8 FEB
publication date: Feb 8, 2008
I got the Clonmel listed race right with Cooldine winning again .Undone again in another novices hurdle in the 310 Huntingdon where the each way angle would have paid off. At Southwell, Quiffy ended up being the money horse, 6/1 betting forecast in to 2/1 with Salut Saint Cloud out to 9/2 from a morning 13/5 - I could onlygo by the early prices and put my faith in their accuracy . Squiffy placed, Mujamead won again - so look out for laying in another handicap soon .
Share my dream placed at 5/1 as Celtic Son didn't give his running - stakes returned at least
BANGOR ON DEE
Soft and HEavy on both courses
145
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Rapid Increase, 9/4 Latanier, 5/1 Monsignorita, 7/1 Such A Man, 14/1 Carrickmines, 20/1 Fortyshadesofgreen, 25/1 Porta Vogie, Ptibaby, 50/1 Masterjoe, 100/1 Drumroe, Ocean Fou, Twenti Twenti .
With ground conditions far from ideal, and a novices hurdle to boot, a speculative each way punt on Monsignorita and Such a Man , who, judging by the betting forecast look the most likely alternatives, should take advantage of any under performance by the 2 main protagonists.
250
BETTING FORECAST: 1/5 Carruthers, 9/2 A Glass In Thyne, 7/1 Innox, 66/1 Bringewood Fox, Coorbawn Vic, 100/1 Harlequin Hugo, 200/1 Ardfry, Romeo .
3 miles in soft - it's a long way to back a 1/5 shot. Lay material for me here ( ideally monitor in running - weight concession - soft ground - long enough distance to make a mistake)
Of course there are 2 very obvious each way bets in A glass of thyne and Innox with the straight 8 allowing for paying for 3rd place
205 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Barbers Shop, 5/2 Oscar Park, 11/2 Russian Around, 6/1 Star Shot, 40/1 Cardenas, 50/1 Shelomoh, 66/1 Palmers Peak, 100/1 Whist Drive .
If the Spotlighter puts up a convincing enough argument, then it would seem that Barbers shop is there to oppose. The straight 8 here, again I will go in mob handed with Russian around and Star Shot each way. As a beginners chase, I am hoping for a surprise and the race not to finish 1-2 Barbers shop and Oscar PArk.
Alternatives - Barbers Shop's questionable jumping means perhaps he's layable to back in running at a higher price if he makes any mistakes
300 SOUTHWELL
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Bethanys Boy, 4/1 Global Traffic, 7/1 Weet For Ever, 8/1 Nabir, 12/1 Simply St Lucia, 14/1 Cantley Spirit, 25/1 Topwell, 33/1 Art Of Being, Mi Odds .
Potential price gapper "if he reproduces his latest performance under suitable conditions, he will be very hard to beat" - decent enough price gap - would prefer bigger.TOP RPR - TOP TOPSPEED - course and distance winner - best in at the weights
NEGATIVES - a claimer - arrrgh!
Worth a small punt I would say despite the reservations about the race type.
A different approach today, maybe in reaction to the novices hurdle yesterday where the obvious contenders underperformed - perhaps today ground can be in our favour. I am writing this early so usual look at morning prices puts me at a slight disadvantage.
FOOTY
The Palace v Charlton game is of interest - we've missed the sequencing bet with Palace - 12 game unbeaten run had to end sometime. The prices of 5/4 and 7/4 indicate they can't be split - the 5/4 quote probably because Charlton are at home. This signals perhaps an under 2.5 goal interest ( I'm going purely on odds here) - with Charlton's foray into the Premiership, recent head to heads are meaningless bar the game in September which finished 1-0. Charlon 5th and Palace 7th - indicative of a tight game early on so the unders is a trade for the 1st 20 minutes or so.
