28/1
publication date: Jan 28, 2008
Ten down won . Pomme Tiepy won and at no time did the odds rise over 2.4 so I backed with the stake I laid when the odds hit and broke 2 on Pomme tiepy reducing losses. In running monitoring can help both ways (ensure profit and cut losses if you're pre race presumption doesn't materialise - and 3 miles is ample time to evaluate). There was just no price fluctuation at all.
Sizing Europe did not go off fav - there were 2 at 5/2 joint so fav couldn't be laid. Early prices at time of writing altered - break even on Sizing Europe in the end if all 4 were dutched to level stakes.
Gold medallist dutch was off with Roll along a non runner.
Under 2.5 goals trade came good in the Man Utd game in the first 20 minutes with a .40 price drop to 1.75 allowing a marginal green screen profit. The asian handicap came off thanks to a bad goalkeeping error. No clean sheet for Utd alas
Balloonacy at Sheffield Utd v City as the Blades scored first thanks to some balloons? ( I'm clutching at straws here looking for an excuse!) With the blades scoring first the over 2.5 goals bet became far more likely. Bye bye unders with 2-0 the Blades - totally unexpected but an opportunity to back the favs at over 9 in the hope of a recovery which came fleetingly as the price for Man City dropped to 5.8 as they scored. A nice 4 point trade there .
The mug punter accumulator came good and ,as I thought, Falkirk were far tighter this time and there was no way 4-0 or 4-1 would be replicated ( another case of sequencing perhaps?) With 0-0 looking likely Celtic's win odds increased to 1.8 and over 2.5 goals was 3.5. Both dropped dramatically with the Celtic goal just before the half time whistle. This was a pity as I wanted to get involved after half time. Although the game finished 1-0 market expectation was that over 2.5 goals would be met and the market reacted accordingly - again there's no need just because you may have backed overs for you to stay in the bet - with in running betting it's best to get that green screen and preserve betting bank by getting stakes back through trading.
A muddling day yesterday.
Incidentally, I took some interesting price graphs for the above which I will transfer onto the website under articles just to show you how the price fluctuates in reaction to incidents in football - a characteristic not shared with pre race trading on horse racing which is weight of money influenced rather than influenced in reaction to something.
KEMPTON - ALL WEATHER
150
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Waterside, 5/1 Without Excuse, 6/1 Alfie Tupper, 8/1 Hucking Heat, 12/1 Boundless Prospect, Fregate Island, 20/1 Smokey The Bear .
Waterside Didn´t have to be at his best to win claimer here last time but even that effort gives him excellent claims; still to prove he stays this far but has been ridden with more restraint of late and looks the one to beat.
The "one to beat" in this claimer - the price gap is most certainly there. Near market rival Alfie Tupper is a non runner. Concern over the trip for the favourite.
Waterside is currently 1.71 on Betfair and near market rival Without excuse is 5.7.
Yet again a straight (for example) £10 level stakes bet on both will produce a £2.90 loss on Waterside and a £35 profit on Without excuse. The presumption is that these 2 should dominate ( but note class of race - not the best) .
This is a nice scenario given Alfie Tupper's absence. By reducing Without excuses stakes we could turn the £2.90 loss into a break even on Waterside.
At 1.71 as a standalone bet, Waterside may be worth a singular interest, although my personal preference is for the above scenario.
220 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Little Richard, 100/30 George Henson, 9/2 Medieval Maiden, 5/1 Mixing, 7/1 Amwell Brave, 8/1 Wee Charlie Castle, 25/1 King Of Diamonds, 33/1 Bandits Pistol, Raydan .
Prices for the first 5 on BEtfair are 4.7 , 5.4 , 6, 6, 6.4 as I write. £10 level stakes on all leaves a marginal loss on Little Richard and profits of £3.80, £9.50, £9.50, £9.50, and £13.30 leave us covering the first 5 with Amwell Brave priced as the only fly in the ointment at 11.5. The other 2 are 38 and can, we presume, be left alone.
4/1 the field though, indicates none can be discounted but by backing 5 of the 9, we have over half the field on our side.
The 250 sees another possible dutch amongst the first 2 but this is a 6 furlong small field handicap.
LUDLOW - GOOD GROUND
200
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 French Saulaie, 7/2 Chaninbar, Consigliere, 20/1 Climate Change, Kervriou, 25/1 Quillan Hill, Thenford Flyer, 33/1 Dante´s Diamond, 66/1 Arte Et Marte, Grey Shark, The Thunderer, 100/1 Beesneez, Orrezzo .
French Saulaie is the one to beat here in a 3 runner race
" French Saulaie Consistency not his strong point but basically progressive over hurdles, probably career-best effort when second off 135 at Newbury last month; in process of putting subsequent poor run, on ground that might have been too firm, behind him when unseating four out in decent beginners event at Chepstow on chasing debut (winner has scored again) and likely to be hard to beat with a clear round."
Comes with those trigger words "likely to be hard to beat"
4/5 offers reasonable odds here. There is an obvious each way route via Consignere and Chaninbar and you could, if seeking larger returns and willing to take the loss, back both to level stakes against the current 1.78 favourite.
