Hi,

Yes, the African Nations kicked off this week with - pretty
much - goals goals goals.

This was thanks to some very dodgy keepers (who
wouldn't get in my old Sunday league side - UNLESS
they bought the half time orange segments and
cigarettes), and some quality names. None more so than
the (might be) excellent Excellent Walaza who plays for
South Africa.  With Bill and Ted in the central midfield
area, poor old Excellent Walaza does get a tad
confused!

I am personally interested in this tournament as I was
born in Zambia , so was delighted to see the boys give
110% in a game of 2 halves where the lads done
tremendous and covered every blade of grass (enough
with the clichés Clive - The Ed) against Sudan. I have, of
course, sold all of my possessions and lumped on the
Zambians to win the tournament at 100/1.

Err.....NOT!

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MORE FOOTBALL

 I have tended to focus more on the football than the
horse racing thanks to the inclement weather and the
inclement race types on the all weather and the surviving
jumps meetings.

There have been many opportunities to flex your trading
muscles in the football- a very recent example was
Sporting Lisbon on Wednesday night - facing Beira Mar
(who?) at home , Sporting were quoted at 1.3 to win.

Cue the threat of a shock with 0-0 at half time

Cue odds increase to nearly evens

Cue goals! 3-0 final score.

Yet another opportunity to exploit the in running market
as long as you remember the home team are 1.3 for a
reason!

Do you remember my Liverpool v Luton Miss Marple
type deductions? Well, again Rangers on Wednesday
were quoted at 1/66. What does this tell us? There will
be goals. How can we enhance the odds ? Well, try the
total goals market where 5 goals or more was quoted at
1.8.

Final score 6-0 - job done and nearly evens about a 1/66
chance. (There's another 1/66 chance playing on
Saturday in Liverpool - so take a look at the total goals
market and see if you can enhance the odds - make
sure Benitez plays a strong side - you can't trust him!)
By backing at these bigger odds we can have an
involvement in the game and the chance of a good
return.

NOTE - it doesn't always go this way - Ghana yesterday
at 1/12 signalled a goal fest, yet it remained 1-0! There is
no such thing as a sure thing, hence the importance of
money management and not putting all your eggs in one
basket.

BLOG TASTIC

I think I have had a great January on the blog which is
available at http://www.whatreallywinsmoney.com/blog.

There has been some consistency this month and some
great football trades and straight bets. I have tried to
include some "real life" lessons like the ones shown
above in the hope you can spot these yourself. I do hope
that February can continue in this profitable vein  -
remember it's FREE .

Sequencing has a been a method I have used to some
success with the football on the blog- a great example
being Bruges away to Mons last Friday. A look at Bruges
last 3 away games and they won all 3 matches 2-1.
Here's what I said:

"From a sequencing perspective, surely they won't
record another 2-1 victory will they? 4/7 indicates this is
going to be a tight affair so I will personally chance the 1-
0 to Bruges, the 1-1 and the 2-0 to Bruges and avoid the
2-1 in the hope it isn't replicated a 4th time away from
home."

Bruges won 1-0.Sequencing is not a mechanical system
rather a method of using the probability that something
won't occur this time round.  These sequences are
everywhere and I have touched upon them before - if
you want to be less technical, call them "patterns"
perhaps.

 I have profited consistently mostly from level stakes
dutching with the horse racing. This for me seems the
only way with the all weather being so difficult. I hope it
will continue. I have some twin progressive cycle
software which I am keen to test and which offers a
different method of exploiting the perceived 2 horse
races that I have been mostly concentrating on.
Within the website, I have asked Chris Beek from
Kachina Racing to write some articles and include some
of his gallop reports free to site users. I think you'll find
them very informative and I must thank Chris for doing
that.

I have bought Fasttrackplans and want to transfer my
results onto fastrack plans then onto the website for you
to personally scrutinise the results of various systems. I
hope to get this done in increments over the coming
weeks. I am trying to include system ultra from S*******n
Br****s -this may have potential long term and with the
correct staking (currently outperforming level stakes with
the safebetplan).

I think that winners will continue to come because this is
a favourite based system but like a lot of systems of his
the ideal is to follow the live market. Worth me
monitoring though because if it does profit regularly then
a bet placement service may be a good investment (and
it's profiting at present).

 Something that actually works from he who shall not be
named - will wonders never cease?

As to trying to keep track of Betfair live markets for
testing lay systems, I am capturing by video live betfair
prices each day to enable me to personally trial various
lay systems and also to see if a couple of bad backing
systems can be made into lay systems because they  1)
focus on very short prices and a lot of odds on shots and
2) their selections lose quite often.

If I can gauge the lay price on Betfair I can determine
whether these 2 dodgy backing systems will prove
profitable as lay systems given the low liabilities.

SHOUT OUT

Having procured System Ultra and Project Beta X from
the Brookes (after getting clearing from MI5 - especially
as Project Beta X contains Operation X)  I am keen for
more of his ebooks to just glance over (again I'll share
costs with you!)

In fact this counts for any other systems that are out
there that you have procured and may be willing to share
the cost with.

I am doing one with a reader for a system which made
(wait for it ) 550 points profit in 8 months (yeh and I have
just spent the last fortnight with Kelly Brook in my Riviera
mansion) . For a small outlay you get to see the system
and so do I and, more importantly, if these wild (and
frankly unbelievable) claims are true, we all benefit!

WARNING

Just a quick warning about the myriad services offering
to take your cash off you and bet it on your behalf, with
the promise of a regular monthly income. Please leave
these people alone. Remembering this is an unregulated
industry, any cash transactions are extremely dangerous
(and untraceable!) and these people will probably tell
you that they lost your initial stake (if they used it to bet
in the first place) and could you please forward more.

One recent example was recounted to me by a reader

"Yesterday however I received a mailshot from a
company called Preferential Betting Services of
Cheltenham - they were very vague but basically says if
you pay them £200 stake they will use this to produce
winnings of average of £320 per month for you by
betting on various sports."

Question - why not do it themselves? Get out a bank
loan if you can double your money every month - you
certainly blow any fund manager out of the water! NOTE
- the clever services will deliver  knowing that if you see
them  doing as they promised you will increase stakes
dramatically , and hey presto, these guys will split
sharpish !

I have no experience of Preferential Betting Services  of
Cheltenham and frankly, neither should you.  I still have
fresh in my mind the horror story recounted regarding
Millenium Club of Birmingham who "lost" one reader's
£2000 stake money and had the cheek to ask him to
send on more so they could " chase losses" and win it all
back again.

So will it be goals at Anfield this weekend?  I hope so
because that's the market I'll be heading to. Watch out,
too, for some likely Cheltenham festival contenders this
weekend (weather permitting) with the festival drawing
nearer and nearer.

I will, too, try to get a peak at the 6 nations markets this
weekend in preparation for the tournament. And I'll try to
get some sleep as well!

Have a great weekend,

Clive