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27/3 PLACE ONLY
publication date: Mar 27, 2009
Again, saved by the One a day philosophy - Nordwind ,2nd, places. Rough Sketch - another 4th place in a 3 the place on BEtfair and only 6 runners in another middle distance race - FANCY THAT!. Nice place lay for those in the know at 1.18!! I did have reservations yesterday. Too many selections across the board in maidens, sellers, claimers on a poor quality day's racing yesterday I'm just going to do place only on this blog and do another with market movers for my records nearer race time 210 FONTWELL BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Lavender Track, 13/8 Call Me A Legend, 7/1 Mini Saddler, 8/1 Allfortara, Where´s Susie, 33/1 Overspin, 100/1 Ullalujah.
Only 2 under 20/1 in the live market. Seeing the number of horses pulled up yesterday, we must be cautious regarding jumps racing - bring on the flat please! 7 now down to 6 with Allfortara a non runner. Lavender odds on and Call me 5/4 - traditional booky betting when they can't split horses, one must be odds on and the other odds against to create the overround 1.21 and 1.23 to place - again will the 1-2 finish 1st and 2nd? If not, which one will falter? 220 ASCOT BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 Tasheba, 7/2 Whispering Death, 9/2 Dover´s Hill, 33/1 Bankstair, 40/1 Bertenbar, 66/1 Dontsayathing.
Barry Geraghty over from Thurles yesterday to ride Tasheba for Nicky Henderson 6 runner race, 3 clear outsiders - 3 vying for 2 places - ideal probability race Fav has only had the one run over hurldes under race conditions - hardened to 2/5 in places and an ideal place candidate 1.12 a reasonable price given he seems to have 1 to beat to place 245 FONTWELL BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Blazing Desert, 7/2 Little Al, Petito, 11/2 Criterion, 10/1 Upham Atom, 33/1 Buck The Trend, 66/1 Code.
Thornton/King on a market leader always grabs my attention, BUT only 2 places here and 2 quite near rivals at 7/2 each 2 clear outsiders though bring the competitive field, it is hoped, down to 5, 2 of whom will place Fav now 8/11 in places, and barring a fall, or being pulled up, the normally reliable Choc Thornton can hopefully do the business 1.28 to place 345 SOUTHWELL BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Fin Vin De Leu, 4/1 Augusta Gold, 11/2 Miss Keck, 6/1 Dollar Express, 10/1 Thirtyfourthstreet, 12/1 Spares And Repairs, 25/1 My Mate Granite, 33/1 Adare, Furmagiatt, 66/1 Monte Pattino.
This race is an example really to make a point. Check it out at the racing post. 1 miles 4 furlongs to 2 miles races are niggly affairs. As you saw with Rough Sketch yesterday, favourites can be ridden in a fashion which makes them uncompetitive at the final push. These types of races are ideal "engineering" races to get a back or a lay landed by those in the know. I do not like these and would advise , if you're doing place only selections yourself (and you should be!!) that these races should be avoided regardless of the perceived strength of the market leader 430 FONTWELL
Thanks to Spotlight, we read that the trainer is making the long journey to the course to take advantage of the horse's lenient current handicap mark. Worth taking notice of? This is a 2 mile 6 affair though 1.38 to place - market not fully formed 505 FONTWELL BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Indefensible, 10/1 Heezagrey, Tanktastic, You Know Bridie, 14/1 Dew Drop Inn, 16/1 Evening Class, 20/1 Born West, Glenda Hoddle, Lazy But Lively, Tremolo, 25/1 Fishguard Filly, Vanormix, 33/1 Better Moment, English Jim, Lucy´s Turn, Miss Merenda, 50/1 Airedale Lad, General Alarm.
Now that's what I call a price gap! 3 miles 3 furlongs though is a long way but it's 4 the place (handicap over 16 runners) so fav must have a great chance of placing, again, barring a fall, interference, or being pulled up 1.14 to place - market is illiquid and I think this is NOT an accurate price Dundalk sees Pat Smullen and Dermot Weld team up on a couple of likely sorts to place at least, but as it's an evening meeting, the markets are not readable so early on SHORTLISTERS 220 ASCOT - Tasheba 1.12 to place, has Barry Geraghty on board, 3 horse are 40/1 or bigger , battered into 4/11 in the win market, only 2 realistically to beat to place. Negatives - maiden hurdle - up in trip today , questionable attitude of horse? 505 FONTWELL - Indefensible 14 length winner last time out, escapes a penalty - 4 places as 18 runnerhandicap - huge price gap which cannot be ignored. NEGATIVES - big field may cause problems despite the "dead wood" , 1.14 to place is a little short as things stand for a 3 mile 3 race , and, as mentioned, I think is an unrealistic price as the market is not fully formed. Just as I write, the price is now 1.22 and is likely to be around this mark or higher. ONE A DAY Again I will go with the first in time order today and hope Tasheba gets the job done. Again, purely based on the price gap, Indefensible is of interest and the price is likely ( relative to Tasheba) to be a lot bigger. ALTERNATIVES ? France under 21 are 1.19 v Estonia - France should have some decent youngsters shouldn't they? market movers will be done at 1pm (an hour before racing) |
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