9 FEB
publication date: Feb 9, 2008
Oh novice hurdles - why do you mock me so? First the market leaders decide not to give their running when I dutch them, then, when I go for the speculative option, they decide to give their running.
Carruthers won as he liked but at least A glass of Thyne and Innox finished 2nd and 3rd at 9/1 and 14/1, the 14/1 would have paid out more for the place with traditional bookmakers than you would have got winning on Carruthers!
Russian around placed.
Bleeping claimers eh! - BEthanys Boy managed 2nd while near market rival Global traffic won - it seems we can genuinely blame the jockey here if the headline in the Racing Post is anything to go by.
"Mackay grabs defeat from the jaws of victory" is the headline
The Palace game wasn't in running but final score was 2-0 so anyone taking the under 2.5 goals would have been happy
AYR - HEAVY
115
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Stormy Lord, 4/1 Inch High, Prince Linamix, 5/1 Sinatas, 6/1 Soubriquet, 10/1 Gunadoir, 20/1 Charlie Tango, 33/1 The Weaver, Wise Choice .
Stormy Lord, Prince Linamix, and Inch High are all currently 4/1 with Sinatas at 5/1 and all can be backed to level stakes - if one of them wins then we get an evens payout.
Of course it's heavy ground at Ayr which puts a spanner in the works
Although there are some potentials at Ayr, I will remain disciplined and swerve the heavy ground - this being a Saturday there are ample opportunities elsewhere and in different sports.
LINGFIELD
205
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Ace Of Spies, 5/1 Copperwood, 6/1 Boy On A Swing, 8/1 Brave Hawk, Throne Of Power, 10/1 Fairfield Flame, 20/1 Golden Horus, 25/1 Gang Show, 33/1 Station Place .
Potential price gapper here - let's build up the evidence - Mark Johnston trained must always garner respect. Price gap is evident in the live market too. Progressive form (albeit a maiden) of 7-3-2 signals he's getting there. - TOP RPR - TOP TOPSPEED - unconvincing Spotlight comments
"but could be some mileage in taking him on at the likely price"
NEGATIVES - maiden race - turned over last time out at shorter odds - 3 debutants and 4 others who have only had the one run and therefore likely to improve. - class 5 is poor class
Ace of spies looks to be a good place only bet for me, albeit at cramped odds. I am unsure whether the horse will win or not but am loathe to lay him because the chance is clear
NAAS
Soft to HEavy ground
BEgins with a 25 runner maiden hurdle - TAXI !
Now why is a horse 5/4 in a 25 runner maiden hurdle. This screams out to be laid but I can't help wondering why the bookies show 11/10 the field - Sarteano is 11/4.
I can back both to level stakes and still profit - and will look forward to the howls of laughter after the horse is beaten by a 66/1 shot in a race of 25 runners.
NEWBURY
Good to soft
210
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Voy Por Ustedes, 6/4 Master Minded, 8/1 Mahogany Blaze, 10/1 L´Antartique, 14/1 Pablo Du Charmil, 500/1 Monzon .
A high class field and looking like a Cheltenham boy's reunion this meeting. Obviously the front 2 here can be backed to level stakes but returns will be marginal.
I quite like the following
Voy por estedes - 2.38 - back with £8 PROFIT £6.69
Master minded - 2.64 - back with £4 - loss £1.36
TOTAL STAKE £12
A 1/2 bet on Voy por estedes at curent prices
245
Denman returns and the bookies are giving nothing away - an ideal opportunity to back and lay off in running as odds reduce.
The more speculative amongst you may like to do this with Celestial Gold at better odds in the hope the horse gives Denman a fight - remember these are only horses and not infallable ( well unless your name is Kauto Star)
WARWICK
The scoop 6 meeting = says it all really !
A mention for Basalt in the last on a card which is very difficult at Wolverhampton.
I am trying not to be dragged in to over betting on the weekend and I hope by sticking to the above, I can eek out a return of sorts.
FOOTBALL
SOme potential 6 pointers in the relegation scrap in the premiership - the one standing out is Sunderland v Wigan.
I would guess this will mirror the recent Sunderland v Birmingham match which finished 2-0 to the home team. Home advantage would seem to be the key to SUnderland's success. Sunderland have scored twice at home in their last 3 ( most impressively against Bolton) and Wigan have scored once in 2 of their last 3 away outings and have scored in 5 of the last 6 matches.
The last meaningful match ended 3-0 to Wigan at home. This seems to be anomolous when compared to other results.
I will chance an under 2.5 goal trade here if the match is in running - there is just so much to play for for both sides. Currently 1.7 , I would look to get out about 1.50 for a small profit, or after 20 minutes
It doesn't get any easier for King Kev's Toon Army - having already faced Man UTd, Arse, and Chelski away, they face a rapidly improving Villa side.
I'm going to venture into the half time/full time market here and back Villa/Villa at 3.1 , Draw /Villa at 5.6 and Draw/Draw at 5.8
I think Newcastle won't win this one.
As I have already mentioned Spuds away to Derby are 8/15 - why so big?
