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13/3
publication date: Mar 13, 2009
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130 CHELTENHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 5/1 Master Of Arts, Walkon, Zaynar, 6/1 Starluck, 8/1 Ebadiyan, 12/1 Jumbo Rio, 14/1 Lethal Weapon, 16/1 Mourad, 20/1 Reve De Sivola, Trenchant, 40/1 Art Sleuth, Silk Drum, Tharawaat, 50/1 Simarian, Stow, Tyrrells Wood, 125/1 Just Rob, 250/1 Maidstone Mixture.
| | SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Alan King has a fine record in this race and in WALKON (nap)
he has another leading contender with a fine attitude who looks sure to
make a bold bid and can avenge his sole hurdling defeat by Zaynar on today's better terms. It remains to be seen if this stiff finish brings out the best in Master Of Arts and Starluck and Irish raiders Jumbo Rio and Ebadiyan are feared more.[AC] |
Choc
Thornton has not scored yet and 4/1 fav now on Walk On. Only 5 horses
under double figures odds, Walk on could be ok to place 2.26 to place
155 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Sgt Roberts, 7/2 Rupestrian, 4/1 El Bravo, Mohanad, 14/1 First Spirit, Wild Lyph, 20/1 Dalrymple, Suhailah, 33/1 Milemilia,
| | SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Not the strongest of maidens but one in which SGT ROBERTS
makes plenty of appeal. This half-brother to multiple middle distance
Polytrack winner Sgt Schultz will be well suited by the step up to this
trip and is open to further progress.[RY] |
Rupestrian
in to 2/1 in a race where it seems only 4 are in contention 1.47 quite
high considering the apparent market move and the 5 horses over 14/1
220 FAKE
BETTING FORECAST: 5/1 Iris´s Flyer, Silvo, 6/1 Bawnafaugh, 7/1 Desert Rat, 8/1 Beech Games, 10/1 Miss Phoebe, 12/1 Hesivorthedriver, 14/1 Anduril, 16/1 Ericarrow, Princess Stephanie, 20/1 Keyneema, Mount Usher, Mr Tambourine Man, 33/1 Arthurian, Government, Safe Investment.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: MISS PHOEBE
should go well around here and is given the benefit of the doubt when
slowly away at Lingfield last time, as the start developed into a bit
of a shambles.[AWJ]
Desert Rat is now 9/4 fav here - significant?
Hesivorthedriver another market mover into 5/1 and Keyneema 12/1 in places BUT this is a selling handicap hurdle
240 CHELT
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Cape Tribulation, 100/30 Pride Of Dulcote, 8/1 Alpha Ridge, 10/1 Weapon´s Amnesty, 14/1 On Raglan Road, 16/1 Browns Baily, Chariot Charger, The Midnight Club, Thetwincamdrift, Western Charmer, 20/1 On The Way Out, 25/1 Den Of Iniquity, 33/1 Toby Belch, 40/1 Midnight Sail, 66/1 Picture In The Sky, 100/1 Diablo, 150/1 Bally Sands.
| | SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This thorough test of stamina will suit On Raglan Road, who along with Cape Tribulation and Pride Of Dulcote
looks the pick of the home team, but the strength in depth of the Irish
novices has been well advertised at this meeting by their wins in both
the Supreme and the Ballymore. The front-running Alpha Ridge looks sure to make this a thorough test and that promises to bring out the best in BROWNS BAILY,
especially now he gets the chance to race on less demanding ground, and
he looks set to show marked improvement, just as his stable-companion
China Rock did here on Wednesday.[AC] |
CApe of Tribulation is Martin Blakey's selection. Looks like a 4 horse race really , another dutchable race like yesterday's?
