Mathematician 009    Friday March 14th  1 Split Stake Account Bet  Cheltenham 4.40  TRAMANTANO    £25 WIN  20/1 +  ENLIGHTENMENT £25 WIN 10/1  ****************************** ******************************  TRAMANTANO  -25/1 with Ladbrokes Corals Hills   ENLIGHTENMENT  -10/1 with Ladbrokes -Tote -Stan J -Betfred -Betdirect  -Bet365   There was a Novice Chase on October 19th last year that fascinates me.  That race was won by TRAMANTANO and ENLIGHTENMENT came 3rd in the race.  I think this is a significant race and why I think we have a very good  chance of another big priced winner. I dont know whether Lightening can strike twice today after yesterday but I have to stake  my strongest bets to £50 today and they are a split stake bet on  TRAMANTANO and ENLIGHTENMENT and I really feel I have a serious chance of  getting this race right.  Todays Message has 5 Outright selections. To be honest I will take one  winner now as 4 of the 5 selections are 10/1 and over.  I want to  discuss 4 of them here in terms of looking for an account bet. My Trends  grabbed me by the neck and boxed me in a corner in the Coral Cup and  insisted I selected Leg Spinner. I was happy to make him the selection but I  was not prepared to take the risk on him as an account bet. I have  gone with Trafford Lad in the 1.05 race and saved on Forpadydeplasterer  but the markets been bothering me for two days in this race and I just  dont get the right vibes about the race. Therefore I want to stay with  the Last two races for my Most interesting selections. I feel these races  offer me my best chance of a big priced winner.  ROMAN VILLA is 25/1  for the County Hurdle. He is not a stats bet. I have been mopping up  some fancy prices about 25/1 and over for him and I think he may well be  an inspired choice today. He is a bet that carries far too much  guesswork and he is purely "Instinct" but I have to mention him and suggest you  have a small bet on him especially at his price. The Grand Annual  (4.40) is one of the best trends race at the Festival and I have spent a  lot of time on the race and I feel ENLIGHTENMENT or TRAMANTANO  will win  this . The favourite My Petra is a serious danger but I have a theory  about the overweight the jockey will put up that puts me off her and I can only see 3 or 4 horses having a chance in the  race.  Saturday Plans are up in the Air. There will be a message. It will  probably be a short one though after the workload at Cheltenham. I intend  to have a big Kip shortly and the Duchess is doing a nice tea and when  thats done I will start tomorrows cards and wont worry about a long  message. What comes tomorrow comes tomorrow I am afraid and I might just  try and nail one race like the Midlands Grand National. Dont expect a huge mail tomorrow .   ********************************************** **********************************************   Thursdays Summary  Fantastic day yesterday. OLD BENNY didn't put a foot wrong and won well  and landed the Account Bet at 14/1 backed into 9/1 and that was a  great start. That was the one race I knew I had a chance of a big priced winner in and had planned the bet  for wednesday and I am just Glad I went with the Account Bet.  TWIST  MAGIC was the dissapointment of the day for me as it cost me a Double Quadpot line and he ran a  stinker. I was out of luck with MIGHTY MATTERS - OSCAR PARK and the World  Hudle forecasts although I dont think I did much wrong there and that was nearly a nice pay out  for small stakes and that wasnt a bad effort. MOSSBANK each way cost  nothing really and whilst my 3rd choice won the Pertemps I left him off the bet which hurt but half  an hour later that feeling was soon forgotten as HIGH CHIMES won nicely  at 14/1 and that sealed a great day. The Bumper horse came 3rd but it  was each way and at least that didnt lose us any money despite a  statbuster winning the race. Overall it has to go down as a pretty special  day but it was OLD BENNY that mattered and he didnt let us down.  ********************************************** **********************************************   Todays Selections   Cheltenham 1.05 -  TRAFFORD LAD 10/1  - saver on FORPADYDEPLASTERER 5/1  Cheltenham 1.40 -  LEG SPINNER 7/1  Cheltenham 2.15 -  BEAU MICHAEL 10/1 each way  Cheltenham 4.40 -  ENLIGHTENMENT 10/1 Cheltenham 4.40 -  TRAMANTANO  25/1  Cheltenham 5.20 -  ROMAN VILLA 25/1   ********************************************** **********************************************  Q U A D P O T  Although one horse cost us 2 Quadpot lines yesterday which was very  annoying my misery was short lived as it paid only £17 so it did not feel  like we have missed out. Shuffling the card left the Quadpot in mainly championship races and thats why it paid so low.  Were still around £29  up on the two days and it would be nice if that could improved. Today  just 2 perms. The fact the Quadpot is again in Championship races and  not handicaps wont really help the dividends and that cant be helped. I think many are hard to oppose so just 2 perms today.  