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21/1
publication date: Jan 21, 2009
100 MUSS
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Woody Waller, 3/1 Sea Storm, 7/1 Bespoke Boy, Pontop, 8/1 Simple Jim, 10/1 Abolition, Best Horse, 16/1 Strobe, 20/1 Bumble Rose, 50/1 Art Bank, Byron Bay, Catai, 100/1 Dukesfield.
FAv backed into 13/8 1.41 to place 130 MUSS BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Don´t Stop Me Now, 5/1 Elzahann, 7/1 Danzatrice, 8/1 Just Posh, Kings Maiden, 10/1 Naturally Inspired, 12/1 Lemon Drizzle, 16/1 Wheyaye, 25/1 Leith Walk, 50/1 Bromley Bay, Pugnacity, 100/1 Claresburn, Elsies Nook, Vallani.
Now odds on in this mares only hurdle 2.18 win and 1.24 place 230 MUSS BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Casual Affair, 4/1 Calcutta Cup, 6/1 Commit To Memory, 8/1 I´m Delilah, 10/1 Twilight Dawn, 12/1 Bajan Pride, Capped For Victory, 16/1 Fujin Dancer, Spare Days, 25/1 Masterofceremonies, Sir Douglas, 50/1 Overlaw.
4 sub 16/1 in the live market Casual affair 1.56 to place Calcutta Cup 1.63 to place I'm Delilah 1.93 to place Commit to memory 1.94 to place Hardly scream out any real confidence! BUT this is nearly a probability race and one for the chancers to hope the market is accurate and there are no dark horses outside of these 4 250 WOLVES BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Aahaygirl, 3/1 Pearl Of Manacor, 7/1 Gurteen Diamond, 10/1 Brett Vale, One Cool Mission, 14/1 Fashion Icon, 20/1 Chase End, Chief Wild Cat, Pedregal, 25/1 Foreign Investment, 33/1 Cruise Control, 66/1 Minibuzz.
Pearl is a market mover but has not run since 15th Aug in this maiden 1.42 Pearl and 1.42 Aahaygirl to place 320 WOLVES BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Bridgewater Boys, 7/2 Nawamees, Quince, 7/1 Boundless Prospect, Calzaghe, 14/1 Spume, 25/1 Still Dreaming, 100/1 Mister Maq,
The fav is out - will this open the race up to the 2 horses who were sub 7/1 in the betting forecast? We would ideally want 3 the place still on Betfair _YES 3 to place -Quince is 1.39 and Nawammess 1.45 to place 400 MUSSBETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Red Onion, 4/1 Now This Is It, 9/2 Alvarado, 5/1 Miss Keck, 8/1 Nodforms Violet, 10/1 Hunters Belt, 14/1 I´Ll Be Frank, 20/1 Doc Wells, 25/1 Barron Watlass, 33/1 Teviot Hill, 66/1 Beatemall, Moscow Mischief, Shahramore, Shambery.
Baron Watlass now 7/2 (check the betting forecast price!) and this is a biumper where market moves are important 1.81 to place - is this a market mover or has the betting forecaster underestimated by quoting 25/1 450 WOLVES GULP! BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Castaneous, 4/1 Hurforharmony, 7/1 Valentine Blue, 10/1 General Tufto, Taran Tregarth, 20/1 Listen Carefully, 25/1 Special Chapter.
A poor maiden and only 2 the place - dare we trust this odds on shot in such a poor race? 1.32 to place 520 WOLVES
A 0-70 handicap with a price gapper backed in the live market - not quite the low grade that would fit into my system re price gappers in 0-50 - 0-60 handicaps but interesting all the same Only 9 run which means 3 the place 1.14 to place -interesting as I was expecting it to be a lot bigger to be honest 720 KEMPTON BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Avoir Choisi, 4/1 Elisiario, 8/1 Saints Bay, 10/1 Five Gold Rings, 12/1 Hidden Horse, 16/1 Esteem Dancer, 20/1 Lyrical Intent, 25/1 Valid Point.
8 down to 7 runners - still 3 the place? Only 2 horses sub 10/1 in the revised live market - 1.1 (illiquid market) 750 KEMPTON BETTING FORECAST: Evs Double Act, 6/1 Celtic Commitment, Hold The Bucks, Precocious Air, 10/1 Special Bond, 14/1 Jonnie Skull, Turn To Dreams, 25/1 Tartan Turban, 33/1 Snoozing.
They're all coming thick and fast at KEmpton - a price gapper in a lowly claimer is of great interest to me BUT decisions really ,for practial reasons, need to be made nearer 750 pm ,rather than 1230pm! 1.19 to place 820 WOLVES
The straight 8 makes this of interest 1.27 to place ONE A DAY A tricky day today in my eyes 320 wolves -quince looks worth a chance purely from a probability perspective 520 wolves - milne bay -I am taken by his shortness in the place market 750 kempton - double act -price gapper My instinct today tells me to wait for Kempton and take each race as it comes because the markets will be stronger Quince I think may be worth a gamble as we have 7 runners, still 3 the place, and 2 horses at 25/1 and 100/1. He has, then, 2 to beat to place and is the market leader at present A safer option is Milne Bay today, although a multiple handicap winner, like River Kirov, he is priced to run well again. |
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