27/1
publication date: Jan 27, 2008
Franchoek won but I broke even - hey, it's about preserving the bank as well as profitting - I effectively had a free bet on Tatenen. Inglis Drever asserted well and Blazing Bailey followed for a nice evens return whoever won of these 2 .khyber Kim reminds us there is no such thing as a sure thing and stakes we use should be in accordance with a predetermined staking plan and not based on a perceived notion that because its 2/5 it'll win doing hand stands. Chomba Womba won with Theatre Girl following up.
Larkwing won but the price did rise especially as he clipped the last and was strongly pressured. It was not an outright lay but a lay to follow in running given the 27 runners.
THe MUG PUNTER ACCA came in ,thanks largely to PSV scoring a winner in the 90th minute - and this was the team priced at 1.17! That's why bookies love accas - you're seconds away from it all going tits up.
The Boro dutch came off in a very unconvincing display against Jane Mansfield. King Kev's army were, indeed, put in their place but my winning margin bets were scuppered by a Nicky Butt(head) own goal.
The final bet I opted for was over 5.5 goals and Liverpool got there in a round about way. The any unquoted in the half time score came in well at 2.02.
Yes, Wigan was 2-1 final score but I must reiterate that you would have profitted with an under 2.5 goal trade. 1.15 at half time from 1.8 initially - common sense tells you to trade out because you cannot predict the future.
Overs came in as the Zambians got spanked alas. Half time/full time came in in the Egypt match as did over 2.5 goals. The Hibs match was postponed but the multiple still paid out well with Southampton and PSV leaving it late - great results!
Southampton left it all too late for the overs - NOTE - it's best to do these over 2.5 goal bets in an in running match -I presumed Southampton would be being the FA Cup and Bury having delivered last time, so bear that in mind. We have no power if just betting rather than having he ability to react via the in running market
KELSO HEAVY GROUND
Again, caution necessary here and it starts with a conditional jockey's handicap hurdle - I'll get me coat!
KEMPTON
125
A 5 furlong claimer and Ten Down is expected to get the hattrick. Possibilities here for a free bet on a wish for you ( currently 10/3) with Ten down a shade of odds on - level stakes will produce a marginal loss on the fav, and probability wise, we'll be covering 2 in the 4 horse field.
LEOPARDSTOWN
Yielding to Soft
The big jumps boys have crossed over he pond but the ground is offputting.
The first race is a 30 runner maiden hurdle which will tell you all you need to know.
120
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Pomme Tiepy, 7/2 Notre Pere, 4/1 Callherwhatulike, 8/1 Be My Leader, Call Bewleys, 10/1 Line Ball, 12/1 Kilcrea Castle, 20/1 Druids Cross, Torduff King, 50/1 Shesadoll, 100/1 Misty´s Express.
I put up Pomme Tiepy last time after the horse scored readily but on this occasion level stakes bets on Notre Pere and Callherwhatyoulike and Be my leader are possible with the shortest price currently 7/2. Heavy ground and 3 miles means I am reluctant to back a 5/4 shot facing a more difficult race today.
At 2.18 I suppose Pomme Tiepy is worthy of laying as an alternative, again the ideal being, like Larkwing, to react in running and "buy" back the bet at higher odds in running. Software such as fairbot allows this, as does betangel basic. You could put in a back bet at 4 (or whatever price you want) and submit that in running and hope it gets matched, mindful that the stakes must ensure a green screen. If successful we will have a green screen profit on all horses.
Personally I prefer manual control in running, mindful of the horse that hit 28 recently in running and still won!
255
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Sizing Europe, 11/4 Hardy Eustace, 3/1 Aitmatov, 7/2 Al Eile, 10/1 Ebaziyan, 12/1 Lounaos .
Intriguing contest Sizing Europe, Hardy, Aitmatov and Al Eile are all priced either 4 or 5 making this, as pointed out, a real "puzzle".
Again we can employ a level stakes dutch as the shortest price is 4 and break even on Sizing Europe and Al Eile and win the equivalent of an evens bet on Hardy and Aitmatov.
Alternatively, try to eliminate one of these 4 horses -this will allow a level stakes dutch on the 3 remaining horses and a profit equivalent to an evens bet on 2 and 2/1 on HArdy Eustace. BUT who to eliminate? Prices of 4,4,5,5,1 indicate they are very closely matched and it will be luck rather than judgement that we will have chosen the right horse to eliminate.
This is where playing the probability game comes in. If you're happy to break even on Sizing Europe and Al Eile, then back all 4 to level stakes ( dependent of course on the shortest odds being 4 on Betfair which they currently are. )
Alternatively select one horse to leave out - personally I would take the perceived favourite out as it is obviously competitive, and back the other 3 to level stakes and hope for the best.
Sizing Europe is the current fav.
This of course assumes that we can sasfely dismiss Ebizyan and Laonous which of course wecan't given conditions and the grade of race. But by backing 4 (or 3) we are covering those "most likely"
SOUTHWELL - JUMPS NOT ALL WEATHER
Good ground
145 - Gold medallist is fancied and is currently 2 on Betfair, Roll along cannot be dismissed and is 4.35 - again level stakes on these 2 will pay off if Roll along wins.