Share my dream placed at 5/1 as Celtic Son didn't give his running - stakes returned at least
BANGOR ON DEE
Soft and HEavy on both courses
145
|
|
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Rapid Increase boasts the best form but whether he can reproduce it on this sort of surface remains to be seen and a better bet is LATANIER, who looked a fair prospect in winning his bumper and now goes hurdling with the stable banging in winners all over the shop |
With ground conditions far from ideal, and a novices hurdle to boot, a speculative each way punt on Monsignorita and Such a Man , who, judging by the betting forecast look the most likely alternatives, should take advantage of any under performance by the 2 main protagonists.
250
BETTING FORECAST: 1/5 Carruthers, 9/2 A Glass In Thyne, 7/1 Innox, 66/1 Bringewood Fox, Coorbawn Vic, 100/1 Harlequin Hugo, 200/1 Ardfry, Romeo .
|
|
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: CARRUTHERS looks a relentless galloper who should be suited by this step up in trip and should manage the weight concession to A Glass In Thyne and Innox even though both have been decent staying chasers in their time |
3 miles in soft - it's a long way to back a 1/5 shot. Lay material for me here ( ideally monitor in running - weight concession - soft ground - long enough distance to make a mistake)
Of course there are 2 very obvious each way bets in A glass of thyne and Innox with the straight 8 allowing for paying for 3rd place
205 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Barbers Shop, 5/2 Oscar Park, 11/2 Russian Around, 6/1 Star Shot, 40/1 Cardenas, 50/1 Shelomoh, 66/1 Palmers Peak, 100/1 Whist Drive .
|
|
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The fact that Barbers Shop was a beaten favourite on three occasions over hurdles, twice at odds on, rings alarm bells and, despite outstanding form claims, he is one to have reservations about given the shortcomings in his jumping technique. Oscar Park will be very hard to beat if transferring his hurdling form to fences but has to put a poor run behind him and would appreciate a longer trip. In the circumstances, RUSSIAN AROUND may be the best each-way solution |
If the Spotlighter puts up a convincing enough argument, then it would seem that Barbers shop is there to oppose. The straight 8 here, again I will go in mob handed with Russian around and Star Shot each way. As a beginners chase, I am hoping for a surprise and the race not to finish 1-2 Barbers shop and Oscar PArk.
Alternatives - Barbers Shop's questionable jumping means perhaps he's layable to back in running at a higher price if he makes any mistakes
300 SOUTHWELL
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Bethanys Boy, 4/1 Global Traffic, 7/1 Weet For Ever, 8/1 Nabir, 12/1 Simply St Lucia, 14/1 Cantley Spirit, 25/1 Topwell, 33/1 Art Of Being, Mi Odds .
|
|
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Global Traffic will appreciate the return to claiming company and ought to go well, but BETHANYS BOY has been entered on a very realistic mark and if he reproduces his latest performance under suitable conditions, he will be very hard to beat |
Potential price gapper "if he reproduces his latest performance under suitable conditions, he will be very hard to beat" - decent enough price gap - would prefer bigger.TOP RPR - TOP TOPSPEED - course and distance winner - best in at the weights
NEGATIVES - a claimer - arrrgh!
Worth a small punt I would say despite the reservations about the race type.
A different approach today, maybe in reaction to the novices hurdle yesterday where the obvious contenders underperformed - perhaps today ground can be in our favour. I am writing this early so usual look at morning prices puts me at a slight disadvantage.
FOOTY
The Palace v Charlton game is of interest - we've missed the sequencing bet with Palace - 12 game unbeaten run had to end sometime. The prices of 5/4 and 7/4 indicate they can't be split - the 5/4 quote probably because Charlton are at home. This signals perhaps an under 2.5 goal interest ( I'm going purely on odds here) - with Charlton's foray into the Premiership, recent head to heads are meaningless bar the game in September which finished 1-0. Charlon 5th and Palace 7th - indicative of a tight game early on so the unders is a trade for the 1st 20 minutes or so.
0 Comments Posted Leave a comment