255 FAKENHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 Valley Ride, 6/1 Deep Reflection, 7/1 Pairc Na Gcapall, 8/1 Federstar, 14/1 High Gliding.
| | SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: VALLEY RIDE faces by far and away his softest assignment yet over fences and it will be disappointing should he fluff it.[AWJ] |
Eyecatching
price gapper now 2/5 in the live market. A 3 miler and only 2 places
1.17 to place is big for a 2/5 shot - probably due to only 2 places and
3 miles
320 CHELTENHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Kauto Star, 6/1 Denman, Neptune Collonges, 8/1 Exotic Dancer, 10/1 Barbers Shop, Madison Du Berlais, 14/1 Albertas Run, 25/1 Air Force One, Star De Mohaison, 66/1 Halcon Genelardais, My Will, Roll Along, 100/1 Knowhere, Miko De Beauchene, Snoopy Loopy, 500/1 Cerium.
| | SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Gold Cup winners are rarely quite the same ever again, and Denman has a major question to answer after his lacklustre comeback. Kauto Star
has bucked the trend with a number of top-class performances over the
last couple of seasons but even he was not at his best here last year.
There are few about whom doubts of one kind or another cannot be raised
but perhaps the two most likely to run their races are NEPTUNE COLLONGES and Madison Du Berlais - both still relatively young and progressive - with preference being for the former whose form looks more solid.[ |
Last
year this was priced as a 2 horse race and now Denman is 5/1 which, for
me is a huge price if he can retain anything like the ability shown in
races prior to his last one.
KAuto or Denman to place?
Perhaps dutch the Nicholls runners? 1.55 for KAuto and 3.55 for Denman to place and 2.46 for Neptunes de Collonges
400 CHELT
BETTING FORECAST: 9/2 Juveigneur, 5/1 Cappa Bleu, 8/1 Amicelli, 10/1 Royal Auclair, 12/1 Kingscliff, 14/1 Limerick Boy, 16/1 Murphy´s Cardinal, Southwestern, 20/1 Ofarel D´Airy, 25/1 Always Right, Border Fusion, 28/1 Christy Beamish, 33/1 Baby Run, Chief Oscar, Chilling Place, Gaelsbob, Robbers Glen, Turthen, You Do The Math, 40/1 Dublin Hunter, 50/1 Proud Andees, 66/1 Back Nine, Marblehead, 100/1 Buckby Lane.
Always Right 16/1 with William Hill but 20/1 and 25/1 elsewhere.Might be worth monitoring incase there's a late move
425 LING
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Park Lane, 5/2 Dalradian, 10/1 Mystic Touch, Westlin´ Winds, 16/1 Michael Laskey, 20/1 Benozzo Gozzoli, Pursuit Of Purpose, 66/1 Red Dagger, Topcroft.
| | SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Dalradian and PARK LANE (nap) set the standard here and the latter, who looked ready for a step up in trip last season, can make a winning reappearance. Mystic Touch looks best of the rest.[PSm] |
2 under 10/1 - Frankie Spencer on fav 1.12 to place
530 FAKE
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Nordwind, 2/1 Jardin De Vienne, 4/1 Trachonitis, 12/1 Dr Brass, Night Orbit, 16/1 Dusk, 25/1 Laconicos, 33/1 Shake On It, 40/1 Louisiade, Treasure Islands, 50/1 Light Entertainer, 66/1 Bring On The Bling, Night Reveller.
| | SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It will be interesting to see if Tim Vaughan can work his magic on Jardin De Vienne but the marginal vote goes to NORDWIND, who has had less chances and put in a solid effort off a mark of 110 in handicap company last time.[SB] |
3 horses under 12/1
540 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 Smokey Rye, 4/1 Bavarica, 9/2 Moon Crystal, 5/1 Becuille, Melt, 10/1 Bold Diva, Little Knickers, 16/1 Too Grand.
| | SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Smokey Rye has developed into a hardy performer in plating-class events and she should go well once more, but it may be worth chancing BECUILLE
on her first run for Brian Meehan. She looks on a fair mark on her form
in Ireland and it isn't unreasonable to expect plenty of improvement
for the move to Manton.[PSm] |
Too Grand 12/1
650 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 Elsie Jo, 9/2 Rocket Ruby, 7/1 Private Passion, 8/1 Valdemar, 10/1 Missed Mondays, Monte Mayor Eagle, Weet In Nerja, 12/1 Dalepak Flyer, 14/1 Baby Josr, Ridgeway Silver, 16/1 Perfect Honour, Villaruz, 25/1 Twos And Eights.
| | SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A few possibles here including Missed Mondays and Dalepak Flyer (despite a wide draw), but ELSIE JO looks as though she will appreciate a drop to sprint trips and can gain a first success here.[PSm] |
Perfect Honour now 8/1
720 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 5/1 Green Lagonda, Teen Ager, 6/1 Welsh Opera, 8/1 Bollin Franny, Muktasb, 10/1 Dodaa, Monte Major, 12/1 Tyrannosaurus Rex, 14/1 Ask Jenny, Hurricane Coast, Richardthesecond, 16/1 Magic Glade, 20/1 Mandelieu.
| | SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Teen Ager and Green Lagonda should both go well but WELSH OPERA still gives the impression there is more to come from her at this trip and she gets the tentative vote.[PSm] |
ASk Jenny now 8/1 - quite a move and into favouratism
820 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Tous Les Deux, 5/1 Ravi River, Tourist, 6/1 Scartozz, 8/1 Faithful Ruler, Just Bond, Rainbow Mirage, 20/1 Cornus.
| | SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: TOUS LES DEUX (nap)
has been revitalised by the move to Gary Moore's stable and he has been
running very well all winter. His second here last week was a fine
effort and this longer trip will be in his favour. Faithful Ruler may prove best of the rest despite being out of the handicap.[PSm] |
PRice
gapper under SPencer and 3 the place so interesting BUT only one real
"outsider" makes this handicap a perceived competitive race 1.41 to
place
920 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 4/1 Star Choice, 6/1 Little Richard, 8/1 Buscador, Drawn Gold, Jago, Lunar Promise, 10/1 Calzaghe, Summer Lodge, Urban Warrior, 12/1 Bedouin Blue, Pelham Crescent, 20/1 Cash On.
| | SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Jago makes some appeal off this mark and with a couple of races under his belt this winter, while Buscador loves it here and is always feared under these conditions. LITTLE RICHARD is very reliable in his grade though and can add another win to his tally.[PSm] |
The favs are now Calzaghe (4/1) and Pelham Crescent (5/1) - 2 interesting movers BUT note the time of the race!!
SHORTLIST
| 255 FAKENHAM - Valley Ride at 1.17 is quite good. 2 places and 3 miles the niggles
320
CHELTENHAM - Kauto Star has Ruby Walsh onboard and he has had another
great festival so obviously his winning experience could booy Kauto
into a place again. He looks primed. Denman is an amazing 3.55 to place
ONE A DAY
I
will opt for Kauto Star again and 1.55 for target profit per dayers
ensures stakes will be small. 1.55 really is a great price but does
hint at a relative lack of confidence when compared to other years. Is
this the signal for the new guard to take over.
Will Denman's price
be a steal in retrospect? Beaten 23 lengths last time out - BUT he beat
the next horse by 25 lengths!! Excuses? Right handed track? Ground
conditions after a lay off? IFyou target profit per dayers want an even
smaller stake, then you will rarely ever be able to back Denman at 3.55
to place. For example, a £2 stake produces a return of £4.88! It's a
bet to nothing isn't it for target profit per dayers seeking their
compounding target.
As things stand, Kauto and Ruby will be my one a
dayer, and elsewhere, Valley Ride has been backed into 2/5 in the win
market from 1/2 in the betting forecast and would represent my other
than Cheltenham bet BUT I would have a niggle over 2 places and 3 miles |
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