Cheltenham 1.40 -  LEG SPINNER - MENDO  Cheltenham 2.15 -  FRANCHOEK  Cheltenham 2.50 -  CARRUTHERS  Cheltenham 3.30 -  KAUTO STAR  2 perms  ********************************************** **********************************************  TODAY'S RACING  Going to take it easier today. There are a few races I have no hope of  getting decent angles on. The Opening race at 12.30 the DAVID NICHOLSON  MARES HURDLE  is one of these races. Never been run at the festival  before. There has not been a mares race in this class run anywhere before so there really are no avenues to go statistically. Over half  the field are outsiders at 28/1 and more and that has to be a big help.   Alan King will want to win this race with Theatre Girl but so will they  all and without any meaningful angles its a race I am going to leave  alone.  The ALBERT BARTLETT NOVICES' HURDLE  (2.50) is another race I intend to  swerve as there are not enough trends to be of help and few similar  races anywhere. Again half the field can beruled out you would have  thought looking at the betting. I think from the market leaders I would have to oppose the horses that step up from 2m 4f or shorter. Plenty of  outsiders do that but so to does LODGE LANE and that is reason enough  to oppose him in my view. You also have the bonus that he has less runs  this season than any other runner and an absence LODGE LANE would be the most obvious horse to oppose from the market leaders. None  of the few winners of this race came from under 20f to win this. If  you pushed me I would also take on the ones that come from Handicaps like  HILLS OF ARAN and THE TOTHER ONE but thats based on a stat thats  unproven. As for the winner I have no angles to help and feel its best to  leave the race rather than force a guess that you could just as easily  better yourselves.  The GOLD CUP is another race I want to watch and not over- preview.   The Big clash is now here.  DENMAN  and KAUTO STAR . Everyone has an  opinion.  I decided some time ago that I  would not let the decision be  made by my Head or my Heart. I would let the decision be made by the Stats for the race. Truth of the matter is every day I change my mind which  will win like many others will and it will come down to tactics and pace  and you cant really call it. As I said about a Month ago the  statistics - at least my interpretation of them seem to favour DENMAN.  To be  fair the decision was marginal but it just came down to the fact DENMAN  had the slightly better and more orthadox preparation and because KAUTO STAR has just microscopically moved out  of the ideal range of races that all recent Gold Cup winners have had.  Its a magnifying Glass job but the stats have to come down on one side  or the other and they come down on DENMAN's side. I just hope the race  is not an anti climax but sadly these things often are. I''m not having  a bet myself.  Just hope the race meets everybodys expectations.  ********************************************** **********************************************  CHELTENHAM 1:05  - BALLYMORE PROPERTIES NOVICES' HURDLE GRADE 1 (4yo+)  2m5f  9/2 Forpadydeplasterer,  Group Captain, 5/1 Aigle D´Or, 7/1  Fiveforthree, 8/1 Breedsbreeze,  Trafford Lad, 10/1 Venalmar, 20/1 Majestic  Concorde, 22/1 Whatuthink, 25/1 Hold Em,  Razor Royale, 33/1 Lightning  Strike, 66/1 Fond Of A Drop,  Raven´s Run, 250/1 King In Waiting,  Selection - TRAFFORD LAD  Saver -  FORPADYDEPLASTERER  * Formerly the Sun Alliance - a 2m 5f Novice Hurdle * The winner should have run over at least 18f last time out * Horses that race over 2 Mile trips have a particularly poor record * In the last 15 years 53 of these have tried to win and only 1 won * The First 4 horses in 2007 came from races over a distance of 21f   21f  18f  16f * The First 4 horses in 2006 came from races over a distance of 20f   24f  21f  18f * The First 4 horses in 2005 came from races over a distance of 21f   29f  24f  21f * The First 4 horses in 2004 came from races over a distance of 24f   21f  21f  25f * The First 4 horses in 2003 came from races over a distance of 18f   20f  21f  21f * The First 4 horses in 2002 came from races over a distance of 21f   20f  21f  24f * I really cant have GROUP CAPTAIN a flat bred horse coming from 17f * He has no Graded Form - the last 4 winners all came from Graded races * Nine of the last 10 winners had also ran in Graded Class before * I have looked at all 2m 5f Listed and Graded races between January  and April * There are 33 of these races - No english horse came from 18f or  shorter with under 4 runs * All 39 that tried failed and GROUP CAPTAIN fails that as well * FIVEFORTHREE has to come from a 2 Mile Maiden hurdle * Only 1 recent winner came from 2 miles and I see that as a big  problem * He also comes from a maiden hurdle and no past winners did that * Putting that in context horses that came from ordinary Novice races  did badly * Horses coming from a Class 4 or Class 5 Novice Hurdle have a 0-105  record * FIVEFORTHREE has ran in jusy one