Interestingly, away from home Spurs have only scored once in 3 games. The price is too big to miss and is a straight win only bet for me, although I note the imporvement in Derby with 2 consecutive 1-1 draws showing a bit of fight.
BUT 4-0 last meeting between these 2 at White Hart lane>>>>>>>?
Everton at home look solid against a Reading side who don't travel well. NOTE - Tim Cahill played for the Aussies mid week - will he be fatigued? - Hope not!
Match odds can again be enhanced by backing half time/full time Everton/Everton and Draw /Everton.
I can't see Reading getting anything out of either halves
MUG PUNTER ACCA
Roll the drums - gather the children around the PC to gaze in wonderment at another mug punter acca which is destined to fail but keep delivering!
The price of 2.8 tells you all you need to know about the difficulty of getting this one in. Newcastle shouldn't win at Villa. Stuttgart have been very impressive recently and odds on at home shouldnt lose. I've laid Stenhousemuir - going by the odds Eat Fife are likely winners but this is lower league Scottish footy and is not my forte. Laying Derby covers the dreaw (2 1-1's recently)
I have included 2 back bets purely based on their odds Rangers and Panaithiokos should have little difficulty.
Potential sticking points are Newcastle and Reading -the lay price is lower than I normally do. Greek footy too can be a disaster from a betting perspective.
Let's see how we get on
EGG CHASERS
Half time full time France/France at 1.43 is worthy of support I feel at home against a stuttering Irish.
Going purely by the Racing point , over 28.5 points for France at 1.9 represents a decent bet- they have scored 40+ against Ireland in recent matches and near evens is more appealing to those who shirk the 1.43 price above.
As ever, at the wekend, being choosy is key with the myriad betting opportunities available and I hope I have not over extended myself.
Carruthers won as he liked but at least A glass of Thyne and Innox finished 2nd and 3rd at 9/1 and 14/1, the 14/1 would have paid out more for the place with traditional bookmakers than you would have got winning on Carruthers!
Russian around placed.
Bleeping claimers eh! - BEthanys Boy managed 2nd while near market rival Global traffic won - it seems we can genuinely blame the jockey here if the headline in the Racing Post is anything to go by.
"Mackay grabs defeat from the jaws of victory" is the headline
The Palace game wasn't in running but final score was 2-0 so anyone taking the under 2.5 goals would have been happy
AYR - HEAVY
115
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Stormy Lord, 4/1 Inch High, Prince Linamix, 5/1 Sinatas, 6/1 Soubriquet, 10/1 Gunadoir, 20/1 Charlie Tango, 33/1 The Weaver, Wise Choice .
|
|
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Stormy Lord is interesting off this lower hurdle mark and shaped as though a return to winning ways was imminent over fences last time. However, he's far from sure to get his own way in front with Inch High in the field and this could be run to suit SINATAS, who has shown ability in all three starts over hurdles and is open to plenty of improvement on this handicap debut |
Stormy Lord, Prince Linamix, and Inch High are all currently 4/1 with Sinatas at 5/1 and all can be backed to level stakes - if one of them wins then we get an evens payout.
Of course it's heavy ground at Ayr which puts a spanner in the works
Although there are some potentials at Ayr, I will remain disciplined and swerve the heavy ground - this being a Saturday there are ample opportunities elsewhere and in different sports.
LINGFIELD
205
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Ace Of Spies, 5/1 Copperwood, 6/1 Boy On A Swing, 8/1 Brave Hawk, Throne Of Power, 10/1 Fairfield Flame, 20/1 Golden Horus, 25/1 Gang Show, 33/1 Station Place .
|
|
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Ace Of Spies sets the standard but he was turned over at short odds last time and there are some interesting sorts in opposition. Brave Hawk and Throne Of Power both make some appeal, but preference is for BOY ON A SWING, who was too green to do himself justice on debut but should know much more this time.[PSm] |
Potential price gapper here - let's build up the evidence - Mark Johnston trained must always garner respect. Price gap is evident in the live market too. Progressive form (albeit a maiden) of 7-3-2 signals he's getting there. - TOP RPR - TOP TOPSPEED - unconvincing Spotlight comments
"but could be some mileage in taking him on at the likely price"
NEGATIVES - maiden race - turned over last time out at shorter odds - 3 debutants and 4 others who have only had the one run and therefore likely to improve. - class 5 is poor class
Ace of spies looks to be a good place only bet for me, albeit at cramped odds. I am unsure whether the horse will win or not but am loathe to lay him because the chance is clear
NAAS
Soft to HEavy ground
BEgins with a 25 runner maiden hurdle - TAXI !
Now why is a horse 5/4 in a 25 runner maiden hurdle. This screams out to be laid but I can't help wondering why the bookies show 11/10 the field - Sarteano is 11/4.
I can back both to level stakes and still profit - and will look forward to the howls of laughter after the horse is beaten by a 66/1 shot in a race of 25 runners.
