required
FOOTY
Ideally to be played in running, Udinese v Catania looks a good under 2.5 goal trade if recent form and previous head to heads can be accurate. Both teams have shut out the Italian big boys this term, losing by a solitary goal and/or drawing with them. This points to good defensive units and the hope they will cancel each other out.
Again my close show biz pals Getafe host Mallorca having impressed yet again at odds against against Sevilla. An attacking side, I do like Getafe. Mallorca are buoyed by recent back to back victories against Real Madrid (but lets remember the context - Spanish Cup!). I will back Getafe again and look to trade out after they, hopefully, score the first goal.
Valencia have been distinctly moderate this season as has been seen by their recent performances
| Villarreal | 3 | 0 | Valencia | 19/01/2008 |
| Atl.Madrid | 1 | 0 | Valencia | 13/01/2008 |
| Valencia | 0 | 0 | Levante | 06/01/2008 |
| Zaragoza | 2 | 2 | Valencia | 22/12/2007 |
| Valencia | 0 | 3 | Barcelona | 15/12/2007 |
| Osasuna | 0 | 0 | Valencia |
Unappetising reading. They are at home in this rematch with Athletico and really I can't see where they'll get a goal (although from a sequencing perspective Valencia are due a goal at home. )
They represent lay material for me to monitor and green up at an appropriate time if the scoreline remains 0-0 or, better still, Athletico score as they are capable of.
MUG PUNTER ACCA ALERT MUG PUNTER ACCA ALERT MUG PUNTER ACCA ALERT
Yes it's that time again for a mug punter accumulator. Teams to include in my mug punter accumulator include Gretna at home (good winners at 11/4 last time), Rangers at home, PSV at home, and Lyon at home -odds combined of 2.62. A safer mug punter acca is to lay Morton in the Gretna game which pays 1.91. Gretna are the only team over my ideal of 1.5 which signifies they will have a battle on their hands early on. I try ,with these mug punter accas, to focus on teams priced below 1.5 as they have a tendency to win often ,especially if home teams.
Treat this as a single bet at 2.62 - it has a decent chance of coming off and allows us to gain involvement from very short odds on shots.
Rangers 1.02 to back - can we enhance these odds?In the total goals market, 5 goals or more can be backed at 1.8 on Betfair, although there is not much money for it.
This may be closer than we think early doors?
Everton v CHelsea this evening in a Carling Cup game they're taking seriously at this stage. Under 2.5 goals for me tonight in what is hoped to be another tight game between the sides with the prospect of Wem berley on the horizon
AFRICAN CUP OF NATIONS
The game that stands out for me today is South Africa versus Angola. I would instinctively have put South Africa up (with a more developed footballing structure) as the most likely winners , but Angola reached the World Cup and performed creditably. THey also have a former Man Uts triallist up front and have deteated the Ivory Coast 2-1. They may be worth a shilling this evening against Bafana Bafana have a banana who do have Excellent Walaza up front ( with Bill and Ted central midfield)
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