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At last, the rain stops!

publication date: Jul 29, 2008
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Hi,
 
As you can tell, from the subject line, I am now in
Guernsey for a short break, and, having lived in
Ireland for a while now, I am puzzled by this yellow
spherical object I see in the sky back here in
Guernsey. Haven't seen that in months!
 
Just to remind me of Ireland, I have trained the
nieces and nephews to empty a watering can on my
head slowly whenever I step outdoors to replicate a
rain shower. (They are more than willing to do this of
course in between playing out the last Harry Potter
book in the back garden and calling me a "bum bum
head!")
 
Well since the move to Ireland, I have met Billy
"feck off" Connolly, walked by Father Dougal
Maguire from Father Ted at Kilkenny Comedy
festival , and gone to see Riverdance with a nice
Mongolian lady living in Dublin - and these are
things I would never have done had I lived in
Guernsey ( oh and Ireland has a Tescos - every little
helps!)
 
So all's well in the world!
 
HANDICAP TRADING SECRETS
 
I've been trying especially to keep tabs on this
system over the weeks as it is, for me, a standout
from the follow the money /live market genre and
another circa 20 point profit last week continues the
good run.
 
There are, I will admit, a couple of areas where my
results differ from those on the website
thetradingplan.co.uk but I think this is just Martin
Blakey's method of keeping results - he's certainly
no fly by night or scamster. For instance, ( and those
familiar with the 16/1 system will know what I'm
talking about here) I would place greater emphasis on
a qualifying horse whose' odds in the betting forecast
are 14/1 and it has dropped to 7/1 in the live market,
than a horse whose odds are 6/1 and it has dropped to
3/1 in the live market. I suppose that's just my
personal opinion.
 
[For a refresher on 16/1 go to
 
Further there was a very interesting group 1 handicap
recently, where the favourite (well the betting
forecast favourite) was quoted at 4/1 and became a
non runner. Usually a horse at this short a price (4/1
equaling 25% of the book) would have a great impact
on the use of a follow the money based system but in
this case I only noticed 3 horses whose odds differed
markedly - 2 of those horses came 1st at 7/1 and 2nd
at 12/1!
 
Coincidence? I don't know but again personal
judgment rather than a strict interpretation of the
rules was the key for me there.
 
BLOG
 
Apologies if the blog has been intermittent of late -
some days I have taken all day to just get online and
my frustration has been growing signaling a move to
civilization where broadband actually exists (ie a big
Irish City rather than the countryside)
 
Any blog I write in the next 8 days will be
determined by my access to the internet but I want to
try my best as I want to keep practicing and honing
my skills with odds on laying. It has been a good
exercise, and with the blog to help I have been able
to keep records giving me the ability to look back
and see those races better suited to finding ones on
shots ridden by Fats Domino putting up a bit of
overweight!
 
You can visit the blog here:
 
As I mentioned last week, the football season is upon
us, and I have systems, strategies, software covering
the whole range of bet types available (and testers for
a couple of these are more than welcome). With a
full season ahead comes the ability to track strategies
for the whole period and test their practicalities or
otherwise.
 
If you have a strategy of your own , or if you select
teams weekly, then why not do a Google and look at
the football tipsters on the market - at the very least
this will enable you to look at ,and model, different
staking plans and you may find one which suits.
 
An example - take a look at football-bets.co.uk. He
uses what I call "confidence staking" - that is , he
looks to place a proportionately higher stake on
stronger bets. The downside? - well these obviously
should oblige as more is being staked but as was the
case with this service last year there were occasions
where these more confident bets lost and the losses
impacted what would have been a more impressive
profit (and he did make a profit season wide last year
so fair dos)
 
It's a good and free exercise to get an idea regarding
money management and footy bets .Of course ,
though, what's good for one selection strategy may
not be suitable for the layers amongst you, or the
traders amongst you, or the fixed odds coupon users .
Another staking plan can be found in the Racing Post
once it begins its football coverage. This is a very
conservative staking plan and is another example of
"confidence staking" and is - yes you guessed it -
free and may inspire you
 
With the latter in mind, I will be dusting off Merlin
to use regularly ( no I haven't been playing with the
nieces and nephews too much - Merlin is an
invention of Donald Hunting's - info at
me when I first set eyes on it.
 
As with all software (well spreadsheet in this
instance) of this ilk ie soccer magic matrix , football
betting systems, its profitability is down to personal
strength of selections and opinion. This is the same
with football trading which differs greatly from horse
racing trading in that we first have to decide
personally how we see a match unfolding and then
react accordingly. With horses weight of money is
king rather than opinion (although opinion can also
be used)
 
Well I'm off now to the enchanted forest (well it's a
bush at the end of the garden) to be tied up and
assaulted by the goblins (my nieces and nephews)
while being called a "bumbum head" - Happy days!
 
Until next time,
 
Clive
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