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Mellow Capello lost me green and made me yellow!

publication date: Sep 17, 2008
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Hi,

Well what a week eh? 

Fabio "and Grooverider" Capello got special permission
from Theo Walcott's parents to allow him to play football
after his usual bedtime (
8pm) and was duly rewarded
with a fine victory over the Croats. I must admit I laid
Eng-er-land ( oh ye of little faith) so lost a little after
young Theo's first goal. 

Is this the kind of blip Sven had (5-1 against Germany)
or the sign of potential being fulfilled? Do the
England
nutritionists have enough Farley's rusks to keep young
Theo happy? 

So many questions, so little time...

*********
FOOTBALL
*********

Well mid week showed some fine examples of football
trading and greening up versus straight greed (and
keeping bets to their finality).

Example 1

This is a prime example of an enhanced bet. You
remember these types don't you? A red hot favourite is
losing, or drawing unexpectedly and their odds are far
greater than pre match.

Cue Romania away to the might of the Faroe Islands.
Now
Romania were 1.04 to win (make £4 for a £100
stake- YIKES!) and were 0-0 at half time. The second
half began and the Romanians got a man sent off. Their
odds to win shot up to 2.00 - yes EVENS FOR A TEAM
AGAINST THE FAROES! 

I couldn't resist and to be honest I wish I'd put my house
on it (well my landlord's house anyway!). 

Cue Romania's goal and the odds of 2.00 (evens)
reduce dramatically to 1.05 - green up - happy days
and a great enhanced odds bet

Example 2

Portugal played the Danes at home and were strong
favourites. The interesting part of the game occurred in
the last few minutes. 

2-1 to Portugal and Portugeuse backers  (not punters
from
Portugal, but backers of Portugal!) should have laid
off their back bets with a matter of 4 minutes to go. 

BUT NO, Those pesky Danes scored and equaliser and
decided to score a winner in the 90th+ minute leaving
backers of the home team cursing to the heavens. 

Some lucky bar steward backed the Danes at 1000 odds
(£112 matched!) - and no it wasn't me cos I'm still
writing this fecking eletter! - D'OH!

A prime example of trading out and actually sacrificing
potential profit for the safety of getting our stakes back is
the way to go. Too many times have I seen a "sure
thing" go all
Denmark on me! A great lesson to learn.
And if that wasn't enough, backers of
Argentina
(insomniacs mostly) would have been delighted that they
scored first against
Peru, and SHOULD HAVE TRADED
OUT THERE AND THEN for a guaranteed profit. No
doubt the greed monster would have bitten one or 2 who
would have been cursing louder than the Portuguese
backers with a 90th minute equaliser!

So if you're thinking about trading the many in running
football matches, then learn from these mid week
matches and take a profit when a profit presents itself ,
and kick that greed monster to the curb, girlfriend!


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**************************************

*********
BLOGTASTIC
*********

Well I gave myself a little pat on the back having tipped
up Lithuania in last week's football blog at a whopping
11/1. They won 3-0 and I nearly fell off my chair! If only
all 11/1 shots won away from home 3-0!

We're getting to week 4 now in the domestic league and
one more week will signal the start of testing on some
systems requiring a foundation of form. I'll also begin
purchasing the Racing and Football Outlook as this is a
great resource for all the form you need for the footy. 

On to the horse blog and it's another 100% record today
,albeit at odds which are shorter than Ronnie Corbett
after a piano has fallen on his head. 

Me and my team of ex Nasa scientists (erm, Clive, I
don't recall giving you permission to employ ex Nasa
scientists - the Publisher) have been looking at ways to
exploit this very high strike rate (only 2 losing bets in the
last 3 weeks) and I have come up with the idea of using
these bets to get my 2% compounding per day. High
strike rate but short odds but I remain confident, and am
already on day 5! If I get a loser ,well I have the option
there of employing that old chestnut loss retrieval - yes
I've said it before - loss retrieval and short odds don't
mix, but with a strike rate this good, I shouldn't need to
employ loss retrieval too often. 

I'll keep you informed - I am very confident about this. 

*************
GUINEAU PIGS WANTED
*************

No I'm not collecting domesticated furry animals, I'm
looking for a few testers for a new service which will be
focussing on stable gambles, and horses the old stable
lad and trainer have given a nod and a wink to. So email
me in the usual way if you're interested in testing this
exciting new service which is unique to you as it hasn't
even been launched. I have to limit numbers to about 20
so get in touch sharpish as places will fill up fast. 

************
GOT A GOOD MEMORY?
************

This time last year I was settling down in Ireland and told
you to back Kerry for the All Ireland Gaelic Final at 7/2
with Boyles Sports (I did - honest - check the eletter if
you don't believe me!)  Well they're in the final and I
have to decide whether to create a risk free bet by laying
off my bet on Betfair or letting it run? Decisions decisions
- the match is on next weekend!

I'm off now to nurse my bruises from last week's
Clouseau'esque lunch date in Killarney where Kato
managed to assault me only 4 times during the date. 

Have a great weekend,  

Clive

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