Personally, I will back French Saulaie with the caveat that I will follow progress in the in running market.
I must say, though ,that I like the back of French with £10 (example) stakes, with £8 on Consigniere and £6 on Chaninbar. At current prices of 1.78, 5.2 , 6.8 this leaves a loss of £6.20 on the favourite but possible returns of £17 on the other 2. (again we are making the big assumption that all other horses can be discounted)
250 - small mention - possible 3 horse race but 2 mile 5 novices is a bit offputting
WOLVERHAMPTON
440
BETTING FORECAST: Evs West Lorne, 5/1 Moscow Oznick, 7/1 Silver Waters, 8/1 Little Lovely, 10/1 Doric Dream, 14/1 Awesome Light, Mr Macattack, 25/1 Rightcar Hull, Tripod Molly ,
4 debutants here and an odds on debutant in West Lorne ( reputation of trainer/jockey combination?) A quite clear price gapper, you should know by now about backing debutants based on reputation and no proven ability over the surface. Currently evens, for those who will follow the money !
Another taxing Wolverhampton card.
FOOTY
Man City let me down yesterday and really I should have researched their away form, and merely assumed their premiership credentials would ensure victory - well done to the Blades ,really gritty as shown by Morgan and Geary working their socks off - clearly fan's favourites!.
2 5' o clock starts in the African nations. With Ghana failing to really deliver as their 1/12 odds suggested, we can expect a torrid time for them again today at a shade of odds on against Morocco. I will chance an under 2.5 goal trade here given their inability to score properly last time out. Again I think 20 minutes is the key time to allow the market price to drop to a tradeable level.
I guess that Namibia weren't the whipping boys we all expected ,and they face Guinea today who are 1/5 on to beat them. Morocco beat Namibia 5-1 and Guinea beat Morocco 3-2 so I'll go with over 2.5 goals here
Nantes v Le Havre - interesting to see Ladbrokes price the draw up at 15/8 - signal of a close game? May be worth an under 2.5 goal punt here - BUT it's not in running so we cannot be reactive and trade.
Not strong bets today but rather speculative ones. Worth chancing though if LAdbrokes is correct in his odds compiling.
Sizing Europe did not go off fav - there were 2 at 5/2 joint so fav couldn't be laid. Early prices at time of writing altered - break even on Sizing Europe in the end if all 4 were dutched to level stakes.
Gold medallist dutch was off with Roll along a non runner.
Under 2.5 goals trade came good in the Man Utd game in the first 20 minutes with a .40 price drop to 1.75 allowing a marginal green screen profit. The asian handicap came off thanks to a bad goalkeeping error. No clean sheet for Utd alas
Balloonacy at Sheffield Utd v City as the Blades scored first thanks to some balloons? ( I'm clutching at straws here looking for an excuse!) With the blades scoring first the over 2.5 goals bet became far more likely. Bye bye unders with 2-0 the Blades - totally unexpected but an opportunity to back the favs at over 9 in the hope of a recovery which came fleetingly as the price for Man City dropped to 5.8 as they scored. A nice 4 point trade there .
The mug punter accumulator came good and ,as I thought, Falkirk were far tighter this time and there was no way 4-0 or 4-1 would be replicated ( another case of sequencing perhaps?) With 0-0 looking likely Celtic's win odds increased to 1.8 and over 2.5 goals was 3.5. Both dropped dramatically with the Celtic goal just before the half time whistle. This was a pity as I wanted to get involved after half time. Although the game finished 1-0 market expectation was that over 2.5 goals would be met and the market reacted accordingly - again there's no need just because you may have backed overs for you to stay in the bet - with in running betting it's best to get that green screen and preserve betting bank by getting stakes back through trading.
A muddling day yesterday.
Incidentally, I took some interesting price graphs for the above which I will transfer onto the website under articles just to show you how the price fluctuates in reaction to incidents in football - a characteristic not shared with pre race trading on horse racing which is weight of money influenced rather than influenced in reaction to something.
KEMPTON - ALL WEATHER
150
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Waterside, 5/1 Without Excuse, 6/1 Alfie Tupper, 8/1 Hucking Heat, 12/1 Boundless Prospect, Fregate Island, 20/1 Smokey The Bear .
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| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: WATERSIDE has to prove his stamina at this trip but he has won over an extended mile and he has considerably more ability than his rivals, so he looks the one to beat. Without Excuse could be the one to capitalise if the selection underperform |
Waterside Didn´t have to be at his best to win claimer here last time but even that effort gives him excellent claims; still to prove he stays this far but has been ridden with more restraint of late and looks the one to beat.
The "one to beat" in this claimer - the price gap is most certainly there. Near market rival Alfie Tupper is a non runner. Concern over the trip for the favourite.
Waterside is currently 1.71 on Betfair and near market rival Without excuse is 5.7.
Yet again a straight (for example) £10 level stakes bet on both will produce a £2.90 loss on Waterside and a £35 profit on Without excuse. The presumption is that these 2 should dominate ( but note class of race - not the best) .
