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The Gran's National Betting Coup Revealed
publication date: Apr 9, 2008
Hi,
Yes it's that time of year when my Gran forgets about dishy Des on Countdown, or if she were in Ireland, the delightful Daniel O'Donnell with his lovely sweaters, and focuses her mind solely on walloping the bookies in the Grand National. The bookies are fairly shaking in their collective boots. Underhand tactics are afoot amongst the big boys to find out just who my Gran will pick in the National. Will the bookies be able to take the weight of My Gran's £2 wager? Stories abound in Guernsey of Victor Chandler trying to gain entry to my Gran's House by posing as a newspaper boy. Stan James and William Hill have been caught red handed dressed as women from meals on wheels in the hope of catching a whisper of my Gran's selection. Even Paddy Power visited her Guernsey home pretending to be a pal of mine from Ireland. They're shaking, I tells yer - shaking! The bookies will never find my Gran's secret because she only selects it on the day of the National, 5 minutes before the off, using the Daily Mail and a pen she closes her eyes and stabs at the page, and voila, a selection is made! Yes, folks, it's that time of year when all common sense is thrown out the window and the nation bets on a 4 mile 4 furlong one off huge obstacled handicap with a million or so runners ! If you like these types of races, I would have pointed you in the direction of a 25 runner conditional jockeys handicap hurdle ( class 5) at Wincanton mid week.! It's simply a no bet race for me (boo hiss I hear you scream!). I don't know about you but I want a return from my betting ( said the bloke who dutched all correct scores bar the 2-1 to Fenerbahche on Wednesday!) The supporting card to the Grand National is simply sublime - Thursday saw Inglis Drever, Celestial Halo, Binocular, Kauto Star, Franchoek - mouth watering stuff , and today sees more of the same! Of course my tuppence worth is available on the blog. For those of you who want an interest in the National, I refer you to the stats in last week's eletter and will reveal them here again. *** AGE *** No horse aged under 8 has won the big one in the last 67 years. There's no reason to believe that statistic is set to crack. Stamina is crucial in the Grand National run over 4 miles and 4 furlongs. Younger horses - replete with more speed than stamina - tend to struggle. Last year there wasn't even a finisher under 8 years of age. Older horses, aged 13 or 14, are inevitably past their best. No horse older than 12 has won the Grand National in the last 84 years. The numbers strongly suggest the winner will be aged 8-12. *** WEIGHT *** The National is a long and tough staying handicap. Too much weight beats National horses. Since the war there have been only five instances of horses winning the National carrying more than 11st 5Ibs. Two of those sterling efforts were produced by National specialist, Red Rum. Last year only one horse carrying 11st 5Ibs or more actually finished the race. Using that weight as our cutting off point we can confidently dismiss the chances of 12 horses set to carry that kind of burden by the handicapper this year. These stats come from Nick Pullein's Horse racing Focus - a free email resource from http://www.horseracingfocus.co on having a bet, try http://www.thenational.co.uk where the old "experts" on TV who ,frankly, couldn't tip a waiter, give us their pearls of wisdom!. Another free resource from the Racing Post. I have actually selected the winner in the National before, Hedgehunter only because I laid him the year before when he unseated at the last ( thank God!) but that run certainly stuck in my mind and the horse posted a win, a 2nd and a 9th place since then. I love the horse and will be cheering on this obvious course and distance proofed animal but there's far easier ways to make money for me! *** ONE THING YOU WON'T BE MAKING ANY MONEY FROM FOR CERTAIN.... *** Is the Blood stock Agents scam that is still doing the rounds. So rife is it now that the Racing Post has caught on to it. I recounted it last week in the eletter - risk free money MY ARSE (as Jim Royle, close showbiz pal of mine, would comment!) Avoid like the plague - one guy lost a whopping £15K!. These letters do the rounds under different company names (some stolen from legitimate organisations) but the letter is exact each time - do look at last week's eletter. Here's an extract from said eletter: "Dear Sir, We are highly respected as consultants on ALL financial markets whether it be commodities, shares or betting. You may not be aware that "the jockey Club" restricts racehorse trainers and owners from backing and laying their own horses, as are directors forbidden to trade in their own shares without informing the Financial services Authority" It goes on to mention they have 50 horses throughout the UK and are privy to certain info. They will be happy to pay you a regular income if you'll assist them with THEIR money to profit from their "privileged position"" So any letter you see starting with that line must be binned PRONTO! *** THE BROOKES DREAM FACTORY *** Thanks must go to a reader who sent me a pdf this week, which listed the myriad ebooks written by Stephen Shakespeare, sorry Brookes, and his affiliate group. The list is recounted below for you:- http://www.f1tradersystem.com http://www.layingcalculator http://www.betfairsecret.com http://www.racingsystemrevolut http://www.systemblackbox.com/ http://www.laymaestro.com/ http://www.xgamestrader.com/ http://www.layingimpact.com/ http://www.racingselector.com http://www.bettingtothebank http://www.exchangegamesecrets