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I would love it if we beat them . . .

publication date: Mar 1, 2008
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Hello

"I would love it if we beat them!"

So said my neighbour as we talked about his carpets
hanging over his washing line, and this brought the
Newcastle v Manchester United game at the
weekend to mind - what a coincidence! Yes King
Kev, the messiah of the Toon Army faces another
home loss to Man Utd this weekend.  Poor
Newcastle fans - a nightmare run in recently since
the Brut splashing be permed Messiah returned
doesn't look like getting any easier.

AND NOR DOES READING HOW LIVERPOOL
ARE GOING TO PLAY!

Yes, Liverpool have been my scourge this week.
Firstly they find some way of losing at home to the
mighty Barnsley to break mug acca punter
followers' hearts, and then they decide to score a
late goal against Inter mid week to scupper my 0
and 1 goal winning margin bets - the BAR
STEWARDS!

It is this unpredictability which, I feel, may make
Liverpool a great lay to qualify for the next round of
the Champions League. I believe they're quoted at
1/5 and I'll be having some of that as they face Inter
on their patch! It's about time the "hard to read"
scousers made me some moolah and laying at 1/5 is
no great shakes liability wise. An Inter goal and
(hopefully this "to qualify" market in running)
would do very nicely thank you!

Add Spurs to the list, but this is a good example of
why you should be using the questions in January's
newsletter, especially the one about anything unique
about this game, and are there, or have there been,
any important games for the team.
Well the uniqueness of the match was that the
Spuds did NOT have to win. They only had to
ensure they DID NOT lose. Further, we had the
Carling Cup Final on Sunday, no doubt, playing on,
erm, player's minds.

Yes, this lack of foresight on my part broke yet
more mug punter acca followers' hearts.

I have a good mind to follow in the footsteps of the
guy who's suing William Hill. Well, I have started
proceeding against Bayern Munich (for the first
game against Aberdeen), Spurs, and Liverpool
(multiple cases with them). I have Kelly Brook
representing me which could swing the jury if it is
all male of course!


The Champions League matches have been very
interesting and these 1st legs can give you a betting
angle into the 2nd legs. This was the case yesterday
with the UEFA Cup matches. For instance the
tightness of the Panathinaikos v Rangers game in
the 1st leg had a good chance of being replicated in
the 2nd leg, and so it proved.

Elsewhere this week I've done a kind of audit on
the many systems I have tried to select those back
and lay systems that I can manage to trial myself.
They have largely been chosen for their ease of use
and quickness in formulating selections because
time is not my best friend! I have neglected a
number of lay systems because, to be honest, I don't
have the time, but will try to make inroads.

It was interesting, though, to note the similarity in
the basis of a lot of these systems.

I'll give you a couple of examples (not naming the
systems though)

There are a large number of lay systems which deal
with laying the 2nd and 3rd live market favourites  -a
great idea until you realise you have to follow the
live betting market.

Other lay systems seem to base their selection
strategy around the POSTDATA table. For the
uninitiated, take a look at a typical racing card at
www.racingpost.co.uk and you will see the
POSTDATA button. Clicking this will bring up a
table which shows a basic at a glance look at each
horse over a number of categories such as trainer's
form, ability to handle going, distance, course, draw
(where applicable), ability, and recent form.
The Postdata table also gives data on the official
rating, Topspeed rating and racing post rating, and
is a free and useful tool for both the backer and the
layer.

In fact the POSTDATA table is a key ingredient in
my 3 into 1 system.

BROOKES - He's not the Messiah, he's a very
naughty boy!

Yes I have received the latest tomes from the
Shakespeare of betting and was appalled to be
honest. The Betfair Manifesto (up the workers!) is
pretty much identical to System Ultra bar one or 2
negligible points  - this really is ripping people off.
The Exchange Code is not really workable because
for you to actually bet on any of the outcomes
shown within the ebook, you will have to take 2
weeks off work glued to the computer to wait for
the correct circumstances to allow you to bet.