hurdle race and I hate his profile * BREEDSBREEZE comes from an extended 2 miles * Statistically thats horrible and more than reason enough to oppose  him * There are several others that have the huge problem of coming up from  2m * MAJESTIC CONCORDE fails that and looks held on form by others * Its quite important to have been 1st or second on your latest start * Only 1 horse failed to achieved that since the mid 1980's * RAZOR ROYALE and WHATUTHINK have failed to do that and both look held  on form * AIGLE DOR has a few Issues to overcome * Not least the fact he is a Flat bred horse and has ran just twice  before * No 5 year old has won this race in recent times with under 3 runs * I would prefer to have had at least 3 previous runs. * There has been lighter raced winners (2004.2002) but 19 of the  previous 22 had 3 + runs * AIGLE DOR may just be undercooked as a lightly raced 5yo * FOND OF A  DROP looks the wrong age - Raven´s Run -King In Waiting  look outclassed * HOLD EM looks to be held on form by AIGLE D'OR but has a chance * VENALMAR and TRAFFORD LAD are both statistically fine * They were 1st and 2nd last time out and I rate both as having chances * I prefer TRAFFORD LAD who had a penalty when losing to Venalmar in a  photo last time  CONCLUSION  Statistically  speaking the winner will come from one of these 3 horses  TRAFFORD LAD - VENALMAR - FORPADYDEPLASTERER - AIGLE D'OR  AIGLE D'OR has ran at 2m 5f last time and thats a massive "Plus". I  wont pretend he is statistically strong with just two runs as a 5 year old  but I have to be sensible and look at exactly what I object to him  about from a trends point of view. Yes he is Flat Bred but recent winners  have been and this is not a typical flat bred speed horse as he stayed  well on the Flat and he managed to win first time out over hurdles over  2m 4f. I am not bothered about that statistic. His 2 runs may be the  problem. Its fair to say that 19 of the last 22 winners had 3 or more  runs. You can argue that the 2004 winner had just 2 runs and the 2002  winner just one. I Make the point that No 5 year old in recent years had  under 3 starts and whilst thats true I am tempted to ignore that as  hardly any were fancied. I feel that the horses you have to oppose are the  lightly raced ones coming from 2 mile trips. The ones that have already  ran at similar trips like AIGLE D'OR have significantly better  chances. What I am trying to say is there are far better negatives in this  race than AIGLE DOR and whilst his inexperience stops me making him the  selection I feel he has still enough about him to shortlist him and I am  comfortable to make AIGLE DOR my "3rd choice".  FORPADYDEPLASTERER  has a strong profile. Many of his main rivals are  stepping up too far in trip or lack experience . He is experienced and  comes from Deloitte Hurdle which looks a far better preperation than the  likes of Fiveforthree and Breedsbreeze. Its interesting that on  Wednesday Ladbrokes pushed out the horse to 5/1 and clearly wanted to lay him  and they have been againsthim for a couple of days now.  I think They  took that view as the Deloitte Hurdle form was let down in the Supreme  Novice Hurdle as the horses that were 2nd and 3rd to FORPADYDEPLASTERER  both flopped in tuesdays opener. Quite how much importance we should  attach to that is debatable and I  have to include him on my shortlist  as he holds a significant statistical chance  TRAFFORD LAD and VENALMAR were 1st and second last time out in the same  race and it went to a Photo. TRAFFORD LAD went into the race with a  Grade 1 penalty but just failed to defy that and VENALMAR Clung on to  win.  I feel you have to accept that wherever one finishes the other wont  be far behind. Its a tough call to split these two Irish horses.  TRAFFORD LAD for me is the more likely winner. and must have a great chance  in this. He carried a tough penalty last time when failing in a photo to  beat Venalmar but I think he can reverse that form on level weights. I  also feel he was unlucky that day not to win. He is a massive horse  and I presume he will have been wound up to run to his best here. The  other reason I feel TRAFFORD LAD will beat him today is that just before  Christmass both horses ran and won. Whilst VENALMAR was busy winning a  Maiden Hurdle on his 6th start  TRAFFORD LAD was winning a Group 1 race  on his 3rd start. I just feel TRAFFORD LAD deserves to be considered as  having proven far more than his rival  TRAFFORD LAD and FORPADYDEPLASTERER have the best profiles for me. I  feel I have to bet them Both. One as a win bet and one as a saver.  It  was not an easy decision to make but I came down on the bigger priced  horse as better value  Selection - TRAFFORD LAD  Saver -  FORPADYDEPLASTERER  ********************************************** **********************************************  CHELTENHAM 1:40 - CORAL CUP (HANDICAP HURDLE) GRADE 3 (CLASS 1) (4yo+)   2m5f  5/1 Leg Spinner, 9/1 Song Of Songs, 10/1 County Zen,  Naiad Du  Misselot, 14/1 Kicks For Free, 16/1 Junior,  Pablo Du Charmil,  The Package,  20/1 Mendo,  Peacock,  Take Your Mark, 25/1 Astarador,  Clarnazar,   Laustra Bad,  Warne´s Way, 33/1 Orbit O´Gold,  Shazand, 40/1 Bedlam Boy,   Liberate,  Pyleigh Lady,  Sporazene,  Superior Wisdom, 50/1 Baltiman,   Chiaro,  Tagula Blue,  Whispered Promises, 66/1 Overstrand, 100/1 Hill  Forts Timmy.  * The Coral Cup is a competetive 2m5f Handicap * The trends ignoring 5 year olds - especially if English trained * I want to Nail the 5 year old issue once and for all * 5 year olds have traditionally been poor bets in the Coral Cup * They have a 1-66 record in recent years * That sole winner (2006) was the benefit of a strangely framed race  that year * Its interesting he did NOT come from a 2 mile race as well * LIBERATE - WARNES WAY - THE PACKAGE - COUNTRY ZEN are aged 5 * LAUSTRA BAD - JUNIOR - PEACOCK - SHAZAND are aged 5 * I think the issue with 5 year olds need further analysis * There has been 37 Handicaps between 2m 3f and 3 Miles in Listed and  Graded Class * Thats at ANY Time of year and on any track * I dont like 5 year olds that step up from 2 Mile trips * They have a poor 1-45 record * The only winner came at Aintree in April in a small field  (Ravenswood) * That was a Listed race and it was over 2m 4f and Ravenswood carried a  low weight * This is a Graded race and its over 2m 5f * You can extend that statistic and include all class 2 races * Several 5 year olds coming from 2 miles won but none in very large  fields of 20 + (0-31) * Horses aged 5 that come from 2 miles need to be opposed * COUNTRY ZEN is therefore opposed * LAUSTRA BAD - SHAZAND - THE PACKAGE also have that against them * Happy to take on the other 5 year olds that have other problems * WARNES WAY - LIBERATE have high weights and absences - they score  badly * I will forgive any 5 year old if a) Coming from 20f or more and b)  running within a Month * Therefore JUNIOR and PEACOCK are passed through as "acceptable 5 year  olds" * I would Ignore horses that had 21 or more National Hunt career starts  in England * They are generally either badly handicappd or too exposed and  vulnerable to improvers * HILL FORTS TIMMY - OVERSTRAND - SPORAZENE - TAKE YOUR MARK fail that * Ignore English horses with 1 race that season * No English horse has won this with just 1 run this season * KICKS FOR FREE - BEDLAM BOY - LAUSTRA BAD all fail that * PYLEIGH LADY is the only female runner in the race * I want a Male horse as  31 Female runners produced just 1 third place  in the last 15 years * English horses that came into this race with a 7 week absence have  never won the race * Look at similar Graded Hurdles and English runners with absences were  poor * LIBERATE - LAUSTRA BAD -NAIAD DU MISSELOT all fail that * There has been 37 Handicaps between 2m 3f and 3 Miles in Listed and  Graded Class * You can "possibly" forgive NAIAD DU MISSELOT as he is lightly raced * Those did it were lightly raced winning at 19f and Listed class not  21f and Graded * You must not have ran 7 or more times that season. * The winner of this is usually invariably laid out for the race. * Makes no sense to show the handicapper your hand by running so many  times in a season. * BALTIMAN -OVERSTRAND - PEACOCK - TAKE YOUR MARK fail that * It would be naïve to rule out runners with more than 11st in weight. * The closer you get to the top of the weights the less chance you have * Stay with 11st 3lbs or less unless Irish trained * WHISPERED PROMISES - KICKS FOR FREE - SPORAZENE -LIBERATE have tough  weights * I would be wary of betting Novice Hurdlers as well although 1 has won  (2000) * Overall they have a 1-52 record and the following horses fail that * BALTIMAN - JUNIOR - SONG OF SONGS - SUPERIOR WISDOM -THE PACKAGE * There has been 37 Handicaps between 2m 3f and 3 Miles in Listed and  Graded Class * Looked at Novice Hurdlers and how they got on * ALL winners had 5-12 starts - 3 +  that year and a run within 7 weeks  and under 11st * BALTIMAN -  THE PACKAGE - SUPERIOR WISDOM - JUNIOR - SONG OF SONGS  fail that * Be sceptical about horses that finished runner up last time out * Horses that were 2nd last time out had a 0-52  record in this race. * There are sound reasons why this trend has worked much as it sounds  gimmeky * WARNES WAY - JUNIOR - THE PACKAGE - TAKE YOUR MARK fail that * BALTIMAN - CHIARO - PEACOCK - PYLEIGH LADY also fail that * Course winners have a dreadful record and none have won since the  1980's * These winners have often been overrated by the Handicapper * CHIARO - MENDO - LAUSTRA BAD - SPORAZENE fail that * If I had to forgive one of these it would be MENDO as the rest fail  other trends * TAGULA BAY looks outclassed and isnt the ideal age * ORBIT O'GOLD - 1 run this year and 115 days absence bothers me * I would reject 7lbs claimers * ASTARADOR - LIBERATE - TAKE YOUR MARK - PYLEIGH LADY fail that * If I had to forgive one of these it would be ASTRADOR as the rest  fail other trends  SHORTLIST  * I am suggesting two shortlists at this stage * Shortlist A is for horses