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12FEB
Verasi won, just about in a race of fallers. Rapidity won again - it's so frustrating trying to call when the winning sequence will end - watch out soon - remember Confidentiality! We need to wait for the handicapper to take a hand, and see a slight increase in odds which may imply more difficulty in getting the 4 timer.
Slight loss on the ASians thanks to Adebayour!. Again, another example of sequencing - revolving around Blackburn's recent draws and the fact they drew with the Arse last time. This ended last night, and laying the draw would have paid off. The half time/full time dutch came in FOLKSTONE GOOD TO SOFT 130 BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Aux Le Bahnn, 5/2 Another Brother, 9/2 Double Shot, Inghwung, 20/1 Captain Tidds, Funny Fellow, 33/1 Selfcertified, 66/1 Blue Rebel, 100/1 Mysaynoway, 150/1 Mustamad, Political Dissent, Reynards Return, Rockmoor Pond, Surely Keen .
A possible dutch on the first 2 here to level stakes although this is a maiden hurdle. It looks a 4 horse race, but we need to check for any 16/1 system bets. Captain Tidds is currently 14/1 and is the only real market mover. Given the race type , I will try each way on him, mindful that we ideally need to see a replication of this price nearer the off. More speculative but as a maiden hurdle, these races can sometimes surprise. 230 BETTING FORECAST: Evs Polinamix, 5/4 Treasury Counsel, 12/1 Safari Adventures, 20/1 Silver Serg, 25/1 Knock Boy, 33/1 El Batal .
Mindful of the fact this is 2 mile 5 and a beginners chase, it should, barring falls, concern the front 2, and again, level stakes will produce a small profit on Polinamix and about £6 profit for £10 level stakes on Treasury Counsel. 330 BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Wild Ground, 5/1 Kisha King, 12/1 Star Glow, Victree, Walton Way, 14/1 Buckland Gold, 16/1 Another Chat, Rowley Hill, 25/1 Brave Broncho, 33/1 Red Ensign, Sett Aside, Ushnu, 50/1 Carriage Ride, Runshan, 66/1 Flying Druid, Sharbasia .
Possible price gapper - 6/4 early morning prices with next rival at 8/1 now Kisha King a non runner - POSITIVES - top RPR. top TOPSPEED, 12 of 14 tipsters' choices, form 32121, course winner, POSTDATA selection, James Davies has ridden the horse before, no ground concerns - good ground NEGATIVES - Spotlight is hardly glowing here , citing possible stamina doubts but the October race he mentions was in heavy ground after a lay off. The horse has run the distance before and has been around 2 1/2 miles recently. If handled correctly there is no reason why he should not see out the trip in better ground today with a jockey who knows him well. - 15 runner field -possibility of accidents A decent enough bet, but 3 miles is a long way to hold my stake! - Worth a chance I think - preference for place only NEWCASTLE GOOD TO SOFT - MORNING INSPECTION Some concern with morning inspection because of frost. 140 BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Best Prospect, 5/2 Noble Alan, 7/2 Ignotus, 15/2 Mutawaffer, 16/1 Jamestown Bay, 20/1 Description, Oscar Gogo, Pre Token, Veiled Applause, 25/1 Rainbow Zest, 33/1 Bonneta, 66/1 College Land Boy, 100/1 Ambit, The Real Alydaly, Vie A Deux, 200/1 Classic Act .
Another maiden hurdle and not a good betting prospect, but we can dutch the first 3 , currently priced on betfair at 3.55, 3.55, and 5.1 - I would use £10, £10, £5 leaving returns of £10, £10, £5. Mutawaffer is the fly in the ointment and i would confirm selections near the off to account for market movers ( none at present) As things stand ,we have a good chance of selecting the winner from Best Prospect, Ignatus, and Noble Alan 410 BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 Auntie Kathleen, Predestine, 5/1 Hold The Bid, Silent Bay, Trisons Star, 10/1 Low Reactor, Thorsgill, 14/1 Best China .
Auntie Kathleen each way - yes this is a very tight race but I remember the horse from previous runs and at an each way price should be competitive for at least a place ( caution -7/2, 7/2, 5/1,5/1,5/1 indicates how tight this really is) 440 BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Another Promise, 10/1 Corrib Lad, 14/1 Cha Cha Cha Dancer, Kyathos, Polly Whitefoot, Wee Bertie, 20/1 Longdale, Windygate, 25/1 Buckstruther, Chapel Flowers, Sybarite Chief, 33/1 Baie Des Flamands, Ever Special, Fair Spin, Ragador, Thenford Sir, 66/1 Rudaki, The Masters Lesson .
Another definite price gapper - now, as that irritating mid Atlantic accented Lloyd Grossman would say, " LEt's look at the evidence" POSITIVES - price gap replicated in the early market with all other horses priced in double figures "HARD TO GET AWAY FROM" - trigger words from Spotlight and there's no "ifs and buts" either. -top RPR - 10 from 13 tipsters' choices - postdata selection - knows how to win, form 21151 . NEGATIVES - 292 day absence to overcome - new jockey Timmy Murphy has never ridden him before - this is an 18 runner field and a handicap hurdle. - The absence is of some concern to me - why such a lengthy absence - there's no smoke without fire. This race screams out for each way thievery, but who to chose? As things stand, Another Promise is worth a chance , ideally place only, and ideally to monitor in running. There are no immediate ground concerns which should affect coming back from a lay off. ALL WEATHER -another tricky card. 2 potential price gappers each with evidence for and against - it is really up to you, not me, to weigh up this evidence and decide whether to back or entertain an each way option. FOOTY West Brom at 8/13 look worth entertaining this evening although the price indicates a tough affair. Smarting from their loss at the weekend ,there should be goal in this and perhaps an over 2.5 goals trade could offer an over evens alternative. |
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