NOTE - this is a 3 mile novice chase so not an ideal betting medium and the market leaders are not guaranteed to win in this race type but it's worth a punt given the weakness in price of the remaining horses.
FOOTY
Generally good day yesterday despite Havant and Waterlooville's superb efforts.
Man Utd v Spurs is a highlight today - United at home could shade the advantage. Ma n Utd are priced the same as Chelsea were against Wigan yesterday but I think they face a stiffer task than the Ruskies did against Wigan today.
The last 4 encounters at Old Trafford have all been under 2.5 goal affairs, with United always landing the first blow. Of course fresh in the mind is the 4-0 drubbing at White Hart lane.
I think if a goal is scored today, Man Utd will be the first to score.
Of the top 4 that Spurs have played recently, they have lost to Chelsea 2-0 and lost to the Arse 2-1. We can assume then there is a gulf in class and the Top 4 have an edge in any encounter with the Spuds.
All signs point to an under 2.5 goal TRADE here for the first 20 minutes of the game ( yesterday after 20 mins in the Chelsea game, the price went from 1.87 down to 1.3 allowing for a nice trade) , and a one or goal victory for the home side.
After seeing Nicky Butt(ocks) own goal scupper my winning margin bet in the Arsenal game, I am tempted again with the dutch of 1 and 2 goals winning margin at prices of 2.82 and 3.95.
The above asian handicap bet is of interest here, slightly increasing the 1/2 about United to win in the Match odds market.
2.46 about a United Clean sheet looks reasonable enough given Spurs recent history at Old Trafford - 2 1-0's and a 0-0 punctuated by a 1-1 -stats are in our favour.
Under 2.5 goals trading looks the call in the Sheffield, Man City game and a probable City win by 1-0 is priced at 7.2, AND is tradeable if City take the lead as that 7.2 will drop as the game progresses.
African nations are hard to predict today so I'll leave alone.
MUG PUNTER ACCA
Came in with a boom yesterday - Hibs match postponed meant that the 4.58 about the acca was slightly shortened. Nice odds and a nice return.
Celtic have won by the odd goal in 4 against Falkirk in their last 2 home and away and Milan beat Geno comfortably by 3 at their gaff. Hope for draw or Man Utd win at Old Trafford .Concern that Falkirk might look to avert another drubbing by an ultra dsefensive attitude.
Larkwing won but the price did rise especially as he clipped the last and was strongly pressured. It was not an outright lay but a lay to follow in running given the 27 runners.
THe MUG PUNTER ACCA came in ,thanks largely to PSV scoring a winner in the 90th minute - and this was the team priced at 1.17! That's why bookies love accas - you're seconds away from it all going tits up.
The Boro dutch came off in a very unconvincing display against Jane Mansfield. King Kev's army were, indeed, put in their place but my winning margin bets were scuppered by a Nicky Butt(head) own goal.
The final bet I opted for was over 5.5 goals and Liverpool got there in a round about way. The any unquoted in the half time score came in well at 2.02.
Yes, Wigan was 2-1 final score but I must reiterate that you would have profitted with an under 2.5 goal trade. 1.15 at half time from 1.8 initially - common sense tells you to trade out because you cannot predict the future.
Overs came in as the Zambians got spanked alas. Half time/full time came in in the Egypt match as did over 2.5 goals. The Hibs match was postponed but the multiple still paid out well with Southampton and PSV leaving it late - great results!
Southampton left it all too late for the overs - NOTE - it's best to do these over 2.5 goal bets in an in running match -I presumed Southampton would be being the FA Cup and Bury having delivered last time, so bear that in mind. We have no power if just betting rather than having he ability to react via the in running market
KELSO HEAVY GROUND
Again, caution necessary here and it starts with a conditional jockey's handicap hurdle - I'll get me coat!
KEMPTON
125
A 5 furlong claimer and Ten Down is expected to get the hattrick. Possibilities here for a free bet on a wish for you ( currently 10/3) with Ten down a shade of odds on - level stakes will produce a marginal loss on the fav, and probability wise, we'll be covering 2 in the 4 horse field.
LEOPARDSTOWN
Yielding to Soft
The big jumps boys have crossed over he pond but the ground is offputting.
The first race is a 30 runner maiden hurdle which will tell you all you need to know.
120
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Pomme Tiepy, 7/2 Notre Pere, 4/1 Callherwhatulike, 8/1 Be My Leader, Call Bewleys, 10/1 Line Ball, 12/1 Kilcrea Castle, 20/1 Druids Cross, Torduff King, 50/1 Shesadoll, 100/1 Misty´s Express.
I put up Pomme Tiepy last time after the horse scored readily but on this occasion level stakes bets on Notre Pere and Callherwhatyoulike and Be my leader are possible with the shortest price currently 7/2. Heavy ground and 3 miles means I am reluctant to back a 5/4 shot facing a more difficult race today.