that are statistically perfect * Shortlist B is for horses that fail certain trends but "may" be  forgiveable  SHORTLIST A ( Statistically perfect)  LEG SPINNER 7/1 PABLO DU CHARMIL 28/1 CLARNAZAR 28/1   SHORTLIST B - (Not statistically perfect but possibly forgiveable)  KICKS FOR FREE - Weight and 1 race this year against him but the Class  horse NAIAD DU MISSELOT - Has a worrying absence to overcome JUNIOR - His age needs forgiving and he comes from a novice hurdle PEACOCK - His age needs forgiving and he Looks overraced this season ASTRADIR - Only his 7lbs claimer concerns me statistically MENDO -  Course winners dont score well   CONCLUSION  I have 3 statistically perfect horses. I dont want to select CLARNAZAR  who is a small horse and a bit inexperienced or PABLO DU CHARMIL who comes from a Chase (although that was done in  2002) and the race from a statistical point of view revolves around L E G  S P I N N E R.  I hate Tony Martin  horses. They are all overbet and none can be seen to be reliable. His festival runners so far have not ran that well and  many have been backed and I am not remotely saying that LEG SPINNER is  bomb proof in this race especially with a 5 months absence. What I will  say is that I can find no reason at all why LEG SPINNER can not win this  race and I can do that for every other runner.  I suppose you could  have a saver or a split stake bet. You could have one of my other  shortlisted runners. Despite being uncomfortable with the stable - and more  than aware that he could run poorly I am following my trends in the race.  They didnt let me down yesterday and they tell me that LEG SPINNER can  and should win the Coral Cup.  ********************************************** **********************************************  CHELTENHAM 2.15 - JCB TRIUMPH HURDLE GRADE 1 (CLASS 1) (4yo) 2m1f  13/8 Franchoek, 7/2 Celestial Halo, 8/1 Five Dream, 10/1 Beau Michael,   Silverhand, 12/1 Won In The Dark, 14/1 Serabad, 16/1 Personal Column,  20/1 Songe, 33/1 Callisto Moon,  Temlett, 50/1 Lemon Silk, 100/1  Special Day,  Star Of Angels, 200/1 Diego Velasquez.  * FRANCHOEK is the shortest priced Triumph favourite in decades * I categorise him as statistically strong but not value * I want to oppose horses with under 3 races * 17 of the last 18 winners had 3 or more starts * CELESTIAL HALO - SILVERHAND - SPECIAL DAY - SONG OF ANGELS fail that * English winners that had less than 3 previous races were 0-76 * I would be wary about any horse that had more than 6 previous races. * English Horses that had 7 + previous races had a 0-23 record. * CALLISTO MOON looks too exposed and has the wrong preparation * FIVE DREAM looks too exposed and French Breds dont score well * FIVE DREAM may also want softer ground and I dont want handicappers * LEMON SILK looks too exposed and has the wrong preparation * Horses that won their last race dominate. * The last 10 winners all won their last race * Every winner since 1993 except one Won last time out and he was 2nd * The following horses fail that * CELESTIAL HALO - FIVE DREAM - SILVERHAND - WON IN THE DARK -TEMPLETT * WON IN THE DARK was beaten a short head and should be excused that * Several outsiders also fail that * You want a horse that won at least twice over hurdles. * 12 of the last 13 winners had won twice that season * CELESTIAL HALO - SILVERHAND and others fail that * My only problem with SONGE is that he is  colt (2-118 record)  SHORTLIST  I dont have a statistical problem with these 5 horses  FRANCHOEK -BEAU MICHAEL -SERABAD -WON IN THE DARK -PERSONAL COLUMN  * Clearly FRANCHOEK sets the standard and will be very hard to pass * His short odds are my main objection especially with 5 shortlisted * You can also argue he has the longest absence in the race * You have a chance if you oppose him but he will be hard to beat * When FRANCHOEK won the Finesse Hurdle last time it raised a question  mark * Until Katchit (2007) won the Triumph last year that race had been a  bad trial * You can argue that Katchit last year broke that stat and rendered it  irrelevant * Alternately you can argue now Katchit is Champion Hurdler that it  should still stand * Technically only a Champion has come from that race and won * Its debatable but I am happy to take the favourite on because of his  short price anyway * My selection is BEAU MICHAEL each way who keeps winning * BEAU MICHAEL get it just ahead of Personal Column as he may outstay  him * Around 10/1 seems a fair price in an open and below par Triumph  hurdle  ********************************************** **********************************************  CHELTENHAM 4.05 - CHRISTIE'S FOXHUNTER CHASE CHALLENGE CUP (CLASS 2)  (5yo+)3m2f110y  9/2 Agus A Vic, 7/1 Lou Du Moulin Mas, 8/1 Bon Accord, 9/1 Drombeag,  10/1 Man From Highworth, 12/1 Lord Of Illusion,  Twenty Degrees, 14/1  Alert The Earth,  Christy Beamish,  French Thyne, 16/1 Climate Control,   Natiain,  Tribal Venture, 20/1 Amicelli,  Southwestern, 25/1 Cornish  Rebel,  Railway Ranger, 33/1 Arctic Times, 50/1 Mel In Blue, 66/1 Gallik  Dawn, 100/1 Beauchamp Oracle,  Dun An Doras,  Hip Pocket,  Tinarana  Lord.  * Foxhunters Chase and These have to be narrowed down statistically * Wouldnt have a clue without some strong trends * I want a Hunter Chaser thats won under rules thats been prepared  properly * The following 4 stats are an example of what I mean * Horses that came from a Handicap Chase are 0-25 in 15 years * 17 of the last 18 winners were brought up through Hunter Chases or  Points * All 19 horses that came from a Novice or Maiden Hunter Chase   lost * The following horses fail these stats * AMICELLI - DUN AN DORAS - FRENCH THYNE - SOUTHWESTERN - NATIAIN * 27 horses lined up having previously ran in a Grade 1 race. None won. * CORNISH REBEL - LORD OF ILLUSION fail that * No past winner came from 2m 4f or shorter * FRENCH THYNE -MAN FROM HIGHWORTH fail that * Horses aged 11 or more are just 2 winners from 110 runners and both  wins were shocks * Its a race that has more often than not gone to younger horses. * You can not rule out any age especially as the 13 year old Earthmover  won in 2004 * I still feel its worth opposing the older horses aged 11 and more  which takes out these - * ARCTIC TIMES -  BEAUCHAMP ORACLE -  CHRISTY BEAMISH - HIP POCKET * CLIMATE CONTROL - CORNISH REBEL - DUN AN DORAS - LORD OF ILLUSION * In a race like this I need the help of the market and am taking out  the massive priced ones * I am taking out the horses that wear headgear despite last years  winner doing that * No past winner had done and its a personal choice I would rather not  have headgear * LOU DU LOULIN MAS fails that and I dont much like his rushed  preparation either * So to does DROMBEAG last years winner who won a weak renewal for me * TWENTY DEGREES also wears headgear and I am against him * This is way out of my comfort zone. * Trends suggests I oppose horses that ran between a 31 Days and 4  Months ago. * The race has been dominated by  recent runs or those that have not  run in a long time. * This leads me to take on AGUS A VIC * TRIBAL VENTURE nearly made the shortlist  SHORTLIST  BON ACCORD - ALERT THE EARTH  I have no real idea in a race that is way out of my Comfort zone but I felt the above two horses had the strongest chance on paper.  ********************************************** **********************************************  CHELTENHAM 4.40 - JOHNNY HENDERSON GRAND ANNUAL CHASE CHALLENGE CUP  GRADE 3 2m110y  4/1 My Petra, 8/1 Andreas, 9/1 Crozan, 10/1 Enlightenment, 12/1  Gwanako,  Hasty Prince,  Maralan,  Tiger Cry, 14/1 Howle Hill,  Lord Henry,   Saintsaire, 16/1 Bambi De L´Orme,  Mister Quasimodo, 20/1 Greenhope,   Tramantano, 25/1 Vintage Treasure, 33/1 Magic Sky, 40/1 Almaydan, 50/1  Calatagan.  * The GRAND ANNUAL stats suggest lightly raced horses are best since  1997 * The last 9 winners had no more than 11 runs in all Chases * The last 9 winners had 7 - 1 - 0 - 3 - 0 - 4 - 0 - 0 - 5 Handicap  Chase runs * The last 9 winners had 4 - 4 - 6 - 7 - 4 - 7 - 3 - 6 - 7  Novice  Chase runs * 4 of the last 8 winners had Never ran in Handicap Chase before * Another one had only ran in one previous Handicap Chase. * I want to oppose the exposed horses * Exposed horses won just 1 of the last 9 renewals * Those that did win before that were lightweights and had recent runs * In terms of the "no more than 11 runs in chases" to the letter * I am ok with 12 or 13 chase starts but no more - a sensible approach  is needed * The following horses are rejected as being worryingly exposed and  opposable * They have all had 14 or more chase starts * ALMAYDAN -  ANDREAS - BAMBI DE L´ORME - CALATAGAN * MAGIC SKY  - SAINTSAIRE -  CROZAN * Horses that were 1-2-3-4 last time out are best unless falling * 33 of the last 37 winners placed last time out * Horses that were 1-2-3-4-5 on both their last 2 runs also dominate * Not a trend that can be followed literally but a good run last time  is ideal * The Finishing positions of the last 11 winners of this race are these * 3rd 5th 2nd Fell Won Won Won 3rd Won 4th 2nd. * ANDREAS - HOWLE HILL - CROZAN - GREENHOPE fail that * The race has been dominated by horses that carried 11st or less. * The last High Weighted winner was in 1998 when Edredon Blue won with  11st 6lbs * You have to go back 7 years for the last horse to PLACE with 11st  3lbs or more * LORD HENRY has a worrying weight with 11st 5lbs * ANDREAS - HOWLE HILL look to be opposable with high weights * ANDREAS and GREENHOPE have ran once this year and thats another  problem * The last 8 winners were aged 7 8 9 9 5 9 7 8 6 * There has been just 4 Horses aged 10 or more win since the 1940's * Only two horses aged 10 or more have placed in the last 9 years * Out go HASTY PRINCE - GREENHOPE -ALMAYDAN - TIGER CRY * The issue with HASTY PRINCE is interesting * He was second in this race last year * He is now a year older (age 10) and 5lbs higher in the weights * I wonder if thats just enough to secure his defeat and he is only a  small horse * TIGER CRY is also a 10 year old * Since 