Hi
My house move completed this week, just 20
minutes from Killarney and a nice peaceful place to
live - just me and my copies of The Racing Post.
The roads actually speak back to you! The road near
my place has the word "SLOW" painted on it, and a
little further down the road, the word "SLOWER" is
painted. How did that road know I didn't really
slow enough after the first "SLOW" in the road?
Clever eh!
I'm waiting for the transport authority to paint other
signs in the road such as "Hey, nice car. You're
looking good today" and a bit further on the words "
No, I really mean that!" It will make the whole
driving experience, well, that much nicer!
Away from the intelligent roads, Euro 2008 has
taken off this week, with favourites going in left,
right and centre. Under 2.5 goal backers had a field
day in the first few matches, and I nabbed a nice 9/1
return on 2-0 half time in Spain's first game.
My swear jar was overflowing yesterday after Jens
Lehmann, the goalkeeping giant, decided to revert
to type and scupper a draw no bet I had. Where's
Oliver "Chaka" Khan when you need him? Not to
worry, I carry a nice 16/1 bet on Croatia to win the
tournament. I thought this was highly unlikely after
the first game, but confidence is restored!
I've been trying out a half time score dutch with
reasonable success in the matches - backing 0-0, 1-
0, and 0-1 with level stakes. Slight losses on 0-0 but
a nice enough payout on the 1-0s.
I thought this week I'd found another Betfair
loophole. Half time /full time Team x/Team x, I
thought was the same as Team X to win both
halves, but it occurred to me that for the Half-
time/Full time bet to come in, Team X only have
score the winning goal in the first half to no reply in
the 2nd half.
D'oh! Back to the drawing board.
Newsletter week this week so I'm checking through
the systems, updating the spreadsheets, and Racing
Unlocked backing evens and over still performs
admirably, thanks largely to a 6/1 winner. The bank
has now doubled using small stakes staking (eg
largest stake £100 to £1000 bank - highly
conservative indeed. Employing glossy brochure
boys £100 a point and results begin to look very
exciting !)
The Director's staking plan on Fasttrackplans has
really catapulted the returns from £1,000 nominal
bank to a whopping £2,358 with a generally upward
graph. This is an aggressive loss retrieval plan, but
the consistency of the upward graph means it is
worth monitoring.
I'm in the process of seeing how the odds on shot
lays have performed this month gone and remain
positive that laying these odds on shots is a good
move long term given the low liability. I noted a
couple of 1/3 shots losing which does wonders for
returns so will hope for a positive return this month.
Plenty of systems to work through to, including
Refuse to Lose, Cambridge Target, Cash Generator,
and a couple of new ones sent to me this week,
including a new take on the old Stop -at-a-winner
principle, employing once again loss retrieval but
with a strict stop loss in place. Is this the answer to
loss retrieval success I wonder? It's called the
Favourites Phenomenon System or FP system and
boasts a 98% strike rate - yeh right and next you'll
be telling me Jens Lehmann is a good goalkeeper! I
have been in contact with the system seller and he
has sent me the manual so I must investigate this!
It's always good at this time of the month once
systems are input into fasttrackplans as we begin to
see the good performers and those which can,
perhaps, be shelved. The systems of my own
making I like to refer to as investment plans, on a
par with managed funds, as we won't get explosive
growth, but the graph will tend to move in an
upward direction and OUTPERFORM these fund
managers, whilst still, in many cases, keeping stakes
risked down to small percentages of the bank. I
can't wait to see how each system has performed
over a year.
More to follow in the newsletter of course!
I still keep receiving emails from James Jary about
his laying system, and was interested to note he
only selects one horse a day to lay. Now can this not
be modelled? How difficult is it to select just one
horse a day to lose out of all the myriad possibilities
both in Ireland and the UK (we can also select from
other sporting events of course!)
I was reminded of this by a race I saw the other day.
Here's Spotlight
"SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A seriously
competitive staying event for the grade and one that
should suit the stayers with a strong pace seemingly
assured. ELLA looks another progressive
handicapper for Alan Swinbank to go to war with
and, although she did it from the front at Pontefract,
there's a good chance she'll have a chance to settle
better here with so much pace on up front. The
admirable La Vecchia Scuola shouldn't be far away
once again."
Now the words "seriously competitive" should leap
out of the page at you as a layer. La Vecchia Scuola
was the jolly at about 13/8 and came 3rd. This ain't
rocket science, right? You don't even need to know
about horse racing . You just need to ability to read
and take a chance that the race will be as "seriously
competitive" as the experts say it will.
This is something I will try out on the blog and see
if I can get the one a day lay out of the many
opportunities that arise per day. I tried this with
outsiders recently and was amazed at the winners
popping in and placed horses at huge odds. This is
something I'll try and resurrect - picking obvious
outsiders as lays BUT backing them each way. It
only takes a small strike rate to induce a healthy
return and we have the fact that shocks do occur on
our side!
I doubt I'll see the light of day now with all the
newsletter work I have to do, so it'll be goodbye to
Guinness for a few days. With all the money
collected in my swear jar after Jens Lehmann's
attempt at goalkeeping, I think I'll pop out and treat
myself to a fondant fancy!
Have a great weekend!
Clive
PS: Look out for a special email from me tomorrow
concerning the benefits of ante post betting and how
you could bag odds of of 5/1 when it should be
Evens... 10/1 when it should be 3/1... or even 33/1
when it should be 7/1...
.gif)