Also be careful not to be taken in by the results that
they update you with on their emails. They are
highly selective, and missed a period where the
Betfair Manifesto (up the workers) produced a
series of losing runs up to 10! The results they did
show were from a day when the favourites at
Southwell happened to all come in.  Hats off to a
great marketer but a naughty boy!

NEWBIES

The Sir Racing System has come into my inbox this
week and is another favourites based system, along
the lines of the FFF Plan, Melchior, and
Computapik. Each of these systems are at the behest
of favourites' performance, and the Sir Racing
System purports to have cracked backing favourites
- it's very easy to implement and I can, I hope, do a
little back tracking to formulate an idea regarding
long term profitability. It is, I think, a system that
can be used without following the live betting
market so is of course of major interest

The AWESOME PRICE FINDER will be started
this week as long as I can find the correct tables (as
they mention the Daily Mail)

I am taking video shots of all Betfair prices for lay
systems such as gofibonnaci and, alas, something
has to give. I have to be uniform in the times that I
record and take as a fact that I will miss price
fluctuations which will make my selections
different from someone else's using the same
system but at a different time.

By 1st March I want to be able to upload some excel
spreadsheets with a variety of systems results onto
the website at www.whatreallywinsmoney.com
With the Fasttrack Plan spreadsheet providing some
superb graphical representations of systems'
performances, I hope this will enhance things. Also
the guys behind Kachina racing and mathematician
betting have allowed me to reproduce their days'
advices to the website AFTER the racing is over
(D'oh!) just so you can see yourself what's involved
with these advice sheets which are so difficult to
quantify.

MORE ROGUES

Another email came in this week with the usual
story regarding glossy brochure tipsters promising
the earth. I will recount it here regarding Daniel
Johnson Investments:

 "Hi Clive.  Have you ever heard of the above?
Would you please warn your readers about the
guy?  He promises the earth. In 2004 he made
£246,000, 2005 £389,000, 2006 £327,000 and 2007
£278,000. I really don't know how with what bets I
have had from him. You ring for bets and most of
the time its still a message from over a week ago
even though you ring on the date he tells you. Up to
now one horse has won that I know of.  I have
stopped ringing a few weeks ago. He promises a no
quibble guarantee and unconditional. I quote my
guarantee to you is no quibble and unconditional. If
at any time you are unhappy or not satisfied with
your profits I will return any membership fees you
have paid straight away. I wrote to him in January,
sent it recorded delivery, but have heard nothing
from him.  Cannot get him on his mobile either.  I
am wondering if there is anywhere I can report him.
It is obvious that he is taking the money and doing
nothing for it. PLEASE WARN YOUR MEMBERS
IF WE CAN MAKE LIFE VERY HARD FOR
HIM LETS DO SO. Thanks. "

This is typical of those who promise _ million
pounds profit in one year! They get numbers in, and
then have to provide some semblance of a service
(if they can be bothered of course!).

The alarm bells should have been ringing with the
claims of earnings and the offer safely filed away in
the bin. Since writing the newsletter, there has been
a long list of these types who come and go (usually
very quickly) after generating huge sums (for
themselves) from trusting customers.

The general rule of thumb regarding direct mail
tipsters is to forget these offers, and ask a few
questions like "if I was generating _ million a year,
would I want the hassle of a tipping service?"
Simply increase stakes by getting family members
to place bets for you, and use the betting exchanges!

Oftentimes, the greed monster clouds judgement. It
must be remembered too that this is an unregulated
industry so do your own regulating!

Another bumper weekend of sport to look forward
to with the 6 nations rugby, and Wales, priced at
1.16, look layable for me against an ever-improving
Italy side who may be able to bring home the 12.5
point handicap. At near evens, it is a decent enough
bet. Warning those that Rugby Union is not my
strong suit!

My concentration will be on selective horse bets
and the football. A usual, you can follow my
thoughts on the blog in a week of mourning for 3
downed mug punter accas.

I'm off to prepare my defence with Kelly Brook and
her briefs - have a great weekend!

Regards

Clive
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