Hi,
It was great to see the Irish Combos I talked about in the
last newsletter come good this week.
Saturday and Sunday saw a 12/1 winner for Pat
Smullen, and Frozen Fire, the standout winner in the
Irish Derby at the Curragh at 16/1. There was also a
winner a couple of days ago at 10/1 SP.
Now this horse was available on Betfair at 19 (18/1) -
this is a huge difference and is why, if you do get
involved in the less popular (and hence less liquid) Irish
Horse racing market, you must use Betfair.
Why?
Well, a lack of general knowledge amongst UK punters
will see inflated odds on perceived outsiders. The lack of
liquidity relative to UK Horse racing will see inflated odds
as market forces are not as prevalent as they are in the
UK Racing.
Can you imagine over a season how this nearly doubling
in odds can help your profit/loss?!
Imagine if you will what price Hindu Kush ( another
Aiden O'Brien runner) had been on Betfair when he won
at 25/1 SP? Nearly 40/1!
Another jockey / trainer combination which has proved a
revelation over here in Ireland has been Wayne Lordan
and David Wachman, with particular focus on the jockey
alone. He is still young and will merit my consideration
next season for inclusion in my Irish Combos I think.
He's been going past the post more times than a Luca
Toni effort on goal!
HOW THIS ODDS COMPILER COULD HAND YOU A
33/1 WINNER!
If you missed my email about 'Mr X', here's your chance
to catch up
He could regularly hand you bets at odds of 5/1 when it
should be Evens... 10/1 when it should be 3/1... or even
33/1 when it should be 7/1...
Probably the greatest source of ante-post betting is 'Mr
X's service 'The Insider'.
(No, that's not his real name. And don't worry, it's not a
alias for out friend Steven eBrookes!)
I've been a huge fan of this service for many years and I
can thoroughly recommend you take a look. Just click
here:
BREAKING NEWS: ALL IS WELL WITH MASTER
BROOKES!
Yes after my heart felt plea in last week's eletter it would
seem that Master Brookes is well and is doing what he
does best - writing ebooks! The exchange code theory
is his latest effort (at least I think it is the same Brookes
- it's all so confusing). Alas, I will not be availing myself
of this literary masterpiece ( I'm washing my hair) but
anyone who has read it, please get in touch with me and
give me your thoughts that I can pass them on.
Previous efforts regarding Betfair Games from the
Shakespeare of Sports Betting Manuals have NOT
provided the advertised profits so why should I suddenly
think that things will improve in the future?
At least he's well - that's all that matters. My get well
card must have really boosted him.
JUMPERS FOR GOALPOSTS - ENDURING IMAGE
ISN'T IT?!
As my close Showbiz pal Ron Manager would say!
Yes the football season will be upon us sooner than we
think, and now is an opportune time to avail yourself of
some strategies you will use in this forthcoming season.
Pointers include learning any patterns from last season
(Chelsea 0-0 halftime 1-0 fulltime! - Celtic late goal
scorers - new arrivals in the premiership to be whipping
boys ( or at least ONE team) , enhanced bets, trading
and many more options.
I will make a concerted effort this coming season to
capture my trades in a format that makes them
shareable and viewable to you. There are a number of
systems which I can do a season wide test on. Simplex
actually DID work last season - what chance this season
- we shall wait and see!
Noticeable patterns this week from a horse racing
perspective? Place only betting can afford us a good
opportunity to profit as we only have to chose a horse to
place only, and one area of focus for the backer could be
in maiden races where a favourite has been placed
consistently in its last 2-3 starts of this season and
remains at the head of the betting market. This is
something I have noticed this week, and will follow up
on.
Also, on the blog, I've been trying to select short priced
horses to lose. Techniques have included logic (big field,
2 year olds, sprint distance, only ran once, worst draw
etc) and betting forecast (prices indicate competitive
race) and race type (selling stakes, claimers, handicaps
) and I have been happy so far. Remember laying odds
on needs a 50% strike rate to profit because we are
effectively backing ODDS AGAINST with each bet.
The value of the blog is that I can keep a record of what
I've chosen in the past and show "templated" examples
in the future.
FOLLOW THE MONEY
Each system I'm testing is ticking along nicely:
Cambridge I don't like from a practical perspective.
Golden Star is simple and has been effective albeit in
this limited time frame.
Money Talks has been ok but the emphasis on place
only betting means we will require patience.
Trading Secrets Plan has been consistent through the
last month and this month gone, although there have
been some inconsistencies between some of my entries
and those posted on the website although luckily I do
concur with the vast majority. I hope the consistency
can continue.
Further testing this month! It will also be interesting to
see if Nigel's betting forecast/live market contrasting
system stands the test. I have my Racing Posts, and
have noted live market prices against betting forecast
prices in the Racing Post to try to determine a pattern.
Nigel advises to look for same priced horses in the
betting forecast in the Racing Post and in the live
market. I'll keep you informed
COINCIDENCE BETS
Not forgotten I assure you. I'm getting the old grey
matter to work to try to get what I have in a shareable
format so you ( at least those who have expressed an
interest) can see first hand how this betting works and
perhaps make the breakthough - the synergy of the
group!
The ideal of course is for everything to be viewable
online and is something I really want to make work.
Steve Braxton, the brains behind the idea, enthuses
about this!
GAWD HELP ME - I'M GOING ON A DATE!
I am off to Dublin this weekend. I joined one of those
dating websites because it was free, and forgot to cancel
after the free period - d'oh and for the craic (I must have
been on crack to have joined in the first place)- well one
lady has decided that I want to see Michael Flatliner's
Riverdance, when the fecking Munster Final between
Cork and Kerry is on. I could not decline her alas, but did
have a raft of excuses to hand:
" I have been chosen as the First Irish astronaut and
training begins this week"
" My car has 4 flat tyres and the doors fell off so I can't
make it"
" I am the new retained top jockey at Ballydoyle and
Johnny Murtagh will be going to Riverdance with you
instead"
"Trappatoni has noticed my mother is Irish and invited
me off to train with the irish team in Portugal - this
weekend! - Damn!"
But they wouldn't wash.
So it's a wonderful god knows how many hours drive to
meet someone I have never spoken to, to watch
something I've already seen, and in the process miss
Kerry and Cork on Sunday, where many in these parts
will be roaring on the Gooch etc.
So wish me luck!
Have a great weekend,
Clive
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