3 FEB
publication date: Feb 3, 2008
I must thank my close showbiz pal Carlos Tevez for getting my lay of Spurs in - I basically wrote off this one and there was no real opportunity to trade out for a red screen because the losses throughout were negligible when compared with my original liability on the Spuds. He also helped with my mug punter acca which I was unable to post due to ultra slow braodband
It went something like this
Lay Portsmouth, Southampton, Spurs, Sunderland, FCV Dender and Back East Fife and Paris St Germain.
As you know Tevez saved my bacon, East Fife at 1.2 to back left it incredibly late to win 1-0, FCV Dender were facing Anderlecht for the 2nd time in a week and I backed Anderlecht last time, but thought there might be a reaction this time. I did not trust Liverpool to win so laid Sunderland. Portsmouth and Southampton both drew allowing these bets to come in ( rather than backing Palace and Chelsea), Paris St Germain were 1.24 away from home so I took the hint. They gave me a scare with a 1-1 before drawing away to win 3-1. This acca paid 3.58 and I could have increased it with my lay of Man City but the broadband at that stage was too low.
I hope you can see that a liberal sprinkling of lays combined with ultra shorties can really help boost the odds ( I try to pick under 1.3 and preferably home teams and cup games) and also account for any surprise results amongst the most fancied ( eg I would have lost had I chosen Man Utd and Chelsea as back bets - I laid the opposition because these 2 teams were away from home)
Well sequences, in all their forms, end eventually don't they? Man City's unbeaten record at home was ended by Arsenal and the key, I feel, to profitting from sequencing betting is to wait for the right opportunity where that sequence has a chance of ending. Well, with City's under par recent performances and Arsenal's current winning mentality, yesterday was an ideal time, and with (relaitvely speaking) biggish odds on Arsenal, traders had no worries with Arsenal going 2-0 up. Highly recommended that you take advantage of in running markets and get your stake back at greatly reduced odds as well as create a green screen because you never know!
This was the case in the Celtic game - under 2.5 goals was obliterated but NO GOAL was scored in the first 20 minutes and a nice little green screen could have been created there.
I actually made a £47 green screen in the Celtic match by backing under 2.5 goals for the first 20 minutes as advised - the game finished 5-1! Amazingly the first goal came after 22 minutes - this 20 minute marker is sufficient time, if no goals have been scored, for market makers to begin worrying about the amount of goals that will be scored.
Rippling RIng brought home the dutch in the first. Lesling Taylor beat Tidal Bay whose jumping let him down. Place only on Celestial Halo was safe but with safety came a very poor price.
At Lingfield ,I had the biggest profit on the Jailer but he was beaten by Dusthorm so the probability bet came in well. Straw Bear and Afsoun fought out the finish.
FONTWELL - SOFT
140
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Souriceau, 3/1 Simba Sun, 7/2 Harry Tricker, 8/1 Sonning Star, 14/1 Quattrocento, 16/1 Shimoni, 20/1 Jeanquiri, 25/1 Pearl, 50/1 Wait For The Light, 100/1 Damascus Gold, Slo Mo Shun .
The look of a 3 horse race here, and again all 3 can be backed to level stakes leaving a sligt loss on Souriceau and good profits on Simba Sun and Harry Tricker. I have used the back all facility on FAirbot to create a marginal profit on the favourite while ensuring a better payout on the other 2. Souriceau is running under a penalty and although a very good horse, MAY be vulnerable.
340
BETTING FORECAST: 2/9 Thisthatandtother, 5/1 Soleil Fix, 10/1 Back Nine, 25/1 Beareen Lad, 50/1 Kadito .
Been tried in higher classes than this. Of concern to me is the ground, 295 day absence, relatively unknown jockey and race type - hunter cases have seen many shocks over the years. I will be following Thisthatandtother in running after backing him pre race at highly restrictive odds - a simple case of trading as the price ( hopefully) reduces and getting stakes back.
KEMPTON - ALL WEATHER
A very tricky card as is typical of the all weather - the 350 may be interesting if we dutch Baharah with the JAmie Spencer mount Medicine Path. Capricorn Run cannot be dismissed though and Medicine Path is only chosen because of the jockey. Again, slight loss on Baharah to level stakes.
