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6/2
publication date: Feb 6, 2009
Safebreaker actually won yesterday - to be expected I suppose with 2nd,
3rd, 4th favs non runners. It's easy isn't it - takes no horse racing
knowledge - pure logic and common sense!
Similar to Edas's race - a 5 runner race paying 3 the place. Edas was well beaten into 3rd yet still qualified for a place only payout ON BETFAIR ( bookies only 2 the place) PURE PROBABILITY - no insider knowledge - no exhaustive form analysis- just common sense! 135 FONTWELL BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Shoreacres, 6/4 Ruthenoise, 8/1 Highest Esteem, 33/1 Rockandahardplace, 50/1 Our Fugitive.
2nd fav is a non runner in what was priced up as a 2 horse race - surely ,then, Shoreacres by default? 1.05 to place says it all! 145 BANGOR ON DEE BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Quartz De Thaix, 7/2 Duke Of Miskin, Strokestown, 11/2 Roganstown, 10/1 Galaxy Rock, 16/1 Reindeer Dippin, 20/1 Cross Kennon, 33/1 Gershwinner, 100/1 Howzat Harry.
9 runners down to 6 runners with only 2 horses under 33/1 in Quartz and Strokestown 1.07 and 1.12 and 3 to be placed 155 STHL
Fav a non runner - one outsider only at 10/1 though and hopefully 3 playing for 2 places La Capriosa - 1.65 Diamond Surprise -1.31 Gurteen diamond - 2.05 Floods of tears - 5.1 210 FONTWELL BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Gauvain, 11/4 The Package, 3/1 Heathcote, 12/1 Black Beauty, 20/1 Sebastiano.
The package a non runner along with outsider -Gauvain by default? 1.18 to place in a 3 horse race! Heathcote is 1.23 250 BANGOR BETTING FORECAST: 4/9 Ping Pong Sivola, 9/2 Tastes Like More, 8/1 Za Beau, 12/1 Catch The Stars, 14/1 Marsh Court.
VEry well fancied last time out, Ping Pong is priced to go in again 1.17 to place 330 STHL
Whiskey got up by a neck yesterday and I think is opposable today. Yes I laid the fecker yesterday and could have traded in running, and expect him to get beat today so will wade in again. 345 FONT BETTING FORECAST: 2/5 Exmoor Ranger, 5/2 Mount Sandel, 25/1 Monzon, 33/1 Present Oriented.
2nd fav now clear market leader with Exmoor out Mount Sandel 1.19 to place in a 3 horse race - only 1 to beat to place 425 BANGOR BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Le Duc, 11/4 Limerick Boy, 5/1 Baby Run, 11/2 Brooklyn Breeze, 6/1 Kaldouas, 14/1 Tommy Spar, 20/1 Le Seychellois, 33/1 Gulabill, In Hot Pursuit, 100/1 Triple Seven.
Again more non runners and if 3 the place, Limerick Boy would be a good place only option taking over favouratism with 2 perceived outsiders 1.27 to place in a 3 the place race - NOTE - hunter chase 435 STHL BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Esprit De Midas, 9/2 Dahama, 15/2 My Best Man, 10/1 Dancing Wave, Spinight.
Not quite fitting into my donkeys system, but this is a 0-70 class 5 handicap with a clear price gapper ( especially so in the live betting market)] 1.13 to place 615 NAD AL SHEEBA BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Devotee, 11/4 Sos Brillante, 7/2 India Tiberina, 7/1 So Shiny, 14/1 Earth Living, Esta Bailando, 20/1 Fire Sale, 25/1 Estrela Boa, 33/1 Purple Sage, 66/1 Ever Loved. Devotee well fancied with Frankie on board ( THAT Frankie, not Spencer!!) 1.12 to place (market not fully formed) 720 WOLVES BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Riguez Dancer, 7/2 Imperial Harry, 7/1 American Spin, 8/1 Mustajed, 10/1 Leslingtaylor, 14/1 Khun John, 16/1 King Supreme, Top Seed, 20/1 Anfield Road, Morbick, Sheer Fantastic, 33/1 Noubian.
A winner the other day and we have another decision to make - will he win again or is he opposable as a multiple handicap winner going up the weights (of course we can leave the race alone) NON RUNNER NOW 750 WOLVES BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Where´s Reiley, 2/1 Speak The Truth, 5/2 Five Gold Rings, 14/1 Cindy Incidentally, Wee Bizzom, 50/1 Poaka Beck, 100/1 Cool Madam,
Original 8 runner race down to 6 runners - need to check on Betfair if 3 the place -YES STILL 3 THE PLACE 1.16 / 1.12 / 1.31 but the market really has not formed 920 WOLVES BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 St Moritz, 5/2 Changing The Guard, 7/1 Head Down, 14/1 Grand Honour, Luckydolly.
Head down is a non runner which produces an exaggerated price gap between the front 2 and the outsiders - something to exploit for place only purposes? 1.1 and 1.29 - again the markets are not formed at all ONE A DAY We must account for heavy ground ,but as I have said before, my over cautious attitude to heavy ground has cost me in the past - can we safely assume that the prices are reflective of ability or otherwise to handle heavy ground? Shoreacres is obvious -1.22 to win and 1.05 to place. Personally I would back to win and trade out in running 1.07 for Quartz de Thaix again betrays the apparent ease of the task with 4 horses 33/1 or bigger and Strokestown at 1.12 - 3 TO PLACE as well Gauvain at 1.18 has 1 to beat to place Ping Pong Sivola is 1.17 to place 345 FONT - Moutn Sandel in the original betting forecast was one of only 2 horses sub 25/1 and is now fav in a 3 horse race at 1.17 - very appealing 750 WOLVES - Speak the truth looks good for a place in a 6 runner race with 2 outsiders and 3 places - has had plenty of runs for a maiden and a good 2nd last time out CONCLUSION - I will back Shoreacres to win only and trade. Sticking purely to place only betting I would be happy with Shoreacres but at a bigger price I would go for Gauvain. HE only has to NOT FALL and we have an outstanding chance with only 1 to beat. This is a day where I will place back quite a few horses given the opportunities presented by non runners and small fields creating excellent place only betting opportunities |
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