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7/2
publication date: Feb 7, 2009
Well ,as you'll see on the comment to yesterday's blog entry at
www.back-lay-trade-horses-football.blogspot.com, I laid off at 1.05 in
running using the green up feature on Fairbot on Shoreacres who
eventually fell. It was more by luck than judgement but I stuck to my
plan and was rewarded.
Yesterday perhaps shows that my cautious approach to heavy ground and jumps was vindicated and not overtly cautious. In a day where I could not personally guage the ground conditions, it would, in hindsight, have been wiser to have concentrated on the all weather meetings. Shoreacres was a casualty, as was Gauvain who traded at 1.05 in running in the place only market. Quartz de Thaix won, Ping Pong Sivola won, and Whiskey Creek lost as I expected ecentually ( a day too late the bar steward!) , Mount Sandel won, Limerick Boy won, Espris de Midas won, Devotee unplaced, Speak the truth won, St Moritz won. All in all an excellent haul and the key component to one a day success is making the right decision!! LEt's learn from yesterday - heavy ground at Ayr means I'll swerve this one! 120 LING BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Desert Bump, 3/1 Precocious Air, 100/30 Special Bond, 12/1 Michelle, 25/1 Farriers Gate, 33/1 Whotsit, 50/1 Outdroad.
7 runners, 3 of whom are 40/1 or bigger. The field of potential winners, then, can hopefully be reduced to 4, 2 of whcih will place. Michelle I hoped to discount but at 7/1 may be in with a shout. 1.38 to place and only 2 places 140 KEMP BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Pause And Clause, 4/1 The Shoe, 5/1 Frontier Dancer, 7/1 Helpston, 12/1 Quinz, 14/1 Dorothy´s Friend, Springfield Raki, 66/1 Comkilred Champ.
NOTE - this is the jumps course - soft ground and 2 miles 5 furlongs - included as there is a semblance of a price gap. 1.34 150 LING BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Chjimes, 11/4 Mutamared, 5/1 Qadar, Storey Hill, 7/1 Thoughtsofstardom.
Qadar now 12/1 in the live market and a top heavy market here with Mutamared now sharing favouratism at 6/4 1.34 and 1.41 245 WOLVES BETTING FORECAST: 4/1 Prairie Hawk, 5/1 Vanquisher, 11/2 Nounou, Taxman, 6/1 Sea Cliff, Spume, 10/1 Nothing Is Forever, 20/1 Bet Noir, 25/1 Bolton Hall, Rebel Raider, 33/1 Diktatorship, 40/1 Born West.
Fav now 15/8 in places 1.56 to place 250 KEMP BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 Denman, 6/1 Albertas Run, 7/1 Joe Lively, 8/1 Trabolgan, 14/1 Madison Du Berlais, 33/1 An Accordion, 50/1 Niche Market.
YES its 3 miles over jumps - YES it's soft ground - BUT it's ONLY FECKING DENMAN! 1.38 to place - a huge price! - something amiss? This is the price quoted in the betting forecast for him to win! 320 WOLVES BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Fantastic Fred, 3/1 Miss Fritton, 6/1 Autumn Morning, Turn To Dreams, 8/1 Nimmy´s Special, 10/1 Miss Cracklinrosie, 20/1 Citizenship, 33/1 Kneesy Earsy Nosey.
As has been a running theme of late, we have another handicap fav on a hatrick - he's priced to win again but Miss Fritton is very close in the betting 1.29 to place Watch out - Citizenship is 10/1 (look at the betting forecast price!!) 355 WOLVES BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Harry Up, 7/2 Doubtful Sound, 4/1 Wotashirtfull, 7/1 Pawan, 10/1 Bo McGinty, Canadian Danehill, Godfrey Street, 14/1 Gwilym, 25/1 Haajes,
3rd fav out, in a 10 runner race reduced to 7. Still 3 the place? If so, then Harry Up must be a place contender? 1.52 to place (illiquid market) 445 LING BETTING FORECAST: 1/3 Flamsteed, 9/2 Geese A Laying, 16/1 Wicksy Creek, 25/1 Kalligal, 33/1 Only Hope,
Trigger words - very much the one to beat. Priced to win and win well - caution - maiden! 1.38 to win, and 1.08 to place in a market which has not formed just yet ONE A DAY WEll, what can I say? Is Denman being ridden by Stevie Wonder this afternoon? 1.38 to place looks very very tempting indeed. 8/15 at time of writing sounds a note of caution amongst the backers here. Is the health scare mentioned in Spotlight playing on backer's minds. This is a Gold Cup winner for feck's sake! Another note of caution - this is not a "must win" for Denman - as Spotlight says "getting a run into him prior to Cheltenham may be the priority" I just don't like anything else personally today - Flamsteed is very obvious but is sub 1.1 ( if touching `1.1 I would consider backing to place Elsewhere in the footy Celtic are 1.08, Chelsea 1.23 , AZ ALKMAAR are 1.24, Anderlecht 1.21 and AC Milan 1.23. I wanted to do a double with Celtic and Rangers but Rangers play tomorrow. Now 1.34 for over 2.5 goals is the one I think for Celtic's match. Any team at 1.08 is priced to score at least 3 on their own! Half time/Full time is 1.34 too which is tempting In conclusion, I think Denman to place at 1.38 is too tempting to forego although I am very aware that this price "seems too good to be true" and may prove so! If the ground looks to be becoming heavy then this will be a no bet and I will revert to the football instead in a day where it is tricky to nail one good priced place ( Flamsteed is NOT a good price at present) |
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