NEWBURY
Good to soft
210
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Voy Por Ustedes, 6/4 Master Minded, 8/1 Mahogany Blaze, 10/1 L´Antartique, 14/1 Pablo Du Charmil, 500/1 Monzon .
|
|
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The reputation of VOY POR USTEDES was dented by his comprehensive defeat by Twist Magic in the Tingle Creek but the reigning 2m champion chaser resumed winning ways at Kempton and may be able to outgun the up-and-coming Master Minded, who jumped well when winning a handicap last time and is a serious rival in receipt of the weight. |
A high class field and looking like a Cheltenham boy's reunion this meeting. Obviously the front 2 here can be backed to level stakes but returns will be marginal.
I quite like the following
Voy por estedes - 2.38 - back with £8 PROFIT £6.69
Master minded - 2.64 - back with £4 - loss £1.36
TOTAL STAKE £12
A 1/2 bet on Voy por estedes at curent prices
245
Denman returns and the bookies are giving nothing away - an ideal opportunity to back and lay off in running as odds reduce.
The more speculative amongst you may like to do this with Celestial Gold at better odds in the hope the horse gives Denman a fight - remember these are only horses and not infallable ( well unless your name is Kauto Star)
WARWICK
The scoop 6 meeting = says it all really !
A mention for Basalt in the last on a card which is very difficult at Wolverhampton.
I am trying not to be dragged in to over betting on the weekend and I hope by sticking to the above, I can eek out a return of sorts.
FOOTBALL
SOme potential 6 pointers in the relegation scrap in the premiership - the one standing out is Sunderland v Wigan.
I would guess this will mirror the recent Sunderland v Birmingham match which finished 2-0 to the home team. Home advantage would seem to be the key to SUnderland's success. Sunderland have scored twice at home in their last 3 ( most impressively against Bolton) and Wigan have scored once in 2 of their last 3 away outings and have scored in 5 of the last 6 matches.
The last meaningful match ended 3-0 to Wigan at home. This seems to be anomolous when compared to other results.
I will chance an under 2.5 goal trade here if the match is in running - there is just so much to play for for both sides. Currently 1.7 , I would look to get out about 1.50 for a small profit, or after 20 minutes
It doesn't get any easier for King Kev's Toon Army - having already faced Man UTd, Arse, and Chelski away, they face a rapidly improving Villa side.
I'm going to venture into the half time/full time market here and back Villa/Villa at 3.1 , Draw /Villa at 5.6 and Draw/Draw at 5.8
I think Newcastle won't win this one.
As I have already mentioned Spuds away to Derby are 8/15 - why so big?
Interestingly, away from home Spurs have only scored once in 3 games. The price is too big to miss and is a straight win only bet for me, although I note the imporvement in Derby with 2 consecutive 1-1 draws showing a bit of fight.
BUT 4-0 last meeting between these 2 at White Hart lane>>>>>>>?
Everton at home look solid against a Reading side who don't travel well. NOTE - Tim Cahill played for the Aussies mid week - will he be fatigued? - Hope not!
Match odds can again be enhanced by backing half time/full time Everton/Everton and Draw /Everton.
I can't see Reading getting anything out of either halves
MUG PUNTER ACCA
Roll the drums - gather the children around the PC to gaze in wonderment at another mug punter acca which is destined to fail but keep delivering!
| 8 Selections Chosen | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aston Villa v Newcastle (Laying Newcastle @ 5.88) | |||
| 2 | Stuttgart v H Berlin (Laying H Berlin @ 6.76) | |||
| 3 | East Fife v Stenhousemuir (Laying Stenhousemuir @ 9.36) | |||
| 4 | Derby v Tottenham (Laying Derby @ 9.19) | |||
| 5 | Everton v Reading (Laying Reading @ 9.17) | |||
| 6 | Rangers v Falkirk (Backing Rangers @ 1.2) | |||
| 7 | Panathinaikos v Veroia (Backing Panathinaikos @ 1.14) | |||
| 8 | Galatasaray v Manisaspor (Laying Manisaspor @ 31.74) | |||
| 8-Folds | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| |
Selections | Odds* | Stake | Potential win |
 |
1,2,3,4,5,6,7 and 8 | 2.8 | £100.00 | £180.00 |
The price of 2.8 tells you all you need to know about the difficulty of getting this one in. Newcastle shouldn't win at Villa. Stuttgart have been very impressive recently and odds on at home shouldnt lose. I've laid Stenhousemuir - going by the odds Eat Fife are likely winners but this is lower league Scottish footy and is not my forte. Laying Derby covers the dreaw (2 1-1's recently)
I have included 2 back bets purely based on their odds Rangers and Panaithiokos should have little difficulty.
Potential sticking points are Newcastle and Reading -the lay price is lower than I normally do. Greek footy too can be a disaster from a betting perspective.
Let's see how we get on
EGG CHASERS
Half time full time France/France at 1.43 is worthy of support I feel at home against a stuttering Irish.
Going purely by the Racing point , over 28.5 points for France at 1.9 represents a decent bet- they have scored 40+ against Ireland in recent matches and near evens is more appealing to those who shirk the 1.43 price above.
As ever, at the wekend, being choosy is key with the myriad betting opportunities available and I hope I have not over extended myself.
14 Comments Posted Leave a comment