http://www.exchangeblueprint http://www.theexchangeblueprin http://www.racingmembersclub http://www.layingcreator.com/ http://www.supremetradingsyste http://www.racinginvestmentsfo http://www.racingvoodoosystem http://www.layingconfidential http://www.layconfidential.com http://www.lay- confidential.com http://www.layingimpactx.com http://www.laystorm.com http://www.easytraderpro.com http://www.racingunlocked.com http://www.freebettingmethod http://www.laygenius.com http://www.layrevolution.com http://www.exchangecodeproject http://www.xchangecode.com http://www.bettingmanifesto http://www.bfmanifesto.com http://www.thebettingwizard http://www.bettingwizzard.com/ http://www.bettingprodigy.com http://www.projectbetax.com http://www.projectbetasystem http://www.systemultra.com http://www.systemultrax.com http://www.footballmiracle.com http://www.losingfavouritesyst http://www.footballmaestrosyst http://www.racingvoodoo.com Each one in their turn is inevitably the answer to all our prayers and a number of the ebooks are simple variations on the same theme, subtely changed and repackaged using the same cloned websites and £37 price tag! It does make taking seriously any new releases from these people very difficult doesn't it! I won't say anymore because I haven't got a swear jar big enough! *** ONE THING YOU COULD BE MAKING MONEY FROM..... *** Is sports spread betting -when used sparingly. Why? Well how would you fancy returning the equivalent of 5/1 or bigger on an odds on shot (sometimes 14/1 and bigger !). It is entirely possible thanks to LEVERAGE, BUT it is this very leverage that is the big negative point regarding sports spread betting. Here's a quick, and by no means comprehensive, introduction to Horse Racing Spread Betting. THE 50 INDEX This is the market I like. Points are awarded for 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th in the ratio of 50points, 30 points, 20 points and 10 points. A horse, for example is given a "spread" of, say, SELL 27 BUY 30. What does this mean? Well it means that the market maker (and remember we're betting against his opinion - and that's all it is - opinion!) is telling us he expects the horse to finish 2nd (30 =30 points =2nd place) Now if you think this horse will win, you will BUY at 30. If the horse wins you get what? Yes you get 50 points for first place -30 at which you bought it = 20 times your stake profit. If the horse comes 2nd you break even. If the horse comes 3rd you lose 10 times your stake ( the difference between the 30 at which you bought and the 20 points you get for 3rd place) Can you see immediately you have a potential 20/1 bet here on a horse priced 5/4 in the betting market! - (This was the actual spread of Desiderio on Thursday evening at Kempton and he won, winning you a £20 profit for a £1 stake). BUT remember the downside. If the horse came 4th you would lose your stake multiplied by 20 (you bought at 30 but you only earned 10 points for 4th place) That is why I would only use horse spread betting on for example, Curlin, the world's finest dirt horse, Denman and horses of that ilk. I actually made 8 times my stake on Curlin winning when he was a 1 / 4 shot to win the world's richest race in Dubai! So this is something to bear in mind certainly to be used sparingly to really enhance potential returns. If used with patience and discipline to wait for rock solid looking propositions (remember there is no such thing as a sure thing EVER!) you can greatly enhance returns above those of the bookmaker BUT you could also lose big if not careful! So why Desiderio? Well this horse was backed in from 2/1 into 5/4 before the off AND NEVER DRIFTED. I thought he would come in the first 3 at If he wins, I win £20, if 2nd I break even, if 3rd I lose a tenner, if 4th I lose £20, if 5th I phone the Samaritans! *** SPREADBETTING FEVER! *** Yes ,while looking at Ig Index's sport spread betting I have also cast a beady eye over the forex markets and seem to have found a pattern that can really sky rocket profits. It uses the connection between the 200 day, 55 day and 34 day moving averages and is something I'll recount in the next newsletter. The methodology is a little complicated as it requires a working knowledge of support and resistance but I'll pass on my pearls of wisdom and hope it is of benefit to you. This pattern has shown itself time and time again and looks to be a real confirmer of trends , and in financials "the trend is your friend(and so is Kelly Brook if you're lucky enough)" .It bagged me a 54 point move yesterday which was very satisfying but you need the patience of a saint as this move took 2 days to develop ( and incidentally if I had moved my stop loss further away it would be 100+ points!) *** THEY ARE BY FAR......... *** My thanks must go to the mighty Droylsden who got the draw for layers of Exeter ( I put it up as a lay at 1.27 on the blog) - they are BY FAR the greatest team the world (well Droylsden at least) has ever seen! Laying very low odds team in Blue Square Premiership and the like can be a happy hunting ground especially when it'll cost you £2.70 to win £10! So sit back this weekend - get your copy of the Daily Mail and make this Grand National as good as My Grans National -oh and don't forget the FA Cup semi final and the Arse taking on the Reds (again!) . Have a great weekend ( and by and large the blog has been providing more winners than losers so do use it - all the strategies I use are the exact betting blueprints I recount in the newsletter - it's free and it's for you (and,erm ,me because I back all selections!) Have a great weekend! Clive |
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