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19/3
publication date: Mar 20, 2009
Ernst Blofeld won yesterday and a note for Bleak House - the 2 market
leaders fell independent of each other . Flagged up by Spotlight as
less than certain betting propositions, I'm glad I opted for Ernst. It
is another good sign that there is NO SUCH THING AS A SURE THING
---EVER!
A red letter day for the market movers has me scratching my head. Suddenly, Spin n Span wins 8/1, Cote Dargent wins 7/1, Dispol Diva wins 7/2, Quarl Ego wins 4/1, This ones for Eddy wins 4/1 with Ballycroy Boy 2nd at 13/2 in the same race . This can't be coincidence surely? How can we make use of these taking into account the fact that other days the market movers run like stinkers? PRICE GAPPERS 210 NEWBURY BETTING FORECAST: 8/15 Michel Le Bon, 9/2 All About Trigger, 6/1 Kilvergan Boy, 8/1 Run For Moor, 25/1 The Wedding Horse, 66/1 Coffee Morning.
Ruby takes a trip across the water for Mr Nicholls on board the market leader. 2 at 25/1 or bigger make his job easier. 1.14 to place 220 KELSO BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Gilsland, 9/4 Dove Hill, 6/1 On Spec, Sirkeel, 7/1 Stormin Exit, 8/1 Big Burrows, 33/1 Prioryjo, 50/1 Tantobie, 66/1 Bad Lashes, 100/1 Angus´s Antics, 150/1 Rich Girl, 200/1 Dukesfield.
2nd 2nd fav a non runner should make life easier for Gilsland? Big Burrows now 10/3 the main recipient of the non runner 1.44 to place 240 NEWBURY BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Fiftyonefiftyone, 7/4 Fistral Beach, 7/1 Mr Gardner, 10/1 Penharold, Shaking Hands, 14/1 Alaghiraar, 16/1 Buffalo Stampede, 50/1 Allonby Bay, 100/1 One And All.
2 price gappers in the one race - but which to chose? The first 3 in the betting have Barry Geraghty, Ruby Walsh and AP McCoy so we cannot discount or favour by jockey! These are the only 3 under 20/1 1.26 fro the front 2 to place The fav's form ties in with Michel Le Bon who runs earlier. A good run from him will add some positivity to 5151 as the selection 305 LING BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Northern Empire, 9/4 Russian Symphony, 6/1 Gold Rock, 33/1 Fly In Johnny.
Significant move for fav into 1/2 - one clear outsider all adds up to a good probabvility race with Gold Rock the fly in the ointment 1.11 to place 420 GOWRAN BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Hotel Hilamar, 4/1 Spring The Que, 5/1 Prince Erik, 7/1 Decoy Daddy, 10/1 Strylea, 12/1 Orge D´Ete, 14/1 Doc Reason, 16/1 Charming Hills, 20/1 Shan´t Complain, 50/1 Blayney James, 66/1 Battlehill, 100/1 Carrickshock.
Price gapper here whose form ties in with Captain Conflict who would have won very easily yesterday were it not for jockey error which eventually proved fatal for the Capt. This should strengthen confidence in this price gapper? 1.26 to place 425 NEWB BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Dante´s Storm, 4/1 Herecomestanley, 5/1 Merchants Friend, 7/1 Kaldouas, 8/1 Hautclan, 16/1 Give It Holly, Lindsay, 20/1 Brer Bear, 40/1 Caislean Na Deirge.
Now odds on in this hunter chase. A consistent winner , but note Spotlight's comments 1.26 to place 510 KELSO BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Thumbs Up, 4/1 Best Lover, First Stream, 5/1 Legion D´Honneur, 11/2 Casual Affair, 7/1 Buchanty Spout, 16/1 Arctic Rock, 20/1 Go On Be A Lady, 66/1 Arch, Tommy Tobougg, 100/1 Copper´s Gold, 150/1 Beverley Beck, Shambery, Yarrow Valley, 200/1 Hathamore, Whatevertheweather.
