Hi
Last week saw a great example of taking your profits when
you can (or trading!) in the Cork v Kerry Gaelic semi final
last weekend. Kerry were cantering with a few minutes to go
yet 2 Cork goals very late on ensured a draw and a replay this weekend.
Those who used Betfair and kept their bets in running
without taking advantage of trading would be cursing like a
Big Brother contestant after a glass of wine as Kerry reached
1.01 yet still drew (£100 stake to win £1!)
OUCH!
As with the football matches that are in running, it's always
wise to green up when you can - lesson learned eh! We don't
know what's going to happen next (at least I don't anymore
after I split up with Mystic Meg). I'll still be backing Kerry
this weekend BUT will definitely be trading out at a profit.
Elsewhere I've got some great reader feedback on systems
you may have come across in your inbox. Let's take a quick
look at some of the systems which I have had feedback on…
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System Reviews
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My initial fears regarding this tipping service would seem to
be founded. A near 70% strike rate is needed to ensure profit
to level stakes if backing predominantly odds on shots and
short odds against selections. And guess what! The results
and strike rate on the website aren't replicated as soon as
someone stumps up their hard earned and joins – Funny that!
One reader sums it up well
"since joining they have given out 22 bets of which 8 have
won, best price 8/11 hardly impressive.
They also have free of charge given out place bets along the
same line but a similar story 6 bets and 2 places. If you're
after a trial I really wouldn't bother, I will not be placing hard
cash on their tips but will for the next month or so keep you
updated of their progress."
Looks as if the knee jerk reaction is to concentrate on place
only betting after a poor strike rate and they still can't get
that right! This reader also theorises that the selection
methodology is yet another derivative of the price gapper
idea. As you've seen in my blog, we do need a degree of
personal involvement, rather than backing blindly all
potential price gapper qualifiers for us to eek out a profit.
Over the week, there has only been one horse NOT placed
from all of my selections on my blog – and he came 4th and
drifted at the off (excuses, excuses!)
Another reader is also ruing his involvement in this service.
I would reiterate that the strike rate, in my eyes, is
unachievable over a sustained period of time ,and will be difficult with the upcoming Jumps season – obstacles – heavy ground and all that that entails!
After a reader request, and with football the current theme of
the newsletter I thought I'd check this site out so blagged a
copy of the selection system. What did I find?
This strategy is identical to Football Cashbuilder (do look on
Betfair's football forums – the thread might still be there if
you want to find out more) except for the use of decimals
rather than fractional odds. So, in my opinion, for those who
know this methodology already then this is not worth
purchasing . It's a chicken and egg thing – who stole the idea
from who?
This system has been around for a while and I ignored it
because of the need to follow the live betting market (I
cannot personally follow all live market systems I have – it's
just impractical) but it would seem that this system is worthy
of further investigation.
Do take a look at old WRWM's for initial thoughts on this
system.
Positives
Bet ex profits follows live market moves on Betfair only –
and looks to latch onto market movers by betting in a special
manner based on odds and using the place and win markets.
Following the money, especially on Betfair where money is
largely king is a wise policy.
Negatives
This system bets in cycles using 'accumulator staking' – ie
winnings and stakes from last bet go onto the next and so on.
This, of course, presupposes a 100% strike rate which is an
impossibility of course (why the feck did I split up with
Mystic Meg – it could have been a possibility for me!)
I don't think I would be able to take a loss using accumulator
staking after, say, selecting 3 or 4 previous winners – what a
waste!
Alternatives?
Take out initial stake once bank has doubled OR shorten
betting sequences.
Again this system requires us to follow Betfair markets only,
predominantly on the horse racing and would seem to have
an element of long term profitability about it.
Here's a glimpse of Thursday using the system – thanks must
go to Barry for his excellent feedback.
"Just thought I would show you my selections today.
2.10 Ayr Bold Account - win 1.38 Won
3.20 Ling Old Romney - place 1.47 Won
3.50 Ling Fleeting Star - place 1.51 Won
4.20 Ling Cat Patrol – place 1.24 Won
4.30 GtLei Once A Gulch place 1.43 Unplaced
5.10 Ayr Anduril - lay place 3.9 Unplaced
5.15 Bell Cabin Point - place 1.57 Won
That is over 3 days,19 selections of which 17 have been
successful, shows the criteria has some credibility.
Instead of just going for the accumulator, backing each to
£100, lays to £100 liability, would have showed a profit of
£450 - hopefully it continues when I get the hard earned out!"
Certainly impressive and I would agree with Barry that the
initial methodology could be individualised
This is NOT automated betting software as the blurb on the
website would have you believe and is a simple bit of kit for
(DRUM ROLL) laying the draw ( or to use it's technical term
" laying the fecking draw!")
This software is just not worth purchasing whatsoever , the
website is highly misleading and the profits accrued on the
website would require the kind of stakes that only a close
relationship with Richard Branson would allow you to make.
I am quite taken by laying the draw as I wrote in the last
newsletter - but why do chancers still try to flog a dead horse
and repackage something that is now common knowledge!
Nuff said!
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Blogtastic
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The hope the above will help you avoid unnecessary
purchases.
On another note, I have been (as hinted at earlier) extremely
happy with my selections on the horse blog this past week –
only one horse going unplaced, and a lot of winners too (I
will have to tally them up). Price gapping does have its
merits BUT only with, in my opinion, a degree of personal
involvement regarding race types, ground etc)
On a footy perspective, I've been enjoying writing the blog at
I haven't begun looking at permutations just yet and will do
so after 5 weeks of results. I hope there is enough there to
benefit you and to help you decide for yourself.
I'm off to phone Mystic Meg to see if we can get back
together again (of course she already knows this) and to ask
her for a winning 10 game accumulator for this weekend.
Have a great weekend
Clive
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