Hi,
So will the Rose of Tralee come round mine for tea?
This is the question a nation is asking this weekend as the
Tralee Festival is on for the next few days. It's only up the
road and may be worth a visit (with my tourist head on).
BUT we have the Premiership week 2, as well as Cork v
Kerry on Sunday in the Semi Final of the All Ireland. Oh
and I've run out of tea bags for The Rose of Tralee if she
does come over - I do have diet coffee for her though.
BLOG TASTIC
100% strike rate for the price gappers (predominantly
place only) this week which I'm keen to continue. It also
includes a few price gappers I deem to be lays which have
been successful too. Analysis seems to be a good thing
with these price gappers rather than just taking the price
gap and hoping for the best.
Now will a mathematical formula type of staking plan
work? This is accumulator betting and predetermines, of
course, a 100% strike rate. Not a possibility over a long
period - surely? Prices, of course, have been very short,
but if I can continue this disciplined selection then the bank
can gradually increase incrementally.
I've been enjoying writing this footy blog. Hopefully it will
prove useful (with hindsight) in determining systems really
work:
Well, laying the draw worked well in the premiership last
week, and there were some good lays during the week,
but there was one lesson to be learnt - ignore international
friendlies! From a practical point of view, when a team is at
1-0, what do we do if we've laid the draw? Get out with a
small profit? Hold on and hope there won't be an
equaliser? That's a dangerous game as the later the
equaliser the greater likelihood of a draw.
I still think this concept has a future and will be
experimenting during the week trying to suss out any ways
to increase profitability.
Backing evens trebles has been a little up and down with 2
losses and a win (loss, win, loss) and using loss retrieval
as advised it seems to be profiting (as long as we get a
winning treble in every 3 bets).
Backing ultra shorties (3 at most) in singles using 1/3rd
betting bank on each bet was let down by Man Utd last
weekend. Again I am hopeful of a profitable campaign if I
can select the better shorties. The contention here is they
are short prices for a reason!
I had to laugh mid week when I backed over 4.5 goals in
the Portugal v Faroe Islands game (as advised on the
blog) 85 minutes and I waved this nice bet goodbye only
for 3 goals to be scored in the last 4 minutes - I think the
word is LOL!
This type of bet is what I call an enhanced odds bet -
why? Well Portugal were 1.04 to back, and the
presumption with such a short price is that there will be
goals (as it proved!)
A similar experience in the Scottish Premier League -
Celtic away were 8/13 - we can assume again from the
price that a team usually heavily odds on would find their
encounter with Dundee difficult AND SO IT PROVED.
Celtic could only draw 1-1. We have the same kind of odds
for Rangers tomorrow so the question is what to choose?
Laying Rangers or backing the draw?
One game of note tomorrow - Stoke at home to Villa and I
really cannot see them getting any change out of the
Villans tomorrow. There are plenty of other opportunities
Europe wide.
Well, I've been firing off emails this week to try to get my
hands on new releases and systems that readers have
pointed me towards. It has, though, been a quiet week in
my inbox for new betting system releases. Sports World
Publishing have released their cash booster system but
how many times have I personally had my fingers burned
with these guys (£20K a month with the Money Vault (yeah
right!) - £150K in 3 months with Signposts of Success
(hmm where is it now?) - not really a track record that
leaps out at you is it. But I'll try and get hold of a copy and
report back.
I have included a piece by Martin Blakey in the next
newsletter which I hope will help to show some of you why
your selections may differ from Martin's on his website.
Martin's selections this week?
won 11-2
won 13-2
won 4-1
won 7-2
won 14-1
won 9-1
2nd 7-2
2nd 7-2
4 losers.
Interestingly yesterday the 350 at Great Leighs had 2
potential qualifiers - Irish Mayhem who was 33/1 in the
betting forecast and 12/1 in the live market, and Mount
Hermon - 14/1in the betting forecast opens up at 6/1.
Now strictly following Martin's methodology for ensuring
these qualifiers become selections, Irish Mayhem would
not have qualified. BUT... this horse was making its all
weather debut (I surprised here that perhaps the horse
was not as suited to turf as he might be to all weather
surfaces?) and why the huge price discrepancy?
I backed both Irish Mayhem (Eddie Ahern on board) and
Mount Hermon each way - the race paying out for 4
places.
Result - Irish Mayhem 1st at 12/1 and Mount Hermon 4th
(placed) at 6/1
And here's the race analysis:
"signalled a return to form for the three-year-old IRISH
MAYHEM, who had lost his way after winning a decent
handicap at Yarmouth in April and was making his All-
Weather bow. He was given time to find his feet from off
the pace before making his move nearing the final bend
and ran on strongly when asked for maximum effort. He
ultimately scored with a good deal up his sleeve and,
considering his US pedigree, it is not the biggest
surprise that the switch to this surface worked the
oracle. It is fair to expect connections to now search for a
suitable for him under a penalty and he will be high on
confidence again now."
Very interesting analysis!
As to Mount Hermon "Mount Hermon was not really at his
best here and was certainly not helped by being housed in
the outside stall."
Outside stall!
As far as the trading secrets plan goes, it is still profiting
but, alas, Martin Blakey cannot transfer ALL of his
experience within the manual. Would you have seen the
clues in the above race? Personally, I deducted that the
stable gamble (with decent jockey on board) on Irish
Mayhem may have had something to do with the switch to
a new surface.
It is little differences like this which may be the reason why
some potential selections are discounted by Martin and
others included on the website. I do look at his selections
posted on the website retrospectively to see if I would
have chosen/discounted them.
I'd better tidy the house in anticipation of a visit from the
Rose of Tralee (hope she brings some digestive biscuits).
Have a great weekend
Clive
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