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17 MARCH BLOG AND 3 INTO 1

publication date: Mar 17, 2008
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Monday, 17 March 2008

17/3

Again we were at the behest of changes in the market for the dutch. 2 horses actually overtook Valentia Island and West Ridge into favouritism and ,if you are able, you must be personally reactive to these changes. As things stood at time of writing , the 2 named horses were favourites but at the off, the market was 10/3, 3/1 ,7/2 7/2 allowing for level stakes dutching on 2 of the 3, or even break even bets on the 2 7/2 horses.

A HTB selection in Misbehaviour won well at evens. Cava Bien was in a race priced up as a 2 horse race and came 2nd

I duly backed Rangers 1-0 down at half time but they didn't score til late making a 2nd goal difficult - at least I got enhanced odds - hindsight - back the draw! - that was the ebst tradeable option.

A messy Monday with heavy ground at Downroyal and Taunton.

A lot of short prices at Downroyal and I would rather be a layer than a backer in the heavy ground, especially over 3 mile events. Nothing concrete though. The 355 sees 2 grand national hopefuls battle out in what's been priced a 2 horse race but the ground stops me from getting involved.

A small field card in heavy ground at Taunton again leaves me wanting to sit this one out.

WOLVES
400
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Thebes, 4/1 Johnny Friendly, 6/1 Greystoke Prince, 12/1 Ambrix, Arcetri, 14/1 Liberty Ship, 16/1 Mahadee, Spinning Ridge, 20/1 Easy Wonder, Karmei, Redsensor, 25/1 Casino Night .

 
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A mark of 70 may well vastly underestimate what THEBES achieved at Southwell, albeit in a weak-looking affair, and he looks a typical Mark Johnston improver. Johnny Friendly and Greystoke Prince look the pick of the opposition.

My interest is taken by Thebes here - slight price gap although not of the quality of templated price gappers - the price gap is actually accentuated in the live market - 5/4 - - - - 6/1.
Form of 21 - top RPR - Postdata selection - query regarding distance having only run at 6 furlongs.
One to chance although each way backers can see that Johnny Freindly and Greystoke PRince are the main market rivals and if you think the upping in distance is a negative, either of these 2 each way should give a good run for your money.

3 INTO 1

No selections today. Cava Bien at the behest of the prices - 2 horses at 15/8 and 13/8 and guess who won! My analysis of the 3 into 1 shows the majority of level stakes profit comes from prices evens - 3/1. Will this hold true?

A ding dong 4-3 victory fro Nantes last time they met Gueugnon at their ground. 4/6 is reasonable enough for an away victory. Having drawn 2-2 at home last time, and with Le Havre winning convincingly on Friday, this is a must win for Nantes.

Newcastle face a really tricky game at defensively tight Birmingham tonight and again I cannot see how they will win.

Past head to heads are useless at this time. Birmingham posted a 4-1 victory over hungover Spurs - this result looks anomolous, and drew 2-2 with Arsenal ( but is this a reflection of Arsenal's decline or an improvement in Birmingham.

Both sides need the points. King Kev the Messiah etc etc etc needs a victory. I will chance under 2.5 goals here from a trading perspective. Birmingham have been resolute defensively. Newcastle can hold on in first halves and I'm hoping it remains goalless for the first 20 minutes or so.
It's not a cut and dried game this one for me

 

I am not positive about any selections today and may sit this day out

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