Hi,

A story in The Racing Post this week proves why you should ignore certain 'experts' at all costs, regardless of the claims they make.

Remember, if you're looking at a new system or tipping service, always ensure that they're backed by a reputable publishing company and offer an ironclad guarantee.

Why?

Well read about a certain Denis McCarthy...

"A bogus tipster from West Sussex has been prevented
from carrying out any more scams after being hit with a
high court injunction following action taken by the OFT"

The article mentions Mr McCarthy who sent out mail
shots in the name of D&E Associates "offering a racing tipster service which, at the cost of up to £397, promised the chance to win "over £2,000 per week tax-free" It is believed that 4,000 people sent money in response, netting McCarthy an estimated £300,000"

To précis the rest of the article, the "experts" claimed by
Mr McCarthy to be behind the service DID NOT EXIST!
Period! They were jackanory figments of his imagination,
but how on earth were readers of the brochure to know?!

Furthermore, McCarthy failed to provide evidence to
support his claim that members had made "over
£350,000 clear tax-free profit in the previous six years".

Mike Haley, director of consumer protection at the OFT,
summed it up well: "These mailings used ficticious names and false claims to mislead thousands of consumers into sending money in the belief they would have access to a successful tipster service".

SOUND FAMILIAR? You betcha!

Are you listening Mr Chris Munce? If that's even your real
name!

Quite simply, you have to be highly sceptical at all times when it comes to these types of charlatans. My only advice - I've said it before and I'll say it again - make sure they can back up their claims. And ensure their service is backed by a reputable publishing company.

You know what really bothers me about all this... this Mr
McCarthy gets to keep his ill gotten gains, just as Mr
Henderson gets to keep all his £185's a month from his
Autolays scam.

Another thing which gets my goat (it's okay I have a
collection of some 12 goats so I have plenty to spare - in
order to marry Kelly Brook I need at least 10 goats for the
dowry!) is the PREMIUM RATE PHONE TIPSTERS.

Why? Because there is no watch dog at all with these
services.

PREMIUM RATE LINES - SELECTIVE MEMORY LOSS

I read a superb thread in the Betfair Forum this week.
The writer followed a well advertised premium rate tipping
service whose adverts appear daily in The Racing Post,
and after reading this piece it becomes obvious, yet
again, that there is no one regulating this particular
aspect of the betting industry.

Here's how it works. Simply don't disclose the losers and
big up the winners! And when you've had another day
where you've put up 10 selections, all of which have lost,
leave tomorrow's advert conveniently blank until such
time as you have some winners to brag about.

Talk about selective memory loss. This is a standard trick
and is highly misleading to prospective readers. Noone
checks so they get away with it. I saved the thread
because it was so informative, so if anyone wants to read
it, let me know!

I've given you fair warning about these premium rate line
scams! Do not come running to me from now on if you fall
for one of them. There'll be no tea and sympathy from me
(well there might be some tea, oh and chocolate
digestives - no make it Mince pies cos it's Xmas!)

A SUPERB TRADING EXAMPLE FOR THOSE WHO PUT FAITH IN THE PRICE

I must recount to you an extraordinary trading opportunity
in a football match that occurred this week. It involved
Brondby and AC Horsens in the Danish league.
Now Brondby were 2/7 to win the match and were
playing at home. For me, this is indicative of one thing -
Brondby would not lose this match if the bookmakers'
prices are accurate.

Well, here's what happened! Brondby went 2-0 DOWN.
Their price increased to 4.5. AC Horsen's price
plummeted to 1.71.

Hold on a second! 1.71 for a team 2-0 up - now that's a
lay if ever there was one against a team initially 2/7 to
win the match.

Cue the comeback - Brondby scored the next 3 goals.
Job done. After their first goal the odds to back AC
Horsens were 3.3 allowing a very lucrative trade while
THEY WERE STILL A GOAL AHEAD!

Now games like this don't come along that often but
when they do they are a trader's dream. These occasions
are the type you stumble across when doing other trading
activities. Do look out for occasions where a very short
odds home team goes behind. They can afford you some
superb opportunities to profit. All in all I came out of the
match with a nice green screen but some lucky so and so
backed Brondby at 4.5! Yes - the old enhanced bets rear
their heads again!

Perhaps you can make a note of all ultra short priced
matches across Europe which are in running and just
casually glance at the scores in case an opportunity like
this shows itself.

*************************
Publishers Pick!

"Free Binoculars and a damn good system! I have made
another £71 this Saturday and £44 on Sunday. To be
honest I wasn't bothered about the free gift, I just wanted
something that improves my Betfair balance without high
risk exposure. Thanks."
Chris, Stafford.

To find out what Chris is so excited about click here

*************************

PLACE TASTIC

It's been a good week for the place only bets again. My
only faux pas came in selecting Twist Magic at 1.56. I
mentioned on the blog that 1.56 was a risky price and did
not indicate the kind of rock solid place only bet I look for.
The horse duly came unplaced and the winner - Ashley
Brook - 14/1 in The Racing Post Betting Forecast backed
down to 8/1 - a classic 16/1 type system bet!

As well as being a 16/1 system bet this was also a
trading secrets plan bet because it was a handicap. A
quiet week for the trading secrets plan with more placed
horses and only 3 winners including Ashley Brook who I
personally included given the small field and the size of
the market move when comparing the betting forecast
and live market.

Martin Blakey's new service begins this week, and the
trial has been successful in my eyes: www.pro-info.co.uk
is the name of the site and I will be monitoring this with
interest given the consistency of The Target 10 tipping
Service which devoted itself solely to handicaps and, of
course, the discovery via the Trading Secrets Plan, that
the 16/1 system, when focussed on handicap, seems to
be the breakthrough to consistency

So why did I choose Twist Magic for my place only bet? Simple probability - there were 4 horses (when I wrote the blog) only below double figure odds (Ashley Brook's gamble
was revealed nearer the off).

I use this principle of probability a lot in my place only
bets. The next day's selection Little White Lies is a
template example. A 6 horse race reduced to 5. This
pays 2 the place. 2 horses from those 5 are priced 100/1
or bigger! This reduces the field to concentrate on for
place only purposes to 3 doesn't it? 3 horses fighting out
for 2 places, and the selection a winner on the ground
(which was heavy).

If you were to just focus on these probability bets your
chances of success will be greatly enhanced. This is the
uniqueness of Betfair's place market. They will always
offer original places - e.g: an 8 runner race pays out for 3
places in the place market. Any non runners will mean
that the bookmakers will only pay out on 2 places BUT
Betfair will usually remain with 3 places. -an increased
probability that horse will place as there are fewer rivals!

Other ideas? Well how about checking out the Bankers or
Blowouts section of The Racing Post newspaper as they
focus on a couple of horses expected to be... yes you
guessed, bankers, BUT who could be blowouts.

I'm off now to congratulate What Really Wins Money
reader Barry K Baumer on becoming the next President
of the United States. Well done Barry - I have sent him a
Brookes eBook - framed and signed by the greatest
writer of this Millenium - for him to take into the White
House with him - I hope he and Mrs Baumer will enjoy its
contents. I've also signed him up to Autolays - with only
a 0.34% chance of losing (despite losing already) it could
get the US out of the economic crisis it finds itself in!

And no, Barry will not be going to Cheltenham this year -
something about being leader of the Free World or
something!

Have a great weekend.

Clive