I have dutched all 3 rather than backed the 2 mentioned to level stakes using Fairbot
MUSSELBURGH
300
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Jack The Blaster, 13/8 The Duke´s Speech, 8/1 Stromstad, 12/1 Geton, 33/1 Just Posh ,
BAcking the front 2 to level stakes will leave a near break even on Jack the blaster and a good profit on te Dukes Speech - the odds tell us we could ignore the other 3 in the race so probability wise we should have the winner covered barring mishaps.
FAIRY HOUSE
Heavy ground led me to think that Western Gale in the 21 runner maiden hurdle at 205 may be worth laying, albeit to monitor in running at a current 2.4, any mishap with such a big field could boost the price in running allowing for a trade.
235
BETTING FORECAST: 4/9 Newmill, 6/1 Cailin Alainn, 8/1 Tumbling Dice, 10/1 Albanov, Vintage Treasure, 16/1 Don´t Be Bitin, 50/1 Final Act .
This 4/9 is now evens in the early market - not a positive sign at all. Cailin Alainn is 7/2 and Albanov is the market mover at 9/2 from 10/1 betting forecast. For me, I can engineer a bet where I break even/ slight profit on Newmill and win if Albanov and Caillin Alainn win.
Current prices
Newmill - 2.1 - stake £67
Cailin Allain - 4.4 - stake £40
Albanov - 5.5 - stake £30
The market points to a lay of Newmill but with the above bet, he wins £4.79 if successful as against £37 and £30 for the other 2
345 - against my better judgement given heavy ground and field size, a straight dutch on HEadsontheground ( a Cheltenham festival winner) and Never Compromise has a decent chance of success
FOOTBALL
A lot of fixtures today
Ajax and Feyenoord meet at 1130 and all last 6 meetings have finished over 2.5 goals - looks worth trading here as goals are expected and we can react accordingly
Newcastle and Boro are hardly the most inspiring teams goal wise today and under 2.5 goals trading looks a good enough trade bet here in what I hope will be a low scoring local derby.
Am I missing something here - Villa, with 2 new England internationals, are 11/10 away to a Fulham side which couldn't hit a cow's arse with a banjo. 5 of the last 6 have been draws BUT Villa were not as good as they appear now for a few of those matches. The draw sequence of 5 consecutive draws was broken by a Villa win last time out so from a sequencing perspective there's no angle in.
As a team fighting for its life, we can expect the usual defensive formation from Fulham seeking NOT to concede and hopefully nick a goal.Villa's last 3 aways have been 2 draws and a win - the draws were againt the top 4 and the win against Wigan who I put on a par with Fulham.
11/10 is too big to go ignored and I will hope Villa score first to enable trading. The IDEAL is a lay of Fulham in the match odds market ( again this covers the draw) - we know all about patterns so if Fulham score first, lay them.
Werder Bremen are full of goals and a half time/full time punt against BOchum could pay off, along with over 2,5 goals
Real Madrid lost to Almeria and Barcelona at home are expected to pounce on this opportunity to close the gap to 6 points. Interestingly BArca have drawn 0-0 away to Osasuna last twice and won 3-0 the last 2 times they have played them at the Nou Camp.
3-0 for a 3rd time? Hmm. Here I will back Barca at short odds in the match odds market and trade out when (if!) they score first.
AFRICAN NATIONS
2 difficult matches today - Ghana and Nigeria look very well matched and given the personnel on the pitch you would expect goals but I can't get an angle in - if pushed , an unders trade would be the call as Nigeria step up in cloass of opposition having found it difficult to score.
Ivory Coast on paper are fancied against Guinea and are priced accordingly. I thought I could get an angle in the "to score " market, but Didier Drogba is 1.85 ( odds on!) to score. This looks reasonable enough given his class and enhances the match odds.
It went something like this
Lay Portsmouth, Southampton, Spurs, Sunderland, FCV Dender and Back East Fife and Paris St Germain.