This is a nice scenario given Alfie Tupper's absence. By reducing Without excuses stakes we could turn the £2.90 loss into a break even on Waterside.
At 1.71 as a standalone bet, Waterside may be worth a singular interest, although my personal preference is for the above scenario.
220 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Little Richard, 100/30 George Henson, 9/2 Medieval Maiden, 5/1 Mixing, 7/1 Amwell Brave, 8/1 Wee Charlie Castle, 25/1 King Of Diamonds, 33/1 Bandits Pistol, Raydan .
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| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: GEORGE HENSON looks to have been given a real chance by the handicapper here and with the prospect of more improvement to come, he is worth siding with. Whilst his Southwell win was only modest form, there is no reason to doubt the second and third gave their running and a mark of 50 looks generous. The reliable Little Richard and Mixing look best of the rest |
Prices for the first 5 on BEtfair are 4.7 , 5.4 , 6, 6, 6.4 as I write. £10 level stakes on all leaves a marginal loss on Little Richard and profits of £3.80, £9.50, £9.50, £9.50, and £13.30 leave us covering the first 5 with Amwell Brave priced as the only fly in the ointment at 11.5. The other 2 are 38 and can, we presume, be left alone.
4/1 the field though, indicates none can be discounted but by backing 5 of the 9, we have over half the field on our side.
The 250 sees another possible dutch amongst the first 2 but this is a 6 furlong small field handicap.
LUDLOW - GOOD GROUND
200
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 French Saulaie, 7/2 Chaninbar, Consigliere, 20/1 Climate Change, Kervriou, 25/1 Quillan Hill, Thenford Flyer, 33/1 Dante´s Diamond, 66/1 Arte Et Marte, Grey Shark, The Thunderer, 100/1 Beesneez, Orrezzo .
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| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The outcome depends to a large extent on whether Arkle Chase entry FRENCH SAULAIE puts in a clear round. The clear pick on hurdling form, he looked the one to beat at the time of his exit in a stronger race at Chepstow on his chasing debut. Consigliere may prove a bigger threat than Chaninbar.[FC] |
French Saulaie is the one to beat here in a 3 runner race
" French Saulaie Consistency not his strong point but basically progressive over hurdles, probably career-best effort when second off 135 at Newbury last month; in process of putting subsequent poor run, on ground that might have been too firm, behind him when unseating four out in decent beginners event at Chepstow on chasing debut (winner has scored again) and likely to be hard to beat with a clear round."
Comes with those trigger words "likely to be hard to beat"
4/5 offers reasonable odds here. There is an obvious each way route via Consignere and Chaninbar and you could, if seeking larger returns and willing to take the loss, back both to level stakes against the current 1.78 favourite.
Personally, I will back French Saulaie with the caveat that I will follow progress in the in running market.
I must say, though ,that I like the back of French with £10 (example) stakes, with £8 on Consigniere and £6 on Chaninbar. At current prices of 1.78, 5.2 , 6.8 this leaves a loss of £6.20 on the favourite but possible returns of £17 on the other 2. (again we are making the big assumption that all other horses can be discounted)
250 - small mention - possible 3 horse race but 2 mile 5 novices is a bit offputting
WOLVERHAMPTON
440
BETTING FORECAST: Evs West Lorne, 5/1 Moscow Oznick, 7/1 Silver Waters, 8/1 Little Lovely, 10/1 Doric Dream, 14/1 Awesome Light, Mr Macattack, 25/1 Rightcar Hull, Tripod Molly ,
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| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Mark Johnston has a fine record with 3yo newcomers on this track (won this race last year win debutant Regal Parade) and the well-bred WEST LORNE will not have to be anything special to make a winning debut today |
4 debutants here and an odds on debutant in West Lorne ( reputation of trainer/jockey combination?) A quite clear price gapper, you should know by now about backing debutants based on reputation and no proven ability over the surface. Currently evens, for those who will follow the money !
Another taxing Wolverhampton card.
FOOTY
Man City let me down yesterday and really I should have researched their away form, and merely assumed their premiership credentials would ensure victory - well done to the Blades ,really gritty as shown by Morgan and Geary working their socks off - clearly fan's favourites!.
2 5' o clock starts in the African nations. With Ghana failing to really deliver as their 1/12 odds suggested, we can expect a torrid time for them again today at a shade of odds on against Morocco. I will chance an under 2.5 goal trade here given their inability to score properly last time out. Again I think 20 minutes is the key time to allow the market price to drop to a tradeable level.
I guess that Namibia weren't the whipping boys we all expected ,and they face Guinea today who are 1/5 on to beat them. Morocco beat Namibia 5-1 and Guinea beat Morocco 3-2 so I'll go with over 2.5 goals here
Nantes v Le Havre - interesting to see Ladbrokes price the draw up at 15/8 - signal of a close game? May be worth an under 2.5 goal punt here - BUT it's not in running so we cannot be reactive and trade.
Not strong bets today but rather speculative ones. Worth chancing though if LAdbrokes is correct in his odds compiling.
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