Only 5 under 25/1 with the fav now 5/4 in places. Can we just concentrate on these 5? 1.33 to place - all others are over evens 750 WOLVES BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Laurel Creek, 11/2 Mission Control, 7/1 Merrion Tiger, 8/1 Miss Serena, Mr Aitch, 9/1 Zuwaar, 10/1 Phoenix Flight, River Ardeche, 16/1 Monaadi, 33/1 Fort Churchill.
PRice gapper shortened in the live market - 2 miles on the flat not the ideal race type for me. 1.36 to place POTENTIAL MARKET MOVERS Superb performance yesterday with all prices, ie not just sub 5/1 200 LING BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Sills Vincero, 9/2 Iachimo, 7/1 Ruby Tallulah, You Avin A Laugh, 10/1 Brown Lentic, Chimbonda, Cindy Incidentally, Rapanui Belle, 12/1 Perfect Honour, 14/1 Miss Thippawan. You avin a laugh at 5/2 in places Brown Lentic 5/1 in places 230 LING BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Keep Ringing, Simplification, 4/1 Queen Martha, 5/1 Deraaya, 6/1 Kaabari, 10/1 Lady Micklegate, 14/1 Thefillyfromepsom, 33/1 Cross Reef. Queen MArtha leapfrogged into fav at 7/4 250 KELSO BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Razor Royale, 7/2 Sa Suffit, 9/2 Chief Dan George, 15/2 Role On, 10/1 Camden George, 12/1 Mill Side, Reel Charmer, 14/1 Doc Row, 200/1 Waterski. Camden 6/1 in places 315 NEWB BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Oh Braga, 3/1 Very Cool, 9/2 Picts Hill, 13/2 Hill Forts Timmy, 7/1 Treasury Counsel, 9/1 Apollo Creed, 14/1 Fantastic Arts. Fav hardened to 7/4 and Fantastic Arts now 10/1 350 NEWB BETTING FORECAST: 4/1 Massini Moon, 5/1 Monn Royal, 11/2 Burnswood, 6/1 Apocal, Darstardly Dick, Speedy Directa, 8/1 Arturo Uno, 10/1 Pourdel, 16/1 Tenor De Balme, 40/1 Midnight Spirit, 100/1 Katie Kingfisher. Pourdel 6/1 in places and Tenor a tentative 12/1 with some bookies but remains 16/1 with others 420 NEWB Brer Bear 16/1 - 14/1 and 12/1 with some bookies (1130am) 500 NEWB BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Indian Blood, 4/1 Secret Tune, 6/1 Olympian, 13/2 Red Admiral, 8/1 Wingman, 11/1 Polyfast, 14/1 Light Yield, 16/1 Cnoc Moy, 20/1 Chivalry, Serhaaphim. Light Yield 9/1 in places 520 LING BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Green Velvet, 9/2 Ishibee, 5/1 Admirals Way, 6/1 Meikle Barfil, 7/1 Affirmatively, 10/1 Titus Gent, 14/1 Magic Glade, 20/1 Head To Head, Rightcar Lewis, 33/1 Bahamarama. Head to Head 7/1 in places 550 LING BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 Nawaaff, 4/1 Babel, 5/1 Rann Na Cille, Triskaidekaphobia, 8/1 Sir Loin, 10/1 Sofinella, 12/1 North South Divide, One Way Ticket, 16/1 Stoneacre Pat, 20/1 Mujma. One way ticket 7/1 Mujam 12/1 650 WOLVES BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 Formidable Guest, 4/1 Snow Dancer, 9/2 Quick Off The Mark, 11/2 Ridgeway Jazz, 8/1 Garra Molly, Giddywell, 10/1 Keisha Kayleigh, 12/1 Amber Moon, 33/1 Millagros. Giddywell 4/1 in places 720 WOLVES BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 King Of Legend, 9/2 Waldorf, 11/2 Ergo, 7/1 Alfredtheordinary, 8/1 Sixth Zak, 12/1 Ike Quebec, Rigat, 16/1 Al Azy, Ardent Prince, Maybe I Wont, My Mate Mal, 25/1 Stark Contrast, Whaston. Stark contrast 11/1 in places 820 WOLVES BETTING FORECAST: 9/2 Private Passion, 5/1 Villaruz, 11/2 