11 FEB
No problems as Group Captain and Working Title shared 1st and 2nd at Exeter. Rustarix played 2nd fiddle to Classic Fiddle with King Louis still running I think. Strawberry was a neck 2nd to My Petra.
Prime factor's win produced a near 2/1 return with some intelligent staking at Kempton . Snowy morning placed at Leopardstown. Well done to J'y Vole winning again up in class.
The winning margin bet in the MAnchester Derby precluded us from getting involved at short odds and gave us a neutral bet.
I want to look at the ASian bet again because I may have stumbled across something which can ensure us an involvement in all outcomes with worse case (in my case )£10 loss.
Man Utd -1.5 If Man Utd win by 2 or more £190.00
If Man Utd win by 1 £0.00
If Man Utd do not win by 2 or more -£200.00
BET 2
Man City +1.0&+1.5
If Man City draw or win £256.00
If Man Utd win by 1 £128.00
If Man Utd win by 2 or more -£200.00
BET 1
Man Utd win by 2 or more PROFIT £190. BUT BET 2 If Man Utd win by 2 or more LOSS £200
NET LOSS £10
If Man UTD win by 1 - BET 1 BREAK EVEN STAKES RETURNED BUT BET 2 PROFIT £128 NET PROFIT £128
If Man City Win or Draw BET 1LOSS £200 BET 2 WIN £256 - NET PROFIT £56
Now surely this is a great bet? Or have I missed something?
The Milan dutch went extremely well - first half no goals allowed market makers too question Milan's chances and respond by increasing the odds
I got the Chelsea match right in the half time/full time market with a nice profit on Draw /Draw .
SO much for 0-0 half time in the Real match - needless to say they scraped through by the odd goal in 7 and that was without horse face!
Porto won 4-0 as a 1/12 shot should!
PLUMPTON
GOOD TO SOFT AND SOFT
240
BETTING FORECAST: 8/15 Verasi, 3/1 Supreme Huntress, 6/1 Burren Legend, 25/1 The Speaker, 33/1 Master Alf .
|
|
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Burren Legend and Supreme Huntress are pretty useful but the latter has not yet shown it over fences and VERASI, despite not having ideal conditions, should be hard to beat |
Another 2 horse race - interesting Supreme Huntress is around 7/4 morning prices. With current BEtfair prices again we can back both to level stakes and a small loss on Verasi with a just under evens return on Supreme Huntress - like Prime factor yesterday sometimes they come in!
WETHERBY
Good to soft
BEgins with a fillies only maiden hurdle - erm, no thanks!
Nothing appeals
WOLVERHAMPTON
505
BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Rapidity, 9/2 Calistos Quest, 10/1 Bury Treasure, Hellfire Bay, 16/1 Marino Prince, 20/1 Carry On Cleo, John Potts, 25/1 Kiwi Princess .
|
|
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Calistos Quest is a fascinating runner on his handicap debut/first run for Marco Botti but RAPIDITY should be up to defying a 12lb penalty. His Southwell win was achieved with the minimum of fuss and this longer trip should be within his rang |
I don't know whether I'm a couple of races early here in opposing Rapidity but the 12 lb hike in the weights ( yes a multiple handicap winner) puts me off. A lay for me to monitor in running
FOOTY
The Arsenal game is interesting today - Blackburn have drawn their last 3 but not faced any of the top 4 sides. last head to head of any meaning was 1-1 at Ewood Park. This would lead me to believe, from a sequencing perspective that the draw is worth laying tonight.
With the added incentive of Chelsea drawing and Man Utd losing, Arsenal have all the motivation they need.
 |
Arsenal -1.0&-1.5
If Arsenal win by 2 or more
If Arsenal win by 1
If Arsenal do not win
|
  |
£168.00
-£100.00
-£200.00
|
||
|
Blackburn +1.0&+1.5
If Blackburn draw or win
If Arsenal win by 1
If Arsenal win by 2 or more
|
|
£218.00
£109.00
-£200.00
|
||
Again, if Arsenal win by 1 goal net we profit £9
If Arsenal win by 2 or more , slight loss of £32
If Arsenal do not win, we profit by £18
Not a bad scenario? Poor returns though.
I'm just thinking aloud here.
Again, half time/full time is interesting here. Using staking of £20, 10, £5 or increments thereof ,we can back arse/Arse, Draw/Arse, and Draw/Draw (despite the sequences being against it)
12 Comments Posted Leave a comment