As you know Tevez saved my bacon, East Fife at 1.2 to back left it incredibly late to win 1-0, FCV Dender were facing Anderlecht for the 2nd time in a week and I backed Anderlecht last time, but thought there might be a reaction this time. I did not trust Liverpool to win so laid Sunderland. Portsmouth and Southampton both drew allowing these bets to come in ( rather than backing Palace and Chelsea), Paris St Germain were 1.24 away from home so I took the hint. They gave me a scare with a 1-1 before drawing away to win 3-1. This acca paid 3.58 and I could have increased it with my lay of Man City but the broadband at that stage was too low.
I hope you can see that a liberal sprinkling of lays combined with ultra shorties can really help boost the odds ( I try to pick under 1.3 and preferably home teams and cup games) and also account for any surprise results amongst the most fancied ( eg I would have lost had I chosen Man Utd and Chelsea as back bets - I laid the opposition because these 2 teams were away from home)
Well sequences, in all their forms, end eventually don't they? Man City's unbeaten record at home was ended by Arsenal and the key, I feel, to profitting from sequencing betting is to wait for the right opportunity where that sequence has a chance of ending. Well, with City's under par recent performances and Arsenal's current winning mentality, yesterday was an ideal time, and with (relaitvely speaking) biggish odds on Arsenal, traders had no worries with Arsenal going 2-0 up. Highly recommended that you take advantage of in running markets and get your stake back at greatly reduced odds as well as create a green screen because you never know!
This was the case in the Celtic game - under 2.5 goals was obliterated but NO GOAL was scored in the first 20 minutes and a nice little green screen could have been created there.
I actually made a £47 green screen in the Celtic match by backing under 2.5 goals for the first 20 minutes as advised - the game finished 5-1! Amazingly the first goal came after 22 minutes - this 20 minute marker is sufficient time, if no goals have been scored, for market makers to begin worrying about the amount of goals that will be scored.
Rippling RIng brought home the dutch in the first. Lesling Taylor beat Tidal Bay whose jumping let him down. Place only on Celestial Halo was safe but with safety came a very poor price.
At Lingfield ,I had the biggest profit on the Jailer but he was beaten by Dusthorm so the probability bet came in well. Straw Bear and Afsoun fought out the finish.
FONTWELL - SOFT
140
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Souriceau, 3/1 Simba Sun, 7/2 Harry Tricker, 8/1 Sonning Star, 14/1 Quattrocento, 16/1 Shimoni, 20/1 Jeanquiri, 25/1 Pearl, 50/1 Wait For The Light, 100/1 Damascus Gold, Slo Mo Shun .
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| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: SOURICEAU (nap) was never in danger when putting older rivals in their place at Folkestone and, now back against the juniors, a quick follow-up looks on the cards. Simba Sun may prove most troublesome.[AWJ] |
The look of a 3 horse race here, and again all 3 can be backed to level stakes leaving a sligt loss on Souriceau and good profits on Simba Sun and Harry Tricker. I have used the back all facility on FAirbot to create a marginal profit on the favourite while ensuring a better payout on the other 2. Souriceau is running under a penalty and although a very good horse, MAY be vulnerable.
340
BETTING FORECAST: 2/9 Thisthatandtother, 5/1 Soleil Fix, 10/1 Back Nine, 25/1 Beareen Lad, 50/1 Kadito .
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| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: THISTHATANDTOTHER ideally wants better ground but he should get away with it at this level and he can emulate Le Passing, who won this 12 months ago for the same yard on his debut in this division.[ |
Been tried in higher classes than this. Of concern to me is the ground, 295 day absence, relatively unknown jockey and race type - hunter cases have seen many shocks over the years. I will be following Thisthatandtother in running after backing him pre race at highly restrictive odds - a simple case of trading as the price ( hopefully) reduces and getting stakes back.
KEMPTON - ALL WEATHER
A very tricky card as is typical of the all weather - the 350 may be interesting if we dutch Baharah with the JAmie Spencer mount Medicine Path. Capricorn Run cannot be dismissed though and Medicine Path is only chosen because of the jockey. Again, slight loss on Baharah to level stakes.