Dalepak Flyer, Josiah Bartlett, 8/1 Hint Of Honey, Praise Of Folly, 9/1 Order Order, 12/1 Salgrev, 14/1 Location, 16/1 Weet In Nerja, 20/1 Jaq´s Sister, 25/1 Key To Love. Jaqs sister 14/1 850 WOLVES BETTING FORECAST: 100/30 Bahamian Lad, 7/2 Incomparable, 11/2 Silvanus, 8/1 Princess Valerina, 9/1 Came Back, 12/1 Northern Dare, Soopacal, 14/1 Luscivious, Thoughtsofstardom, 16/1 Rothesay Dancer, 20/1 Bookiesindex Boy, Kelamon. Kelamon 10/1 Soopacal 8/1 Would be interesting to see how these market movers perform. Dundalk sees the start(ish) of the Irish Flat season and I'll be experimenting with backing jockeys Wayne Lordan, Pat Smullen, and Jonny Murtagh on preferably each way horses ( 4/1 , even down to 10/3 and bigger) as well as trainers Dermot Weld, Aiden O'Brien and David Wachman. 630 - Fly by Magic and Patricks well 700 - Ma Ani , Delek 730 - Signal Fire ( but 11/8) , Imco Spirit , High Magic 800 - Deal Clincher , The ride aint free 830 - Hujaylea , Countes Petrushka , Mad Existence 900 - Green Tabasco, Bobs Pride, Cochlear 925 - Street legal and Ransomed Bride both 2/1 favs SHORTLISTERS 210 NEWBURY - sees Michel Le Bon battered in to 1/3 favouratism. The question remains now after Cheltenham "is this the Ruby factor?" Are all Walsh/Nicholls charges going to be priced unnaturally short? 1.14 is certainly enticing given there are 3 runners at 16/1 or bigger. Step up in trip today on good ground. 240 NEWBURY - Superb jockeys on the first 3 in the market. 5151 and Fistral Beach are the clear favourites here with Ruby Walsh and Barry Geraghty good jocks to have on your side. 1.26 the pair but who to chose? As mentioned before in these types of markets, rarely do we get a 1-2-3 finish with the 1-2-3 in the betting market. 5151 was 40/1 last time out - was this run an anomoly or a true reflection of potential? That's the niggle. A 9 runner race ( 3 places) outsider at 200/1, one at 50/1 and one at 25/1 should reduce the potential rivals to 6 vying for those 3 places. A 50/50 chance then for the remainder to fill the first 3 places 5151 as a choice will be swayed by Michel Le Bon's run earlier as he beat Michel last time out. Fistral BEach - not encouraging the fact he was a beaten fav (3rd of 7 and hence unplaced) last time out but has shown consistent placed form On the assumption that Michel Le Bon performs earlier in the card, 5151 could be the place only choice here 305 LING - A 4 horse race (2 places) and a 50/1 outsider should leave 3 for 2 places. Gold Rock now 7/1 and Northern Empire clear at the head of the market at 1/2 1.11 to place is reasonable given he has only one to beat to place. This is a claimer though so not the ideal race type, but from a probability perspective, a reasonable bet ONE A DAY 305 LING - Northern Empire for me today as a purely probability race, but I will be getting involved in earlier races as there are some great dutching opportunities. Michel Le Bon is obvious and hopefully the 1/3 and heavy backing is indicative of the horse's chances and not a reaction to the jockey riding. I will seek to trade this one in the place market and hope to green out earlier . Hopefully I'll get my target before the 305 LING -it's just this race is a claimer and very poor. |
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