1991 Horses aged 10 or more that started under 25/1 had a 2-29  record * Thats not too bad but its what types they wore * No 10 year old came from 2 miles (0-30) or hurdles (0-4) or with 2  runs that season * There has been 35 handicap chases in Listed and Graded Class at 2  miles * Thats between January and April * Horses aged 10 had a Poor 2-94 record * When exposed with 13 + runs they had a 0-77 record * When coming from 2 miles (1-70)  and with under 6 runs that year  (1-66) they struggled * I know Uncle Ernie won this as a 12 year old (1997) but that race was  ran in a strange pace * I feel 10 year olds have to be viewed suspiciously and results at  other tracks support that * HASTY PRINCE and TIGER CRY are therefore opposed * All 27 horses that dropped from 2m 5f trips or longer were beaten * GREENHOPE - GWANAKO - HOWLE HILL - MISTER QUASIMODO fail that * GWANAKO is also apprentice ridden and all 29 apprentices lost in this  race * Between 3 and 5 runs that season is best * I would stay with runners that had less than 6 runs that year. * Since 1992 all 67 horses that ran 6 or more times that season lost. * TRAMANTANO - MAGIC SKY - MISTER QUASIMODO fail that * TRAMANTANO  can be forgiven for that having finished just 4 of his 7  runs * You really want a horse that ran within the last 48 days * All recent winners bar Fota Island in 2005 did so * If they are English Trained its more important to have run within 7  weeks * GREENHOPE - ENLIGHTENMENT fail that * Strongly consider horses with 0-5 Handicap Chase runs * Strongly consider horses with 3-7 previous races in Novice Chases * Since 1991 Every winner bar one had previously contested a Graded  race. * The only one that didnt spent most time Racing in France  SHORTLIST  ENLIGHTENMENT (SELECTION) TRAMANTANO (SELECTION)  MY PETRA -  Danger MARALAN - Danger   MARALAN with 11st 2lbs wont have an easy task with a Mark of 144 and I  feel I have to shortlist her but dont want to select her with the weight.  MY PETRA has to be  interesting but there are issues with her First of all I have to deal with the fact she is a 5 year old  Mare.  I cant. No 5 year old Mare has ever ran in a 2m Handicap chase in higher than class 3 before. On a  point of principle my hunch  is it shouldnt be a problem. My own demands for a 5 year old in this  race are simple. I am more than happy with them assuming that they have lightweights. What bothers me  more is the overweight that Mick Fitzgerald will put up. Go back 7 years . In 2000 Fitzgerald  he managed to win the Tote Gold Trophy on Landing Light but he put up overweight and could only do 10st  6lbs and that was 3lbs overweight.  I think that he is likely to do 10st 6lbs and that means  that MY PETRA will be racing with approximately 3lbs overweight so to bet her - and dont forget she is  the shortest priced horse in the race - then you must think she can win by 2 lengths or more as a rough guide  as 3lbs can make a lot of difference and it has to be a major concern. Incidently since Landing Light won  Mick Fitzgerald has lost on all 2 horses that were set to carry 10st 4lbs or less. That overweight is a  big problem for me.  I fancy ENLIGHTENMENT at 10/1. I am not worried about the 91 day  absence. Evan Williams won for us yesterday and has his string in form and he gets them fit. I love his  profile. He wouldnt want very soft ground but on good to soft or better he has a serious looking chance  and he was being considered for the Arkle on Tuesday. TRAMATANO has a great chance as well and was also  being talked out as an Arkle horse. Had injury problems but they were not serious and he came back  to win a Novice Chase at Cheltenham after 656 days. TRAMANTANO gave weight and a beating to Marodima - and  he has since won a Grade 2 Chase and is rated 148. Yet TRAMANTANO beat him easily and is it not  interesting that ENLIGHTENMENT was 3rd that day !! Spooky. I am prepared to forgive TRAMANTANO a few  modest runs since. He has slipped in this race off Bottomweight and no better trainer exists for  big race preparation than Twiston Davies - This horse has a massive chance.  ********************************************** **********************************************  CHELTENHAM 5.20 - VINCENT O'BRIEN COUNTY HANDICAP HURDLE GRADE 3 (CLASS  1) (5yo+) 2m1f  11/2 Psycho, 8/1 Mon Michel,  Wanango, 9/1 I´msingingtheblues,   Wingman, 14/1 Larkwing,  Missis Potts, 16/1 Robin Du Bois, 20/1 Freeloader,   Mohayer,  Pigeon Island,  Poquelin,  Roman Villa, 25/1 Caracciola,  Dark  Bolero,  French Saulaie,  Heathcote,  King´s Revenge,  Premier Dane,   Silver Jaro,  Victram, 33/1 Eagle´s Pass,  Mountain, 50/1 Bywell Beau,   Foreman,  Rio De Janeiro, 66/1 Romany Prince,  * The Finale a Handicap over 17f to end a Magnificent Festival * ROBIN DU BOIS has little chance after running over 3m yesterday * Over 100 horses have run since 1991 with less than 3 races that  season. None won * The last 16 winners had the following number of races that season  after September * 4 7 7 3 5 5 5 4 6 5 7 7 5 5 3 4 * ROMANY