I have dutched all 3 rather than backed the 2 mentioned to level stakes using Fairbot
MUSSELBURGH
300
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Jack The Blaster, 13/8 The Duke´s Speech, 8/1 Stromstad, 12/1 Geton, 33/1 Just Posh ,
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| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: In the likely absence of Leslingtaylor, THE DUKE'S SPEECH is given another chance over fences. Jack The Blaster isn't sure to want the drop in trip but should still have plenty to offer at this level and is much preferred of the others |
BAcking the front 2 to level stakes will leave a near break even on Jack the blaster and a good profit on te Dukes Speech - the odds tell us we could ignore the other 3 in the race so probability wise we should have the winner covered barring mishaps.
FAIRY HOUSE
Heavy ground led me to think that Western Gale in the 21 runner maiden hurdle at 205 may be worth laying, albeit to monitor in running at a current 2.4, any mishap with such a big field could boost the price in running allowing for a trade.
235
BETTING FORECAST: 4/9 Newmill, 6/1 Cailin Alainn, 8/1 Tumbling Dice, 10/1 Albanov, Vintage Treasure, 16/1 Don´t Be Bitin, 50/1 Final Act .
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| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: He hasn't won over fences since the Champion Chase here in 2006 but former 2-mile champion NEWMILL will never get a better opportunity. He showed that he was close to his best when a close up last of three to Nickname and Kicking King at Gowran where he had every chance in the straight, the best he has looked over fences in almost two years. The ground conditions are not his favoured, but he's almost impossible to oppose. |
This 4/9 is now evens in the early market - not a positive sign at all. Cailin Alainn is 7/2 and Albanov is the market mover at 9/2 from 10/1 betting forecast. For me, I can engineer a bet where I break even/ slight profit on Newmill and win if Albanov and Caillin Alainn win.
Current prices
Newmill - 2.1 - stake £67
Cailin Allain - 4.4 - stake £40
Albanov - 5.5 - stake £30
The market points to a lay of Newmill but with the above bet, he wins £4.79 if successful as against £37 and £30 for the other 2
345 - against my better judgement given heavy ground and field size, a straight dutch on HEadsontheground ( a Cheltenham festival winner) and Never Compromise has a decent chance of success
FOOTBALL
A lot of fixtures today
Ajax and Feyenoord meet at 1130 and all last 6 meetings have finished over 2.5 goals - looks worth trading here as goals are expected and we can react accordingly
Newcastle and Boro are hardly the most inspiring teams goal wise today and under 2.5 goals trading looks a good enough trade bet here in what I hope will be a low scoring local derby.
Am I missing something here - Villa, with 2 new England internationals, are 11/10 away to a Fulham side which couldn't hit a cow's arse with a banjo. 5 of the last 6 have been draws BUT Villa were not as good as they appear now for a few of those matches. The draw sequence of 5 consecutive draws was broken by a Villa win last time out so from a sequencing perspective there's no angle in.
As a team fighting for its life, we can expect the usual defensive formation from Fulham seeking NOT to concede and hopefully nick a goal.Villa's last 3 aways have been 2 draws and a win - the draws were againt the top 4 and the win against Wigan who I put on a par with Fulham.
11/10 is too big to go ignored and I will hope Villa score first to enable trading. The IDEAL is a lay of Fulham in the match odds market ( again this covers the draw) - we know all about patterns so if Fulham score first, lay them.
Werder Bremen are full of goals and a half time/full time punt against BOchum could pay off, along with over 2,5 goals
Real Madrid lost to Almeria and Barcelona at home are expected to pounce on this opportunity to close the gap to 6 points. Interestingly BArca have drawn 0-0 away to Osasuna last twice and won 3-0 the last 2 times they have played them at the Nou Camp.
3-0 for a 3rd time? Hmm. Here I will back Barca at short odds in the match odds market and trade out when (if!) they score first.
AFRICAN NATIONS
2 difficult matches today - Ghana and Nigeria look very well matched and given the personnel on the pitch you would expect goals but I can't get an angle in - if pushed , an unders trade would be the call as Nigeria step up in cloass of opposition having found it difficult to score.
Ivory Coast on paper are fancied against Guinea and are priced accordingly. I thought I could get an angle in the "to score " market, but Didier Drogba is 1.85 ( odds on!) to score. This looks reasonable enough given his class and enhances the match odds.
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