Hi

No, not a new reality TV Show but the beginning of the
6 nations Rugby Union. Now I'm sure over the coming
weeks there will be some great betting opportunities
throughout the tournament.

I will be concentrating on the outright winner market and
the Wooden Spoon markets I think, as my knowledge of
Rugby Union is not that good I'm afraid.

I do not think that Ireland will win the 6 nations and at
4.4 they look a reasonable lay to me.

It would seem on Betfair that this is a market, which is
"in running" allowing us to trade.

I fancy Wales and France above all others this year,
based purely on what happened last year, and with
Wales 3.2, France 4.6 and England 5.6, these 3 teams
can be dutched... OR using software such as Fairbot, I
can create a break even bet on England and load profit
on Wales and France.

If Italy lose against England, as expected, then their
1.55 to win the Wooden Spoon, should shorten

I'm sure there'll be some great trading opportunities in
running. Laying England tomorrow at 1.17 looks
enticing as Italy, who have been improving, may put up
a semblance of resistance early on.

Laying shorties like this with trading in mind has been a
successful ploy in the Tennis and even Basket ball
(effectively 4 games in 1 with the 4 Quarters) and any
frustrations from the English team will be reflected in a
bigger price.

My new nephew, Alex, is going to have a confusing
baptism with the 6 Nations. His mother is Welsh, his
father is English but supports Ireland (as my Mum is
Irish). I have sent Alex an emergency supply of Farleys
Rusks to assuage his confusion.

5 Star Tipster Warning

Thanks to readers who have informed me regarding an
email sent purporting to be from Jamie, ex of 5 star
tipster, and a bogus email sent in his name.

"Hi
 
As you're interested in racing, I thought you'd like to
know the 'All-Time Top Tips'
 
They're listed in an eBook
you can download free here: www.martynstevens.co.uk
 
If you've not heard of Martyn Stevens, you really should
take a look.
 
www.martynstevens.co.uk
 
Best wishes
 
Jamie"

Jamie Kelly warns,  
 
"I can assure you that I am not sending this email and
the guy behind this is pulling a fast one. I have never promoted a system called Martyn Stevens,
and nor will I ever. The means in which this person,
Martyn Stevens is using my name is not ethical and he is trying to cheat all of you out there".

You see the battle we have on our hands, folks! Any old
trick to try and part you from your cash! So please
please be extra cautious and remember, YOU ARE
THE WATCHDOG, because there isn't one!

Danny Sullivan Shout Out

I promised a reader I would do a shout out in this
eletter. So, if you have experience of Danny Sullivan or
if you can offer any contact details (phone or email)
then please email me.

"I need some information on a Racing" tipping service.
DSRacingclub.com-is run by a Danny Sullivan, who
runs this service from an office at: 415,Dorset House,
Duke Street, Chelmsford, Essex, CM1 1TB,Tel: 0870-
626-5025. He also has a web site at dsracingclub.com,
which, for the last few weeks, has not been available,
due to 'so-called, Changes.

I don't know which way to turn, as I cannot get any reply
from the office, or his brother-Jimmy's mobile, or the
web-site or by e-mail. Please-can you help me?  I also
have other telephone numbers, but with the same result
as above. I have sent e-mails to "enquiry
@dsracingclub.com asking them, that due to the fact
that their advices have been disgraceful, for them to
return my Investment of 2k. But to no avail."

I have noticed that Mr Sullivan has a website at
www.dsracingclub.net but that's as far as I have got.

The reader is very frustrated so any help you could
provide would, as you can appreciate, be most
welcome.

Of course, it shouldn't come to this, but as I keep
wittering on, there is no watchdog - in this industry.
Unless you're buying from a reputable publisher, you
will be open to non-refunds, broken promises,
guarantees not honoured and "Magical Mysterious
disappearing tipsters!"

So, I'll say again " BUYER BEWARE".

An Alternative To The Racing Post?

http://www.racing-plus.co.uk/

An interesting alternative to the Racing Post has
recently been launched. I wonder how long it will last.

Do check out the website which offers an alternative
layout for each race card. The meeting pointers seem to
be especially useful as they allow you to view the race
meeting by course winners, distance winners, and
winners last time out

The form analysis of each horse takes its pointers from
Turftrax and is a lot more simplistic than the Racing
Post.