PRINCE - MOUNTAIN - FREELOADER - WANANGO fail that * I am against horses coming from Chases * There has been 102 Listed and Graded races under 19f at any time of  year * None of the 102 winners came via chases (0-79) and the following ae  rejected * WANANGO -  FOREMAN - BYWELL BEAU - FRENCH SAULAIE * None of the above mentioned 102 winners were as old as CARACCIOLA * I am ignoring Age stats anyway as all horses 9 and over easily fail  other stats * You want a Horse that ran within the last 56 days. * Only Sir Talbot (1999) won with a 98 day absence managed to win with  a Longer absence. * This is The Number of days the last 15 winners faced off the track  before winning * 34 13 36 32 33 33 13 98 17 44 3 28 16 29 21 52 * HEATHCOTE - DARK BOLERO - POQUELIN fail that * MON MICHEL fails that technically as he fell at the 1st last time out * Horses aged 5 have a good record under specific circumstances * Only bet 5 year olds that are Lightly raced with under 9 starts * Only bet 5 year olds that are Lightly weighted * Only bet 5 year olds that have ran at least 3 times that season * Only bet 5 year olds that came from a Handicap last time out * PIGEON ISLAND fails that and is rejected * SILVER JARO fails that and is rejected * KINGS REVENGE is too exposed as a 5yo to drop half a mile * All 49 horses that came from a Grade 1 or Grade 2 race Lost * DARK BOLERO - I´MSINGINGTHEBLUES - LARKWING - PIGEON ISLAND fail that * 14 of the last 15 winners ran in at least 2 handicaps before * I´MSINGINGTHEBLUES - LARKWING also fail that * Eagle´s Pass - Heathcote - Rio De Janeiro look outclassed * PREMIER DANE was 3rd last year at 100/1 * He has 20lbs more weight now and an apprentice rider - hard to fancy * Generally a 1-2-3-4 finish is desirable without being bomb proof. * ROMAN VILLA didnt managed that * Dont like the prep race VICTRAM has but he is ok otherwise * All 34 horses beaten in the Imperial Cup came out and lost in this  SHORTLIST  ROMAN VILLA  (selection 25/1) PSYCHO WINGMAN MISSIS POTTS MOHAYER  Think one of these will win.  ROMAN VILLA fails the stat that demands a 1-2-3-4 placing last time out  but I want to ignore that today. In the TOTE GOLD TROPHY I tipped both WINGMAN who  won and ROMAN VILLA who pulled up. At Newbury ROMAN VILLA smashed into the  first fence and that really hurt his chance and he never recovered. His trainer  said he that he ran badly that day as he "had an infection". That may or may not be true but If  you ignore that run and give the horse the benefit of the doubt then he has to have a  massive chance. I really fancied him in the Tote Gold Trophy - that is the best trial race fo  this - Had he ran his race that day and finished in the first 6 he would be half the price today.  He passes every other statistic I can throw at him and I feel that having not hard a hard  race at Newbury IF there was a genuine excuse for his last run he may well be an inspired value  choice to win this.  ********************************************** **********************************************  TOTESPORT CHELTENHAM GOLD CUP  STATISTICS  11/10 Kauto Star, 5/4 Denman, 12/1 Exotic Dancer, 16/1 Halcon  Genelardais, 25/1 Neptune Collonges, 33/1 Knowhere,  Star De Mohaison, 50/1  Afistfullofdollars, 66/1 Racing Demon, 100/1 Celestial Gold, 250/1 Iron  Man, 500/1 Azulejo,  Contraband,  Fustrien Du Paon,  * The Last 12 Gold Cup winners had between 6 and 14 Races over Fences * The last 11 Gold Cup winners ran in 10 11 12 9 6 10 13 12 7 10 11 11  Chases * Small Advantage to DENMAN (8 Runs) over KAUTO STAR (15 runs) * Experienced horses that have ran 21 + times have a 0-71 record. * What is clear is that you need an improving lightly raced horse * Horses aged between 7 and 9 have had the best recent record. * They have won 13 of the last 14 Cheltenham Gold Cups. * Horses aged 10 do not have a great record but the odd one has won. * Horses aged 10 have a 1-72 record since 1993 * Horses aged 11 and over have not won this race sincE 1969. * All 30 that ran in the last 15 years lost. * Every recent Gold Cup winner had between 2 and 5 runs that season. * I certainly wouldnt want a horse with fewer runs that season * Previous track form is a serious advantage in this race. * This advantage is increased if that horse had Festival form. * 8 of the last 10 winners had placed at a previous Cheltenham  Festival. * That may have been 9 from 10 had Kauto Star not fallen * Stay with horses that placed last time out if completing the course. * All past winners placed or fell last time out * Every Past winner of this race had won in one of their last 6 races. * Ideally a rating of around 166 will be needed to win this race * Horses coming from a Grade 1 or Grade 2 chase last time are best * The last winner that hadn't placed before in a Grade 1 or Grade 2  race was 1992 * A Novice hasnt won the Gold Cup since 1974 and can be ignored.  ********************************************** **********************************************     www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk