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14/11
publication date: Nov 14, 2008
Good day yesterday with all shortlisted fancies placing, and yet again we saw the value of place only betting as Front of House, heavily backed, could only manage 2nd place
150 CHELTENHAM BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 American Trilogy, 5/2 Leo´s Lucky Star, 6/1 Over Sixty, 7/1 Golan Way, 12/1 Indian Spring, 14/1 Hunters Ploy, 20/1 Mhilu, 25/1 Spiriton, 33/1 Charley.
Soft ground at Chelters - guess what? Yes, Nicholls/Walsh on another hot pot! 2 horses at 66/1 can be discounted I hope, leaving us with 7 runners vying for 3 places Do we focus on all those sub double figure odds? If so, the horses involved are reduced to 4. The strong King/Thornton combo should be involved on Over Sixty. Grade 2 class 1 indicates this is competitive 2.58 / 1.34 300 BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 L´Ami, 3/1 Garde Champetre, 8/1 Hoo La Baloo, 9/1 Puntal, 12/1 Crystal D´Ainay, 14/1 Petite Margot, 16/1 Juventus, Oh Jackie, Star Performance, 20/1 Florida Dream, Nuit Rochelaise, 25/1 Dix Villez, 33/1 Sorry Al, 50/1 Pass Me By, 66/1 The Man Himself, 100/1 Fisherman Jack.
No Spotthedifference - one of my favourite horses who simply farmed this race over the years. Edna Bolger is a specialist in this cross country event and guess what, has the 1st and 2nd in the betting. This is 3 miles 7 over cross country fences so does not represent a solid place betting option but you'll get relatively big place only odds . An alternative to getting our target profit is to back Garde Champetre and lay off at lower prices in running IF the horse can run as Bolger's have always run in this event 3.25 / 1.69 4.6 / 1.95 920 KEMPTON BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Tubby Isaacs, 11/2 Make My Dream, 8/1 Asian Power, Resplendent Alpha, Royal Envoy, 12/1 C´Mon You Irons, Charles Darwin, Magical Speedfit, 14/1 Loose Caboose, Playful, 16/1 Millfield, 25/1 Doctor Hilary.
Hint of a price gap here 3.15 / 1.44 130 NEWC BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 River Shanakill, 11/2 Stick Together, 10/1 Riodan, Starbougg, 20/1 A Bit Chancy, Overthrow, Primrose Time, 25/1 Aint She The Lady, Doraflora, Luzenie, One More Gypsy, Prioryjo, 33/1 Apsara, La Donna Del Largo, 66/1 Henbeck Lady, 100/1 Ella Maccadella.
Price gap here, BUT a maiden hurdle and shorties have a poor record in these race types 8/11 in a 16 runner field indicates there may be a lot of deadwood 1.76 / 1.26 250 SOUTHWELL BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Taqdeyr, 9/2 Superior Duchess, 8/1 Balata, Imperial Djay, 10/1 Edmondstown Lass, Wannarock, 33/1 Sixth Zak, 50/1 Mickys Mate, Santa Clara, 66/1 Curly Brown, Daggerman, Lavender And Lace.
Decent price gap here but a maiden race 1.73 / 1.17 SHORTLIST If you fancy a challenge then Garde Champetre ( course and distance winner at this venue) at 1.69 represents a relatively big price for place betting River Shankill and Taqdeyr are my other 2 with preference for Taqdeyr given there are 6 horses at 33/1 or bigger |
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