I hope this website and Saturday publication has
longevity unlike previous alternatives to the Racing Post
which were rather short-lived. Still there is enough in
the website version for me to take a daily look at the
site and see if I can notice some trends or areas which
happen to highlight horses who perform well.

Take a look yourself - it's free - and free always offers
cracking value!   

http://www.winnerstolosers.com/files/2009_bank_sp.pdf

This link will show you January's results for Winners to
Losers. NOTE - prices are to SP and may not
necessarily compare to real world prices on Betfair.

This is a site where you can follow the Winners to
Losers, and selections do tally with mine which is
encouraging.

So, inspect the results for yourself at the site. It has
delivered in January and the fixed liability staking is a
good way to negate the impact of the big odds horses.
Only 7 rules, it's an uncomplicated method. Whenever
sites offer to show results, I think it is always worth
checking on a month-by-month basis.

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The Sharp End System
 
As expected I suppose with mechanical betting systems
and inclement weather, ground and abandonments,
The Sharp End System was very poor in January.

As ever I will continue to monitor up til next newsletter  -
short prices do need a CONSISTENTLY high strike
rate...

And this is what I am still achieving with the one-a-days
place only. Another 100% strike rate in a truncated
week but 100% all the same.

Keys to success
-    NAPS - one a day betting allows focus on the
BEST BET OF THE DAY and the bet most
likely to return
-     PLACE ONLY BETTING - far easier to find a
horse to place in the first 3 in an 8 runner race
than to find the outright winner.

That's it really!

Level stakes are profiting as is the compounding (for
those with patience!)

As to the footballing version, well Man Utd won, and
Barcelona won, as did PSV (scraped through 6-0)

Overs And Unders

I have had an idea regarding how to use the Overs and
Unders methodology far more successfully than
suggested in the eBook.

I noticed that, when over 2.5 goals games are flagged
up, the goals do come. But on a couple of occasions
recently, games resulted in 2-0 score lines, which is a
losing score line for over 2.5 goals betting which
requires 3 goals.

So, WHY NOT TRADE? My focus on the blog is on the
big boys throughout Europe, and these games tend to
result in Betfair allowing in running betting.

I think this is an idea with legs and will be investigating
it intermittently on the soccer blog
www.soccerbettingmoneymaker.blogspot.com

Enhanced Odds Bets Still Doing The Biz!

I wrote about it in the recent newsletter and here's
another example. Ajax were 1.18 to beat Heracles on
Tuesday. What does this usually mean? It usually
means that Heracles are due a tonking of epic
proportions.

I was busy checking out other footy matches when I
glanced at the scoreline - Ajax 0 - Heracles 2

CHACHING I exclaimed!

I checked out the odds. Ajax were 5/1 in running. Now
5/1 for a 1/5 (and shorter) shot is VALUE in anyone's
book regardless of the scoreline.

I put a crafty £30 on at the odds. I left the bet. Bear in
mind here that Heracles were 2-0 up after half an hour!

There's Two Thirds Of The Match To Go For Fecks
Sake!

It took a while, I must admit, for the Ajax breakthrough,
but the 70th and 72nd minutes saw 2 goals and a 2-2
scoreline. I greened up with a £54 guaranteed profit on
each outcome.

Ajax did score again BUT it was disallowed. I didn't
want to push my luck to be honest, and took the
winnings with glee!

I admit it doesn't work on all matches. I backed Celtic at
odds of 10/1 in running away to Inverness Caley Thistle
but they couldn't break the deadlock - that said 10/1 for
a 1/3 shot is a bet I would always take (although
admittedly there were only 5 minutes to go!

So, do watch out for these bets. If Barcelona
unexpectedly concede the first goal, if the Arsenal with
Arseshavings the new signing go down at home,
perhaps lay the opponents IF Arsenal were priced to
win comfortably enough.

It's a great little tool and does need an element of faith
in the pre match odds being an accurate reflection of
the team's chances

I'm off now to persuade Mademoiselle Clouseau to
support Ireland tomorrow against her home country.

Have a great weekend

Regards

Clive Keeling