Hi,

No, not my words, but the words of thousands of
punters gearing up for this new and exciting Flat
Season, whose Irish compadres begin today on the all
weather at Dundalk.

We're all waiting for the boffin of Ballydoyle, Aiden
O'Brien, to send out his charges this new season. How
many top pedigree speed merchants are we going to
see? Will Aidan break his winning record from last
season?

No show from Mr O'Brien this evening at Dundalk, but a
few of my show biz pals, who I have mentioned
previously as worthy of following this season, are in
action. I refer specifically to Irish Flat jockeys Pat
Smullen, Jonny Murtagh and Wayne Lordan.

I suggest that the jockeys title in Ireland will be between
these 3 and I will be keeping a record of all their mounts
on the flat, especially horses priced 10/3 or bigger. I
want to see if my theory regarding backing these
jockeys, and their primary suppliers, Dermot Weld,
Aiden O'Brien, and David Wachman throughout the
season, will supply a profit.

I recall all the big priced winners last season for these 6
people, and hope for more of the same this season.

There's one thing for sure though. When it comes to the
Irish Classics, Aiden O'Brien's the one you should be
backing, simple as!

With the Flat in mind, there's been a lot of talk about
draw bias. I gave you some details last week regarding
the draw bias, and was approached mid week by Matt
Bisogno regarding his draw bias ideas.

I hope to begin trialling his service in the near future
and will report back.

For me though, it will always be the betting market that
is my signal whether to back or not - regardless of other
factors.

Calm Down, Calm Down

But the jumps won't go without a struggle as Liverpool
hosts the Aintree Festival with, of course, the Grand
National (or my 'Gran's National' - the bookies quake in
their boots as she puts her 25p each way down).

From Cheltenham we saw that bar Kasbah Bliss, price
gappers performed extremely well indeed. Does this
price gapper methodology work better with better
quality horses in bigger prize money races? It would
seem so.

The 16/1 system also mustn't be dismissed

Oh What A Day!!

You'll recall my 16/1 in your lunchtime article in last
month's newsletter. Well, here's the haul from
yesterday. STRAP YOURSELVES IN!!!

Spin n Span wins 8/1, Cote Dargent wins 7/1, Dispol
Diva wins 7/2, Quarl Ego wins 4/1, This ones for Eddy
wins 4/1 with Ballycroy Boy 2nd at 13/2 in the same
race.

Surely this is not coincidence is it? Looking at sub 5/1
selections in order to reduce selections and increase
strike rate, saw winners at 7/2 and 4/1 yesterday.

The problem I have with this market mover
methodology, and the reason behind focussing on just
5/1 or lower odds is because there are days like
yesterday where they all fly in - but then there are days
where not one market mover over 5/1 places.

It will be an interesting exercise to see how these
market movers have performed when all backed each
way to level stakes regardless of price. There is
definitely something here, the only thing to suss out is
how to weed out some selections and leave the
strongest and potentially most profitable.

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Speaking Of Blogs...

The place only selections continue unabated with
another 100% week, but the odds, generally have been
poor. Yeah, I know, I wish Denman could run every
week at 3.55 place odds. Still I'm making a profit
continuously and have done since the exercise started
in November 2008. My confidence grows daily (cue an
unplaced faller today!!) and it's got to the stage where
now I am extremely surprised if I don't get a placed
winner each day.

It just goes to show that crap odds can produce good
profits if consistency of selection and high strike rate
can be maintained (currently 95% or thereabouts strike
rate which guarantees even a level stakes return).

This is but one method you should employ in your
portfolio of systems. This one a day philosophy is at the
heart of the system's success. Don't over extend
yourself.

Could this one a day philosophy be transferred to
laying? I certainly think so. Think about it, how many
horses are running in a given day? How many horses
lose in a given day? Do you think you'd be able to pick
just one to lose per day? When put like this it does
sound achievable doesn't it?

My goal will be to add a one a day lay to my one a day
back.

Remember, when we are laying it is the equivalent
generally of backing odds on shots. Fixed Liability
laying will allow you to control your exposure and allow
you to increase the scope of the prices of the horses
you lay.

It is this fixed liability form of staking which allows
systems like Winners to Losers to curb losses, BUT
fixed liability laying also means that potential returns are
severely curtailed.

If you fancy level stakes backing using the place
market, then I hope to be putting together an article on
using certain market movers to get us decent place only
bets at decent odds, whose strike rate is around 70%.

One reader, Barry, has been employing market movers
with place only betting to great effect. He boasted to me
recently a profit of 15 points a month, which is superb.
My place only odds can be squeamishly low and I hope
to piece together elements of Barry's methods for you.

On the subject of readers, a shout out to Michael Curry
who wrote to me recently regarding a cracking
greyhound system he had. Well, Michael, if you're out
there email me at whatreallywins@yahoo.co.uk. I'd love
to see your greyhound system as the dogs are an oft-
neglected part of the bookies' daily offerings and must
offer us an opportunity to profit surely?

Bingo Masters Breakout!