At 2.18 I suppose Pomme Tiepy is worthy of laying as an alternative, again the ideal being, like Larkwing, to react in running and "buy" back the bet at higher odds in running. Software such as fairbot allows this, as does betangel basic. You could put in a back bet at 4 (or whatever price you want) and submit that in running and hope it gets matched, mindful that the stakes must ensure a green screen. If successful we will have a green screen profit on all horses.
Personally I prefer manual control in running, mindful of the horse that hit 28 recently in running and still won!
255
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| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A small field but a bit of a puzzle nonetheless, and it may pay to keep the faith with the evergreen HARDY EUSTACE in his bid to reverse recent form with Al Eile, and to keep at bay Sizing Europe who appears on the verge of entering hurdling's premier league. |
Intriguing contest Sizing Europe, Hardy, Aitmatov and Al Eile are all priced either 4 or 5 making this, as pointed out, a real "puzzle".
Again we can employ a level stakes dutch as the shortest price is 4 and break even on Sizing Europe and Al Eile and win the equivalent of an evens bet on Hardy and Aitmatov.
Alternatively, try to eliminate one of these 4 horses -this will allow a level stakes dutch on the 3 remaining horses and a profit equivalent to an evens bet on 2 and 2/1 on HArdy Eustace. BUT who to eliminate? Prices of 4,4,5,5,1 indicate they are very closely matched and it will be luck rather than judgement that we will have chosen the right horse to eliminate.
This is where playing the probability game comes in. If you're happy to break even on Sizing Europe and Al Eile, then back all 4 to level stakes ( dependent of course on the shortest odds being 4 on Betfair which they currently are. )
Alternatively select one horse to leave out - personally I would take the perceived favourite out as it is obviously competitive, and back the other 3 to level stakes and hope for the best.
Sizing Europe is the current fav.
This of course assumes that we can sasfely dismiss Ebizyan and Laonous which of course wecan't given conditions and the grade of race. But by backing 4 (or 3) we are covering those "most likely"
SOUTHWELL - JUMPS NOT ALL WEATHER
Good ground
145 - Gold medallist is fancied and is currently 2 on Betfair, Roll along cannot be dismissed and is 4.35 - again level stakes on these 2 will pay off if Roll along wins.
NOTE - this is a 3 mile novice chase so not an ideal betting medium and the market leaders are not guaranteed to win in this race type but it's worth a punt given the weakness in price of the remaining horses.
FOOTY
Generally good day yesterday despite Havant and Waterlooville's superb efforts.
Man Utd v Spurs is a highlight today - United at home could shade the advantage. Ma n Utd are priced the same as Chelsea were against Wigan yesterday but I think they face a stiffer task than the Ruskies did against Wigan today.
The last 4 encounters at Old Trafford have all been under 2.5 goal affairs, with United always landing the first blow. Of course fresh in the mind is the 4-0 drubbing at White Hart lane.
I think if a goal is scored today, Man Utd will be the first to score.
Of the top 4 that Spurs have played recently, they have lost to Chelsea 2-0 and lost to the Arse 2-1. We can assume then there is a gulf in class and the Top 4 have an edge in any encounter with the Spuds.
All signs point to an under 2.5 goal TRADE here for the first 20 minutes of the game ( yesterday after 20 mins in the Chelsea game, the price went from 1.87 down to 1.3 allowing for a nice trade) , and a one or goal victory for the home side.
After seeing Nicky Butt(ocks) own goal scupper my winning margin bet in the Arsenal game, I am tempted again with the dutch of 1 and 2 goals winning margin at prices of 2.82 and 3.95.
 |
Man Utd -0.5&-1.0
If Man Utd win by 2 or more
If Man Utd win by 1
If Man Utd do not win
|
  |
£59.00
£29.50
-£100.00
|
||
The above asian handicap bet is of interest here, slightly increasing the 1/2 about United to win in the Match odds market.
2.46 about a United Clean sheet looks reasonable enough given Spurs recent history at Old Trafford - 2 1-0's and a 0-0 punctuated by a 1-1 -stats are in our favour.
Under 2.5 goals trading looks the call in the Sheffield, Man City game and a probable City win by 1-0 is priced at 7.2, AND is tradeable if City take the lead as that 7.2 will drop as the game progresses.
African nations are hard to predict today so I'll leave alone.
MUG PUNTER ACCA
Came in with a boom yesterday - Hibs match postponed meant that the 4.58 about the acca was slightly shortened. Nice odds and a nice return.
| 1 | AC Milan v Genoa (Backing AC Milan @ 1.27) |
| 2 | Man Utd v Tottenham (Laying Tottenham @ 9.19) |
| 3 | Falkirk v Celtic (Backing Celtic @ 1.45) |
| Trebles | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Selections | Odds* | Stake | Potential win | |
 |
1,2 and 3 | 2.07 | £10.00 | £10.70 |
Celtic have won by the odd goal in 4 against Falkirk in their last 2 home and away and Milan beat Geno comfortably by 3 at their gaff. Hope for draw or Man Utd win at Old Trafford .Concern that Falkirk might look to avert another drubbing by an ultra dsefensive attitude.
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