Yes, I was scratching my head wondering how on earth
I'd get a song title by the Fall into an eletter, when along
comes the Bingo Blaster, the latest affiliate eBook being
sold by the usual suspects. It's available at
http://www.bingobonusblaster.com. I'll be getting my
bingo pen marker out, my hair blue rinsed, and tea bags
at the ready to give this a test.

From what I can gather, this eBook focuses on bonuses
offered at online bingo halls.

If this interests you, then I would suggest NOT buying
the eBook yet, but first Googling search terms such as
'online bingo', 'online bingo bonuses' - that kind of word
combination.

You see, I can't think there would be any "system" to
use with online bingo - perhaps you could Google that
too: 'online bingo strategies', 'online bingo techniques',
'online bingo bonus strategies' - you get the idea!

I do like trying to suss out eBooks without buying them,
using the information freely available on the website
and marketing emails. I suspect this might be a short-
lived strategy and not something that can be operated
long term, but I could be wrong.

Apparently the big bookies have been going mad for it
too so there may be plenty of vendors whose bonuses
you can take advantage of.

If anyone's bought it, please do email me to let me
know how you've got on.

The Tricks Of The Trade...

Thanks must go to Ian Galbraith for allowing me to
reproduce his excellent expose on the tricks used to sell
you a load of gubbins!! Here are some great pointers
you can use, especially regarding online scam
operators.

Over to Ian...

Pointers To Look Out For With Emails

Here are some of the pointers and tests to apply:

* Where does the email come from? If it comes
from abroad, the last two or three digits of the
email address will give a clue as to the country
of origin. Many of the frauds emanate from
Central Africa. Also anything that comes from
America you can probably delete. Under
American gambling laws they have no access
to Betfair and what they know about British
Racing can pretty much be written on the back
of a stamp.
* Has the Author given his full name and possibly
an address and phone number?
* Does he have a contact email address? - if so
email him and ask him to phone you - if he
does not call forget it. Is there a tangible results
history? Go to the Racing Post Web Site and
check a few results at random from their
historical data.

Ian also shares with us some of the common scams
used:

Some common scams:

* Backfitting - this is a process whereby
somebody invents their own betting system and
trawls through past races making results fit their
system. The worst example I have seen was a
couple of years ago. The Buswell system came
with seven years results and on
paper, produced just 35 losers from 1772
selections - a SR of 98%. The filters were
bizarre including - No Bets in August, No bets
on Sundays and multiple track exclusions when
cross referenced to different types of
horse's headgear and tracks. When I paper
traded it I had one qualifying bet from 48 days
of tracking and that came in third - the cost £99.
Backfitting is difficult to spot. If you feel a
system has merit contact the author and ask for
a thirty day free trial.
* The general rule that applies to all tipster
forecasts is if it looks too good to be true - then
it probably is. If in doubt, check that it comes
from a reputable publishing company and
demand a free trial.
* The Address List Scam - Take a list of
addresses and divide it into three or four. Select
a reasonable race and send one of the first four
favourites to each of the separate lists as a
"free selection". When one of the horses wins
follow up that winning list with an offer of
another three selections from the same "insider
informant" for £100. The con man now has his
money and can follow up with anything in the
next few days.
* False accounting - this type of scam is rife and
goes along the lines "Last week we had
winners at 5/1, 6/1, 11/4 and 3/1, what they
forget to tell you is that they also tipped six
other horses that lost.
* Bet for us - this is a total rip off and usually
commences along the lines "We are so
successful with our bets that the bookmakers
will no longer take our bets - when we send you
our selections please put £50 on for yourself
and £50 for us". If the selection wins you are
invoiced at £50 x SP for the winnings, If it loses
you take the full £100 loss. Avoid these scams
like the plague. Gullible punters have lost
hundreds and thousands of pounds on these
bets by chasing their losses. If contacted by
phone sound all enthusiastic and then ask them
to send you a betting bank of thee thousand
pounds of their money to offset potential losses
- that will be the last you will hear from them.
* Insider information - this is the oldest scam in
the business. The informer claims to have
contacts in leading stables with staff whom he
pays good money to, for inside information. In
my experience stable staff and jockeys are
among the worst tipsters in the business.
* Watch out for phoney track records - News
reaches my desk this week that a fraudulent
site is selling downloads of the Betfair grid to
which the recipient can add his own
runners, odds and race titles. It won't eliminate
all doubt, but if the claims look suspicious
check results with the Racing Post Site.
Thanks must go to Ian Galbraith at
www.iangalbraith.com for sharing his thoughts. It's all
familiar territory isn't it!! Remember the onus is on you
the buyer, ALWAYS!

Well, it's that time of the month again, newsletter writing
time, and I've got plenty to cram in next month's
newsletter, including updates on the systems and
tipsters who are performing the best and most
consistently.

We'll also be looking deeper into fixed liability laying as
a real strategy to profit from. And with the footy season
nearing its end, I'll give readers a round up of what
works - and what you should be using for next season,

All this and more.

Stay tuned.

I'm off now to clickety click with 2 fat ladies

Have a great weekend

Clive Keeling