Hi,

Yes, after months of toiling during the winter, praying our
selections don't fall, get pulled up, or run out of petrol in
heavy ground, it is time to welcome in the Flat season
(an altogether more refined affair). Speed is the name of
the game.

Doncaster's Lincoln meeting heralds this arrival - Yes
the small matter of a highly competitive 22-runner field to
sort out. Other races on the card are equally as
imponderable and I will be taking a watching brief.  Just
because it's a big, televised race, doesn't mean we have
to punt! Although I may have a shekel on Cobo Bay,
simply because that's one beautiful beach in Guernsey,
and home to the Rockmount pub or "Rocky" as it's
known, where I spent many hours of my misspent youth,
ending up feeling like Rocky after 12 rounds! 

As we see every year there is a "transition period"
between the end of the Winter Jumps season and the
beginning of the Flat season proper. And it is during this
period - the first couple of weeks in April, that it is best
to be a little frugal with the betting investments.

The first race on Doncaster's card is a 22 runner, 5
furlong, 2-year-old maiden (we'd have the full set if it
was ridden by amateur lady riders with blindfolds who
have to balance a tray on their head and make sure it
doesn't fall off while racing) Yes, a tricky opener I think
you'll agree!

Look, too, at the number of days since last race for a
number of entries at Doncaster. Invariably 100+ days for
the majority who've been put away while their double
hard jumps colleagues risk life and limb over the
obstacles.

How on earth do we know, after 100+ days off, whether
these horses are fit, fancied and in form?

How do you fancy tackling the last race, a 19-runner 1
mile 4 furlong apprentice handicap!? Me? I'd rather be
stuck in a lift with Timmy Mallett and Sue Pollard after
they've overdosed on caffeine!

So the curtain raiser for the UK Flat season, for me, is
one to leave well alone. As the season unfolds, and
there is recent form to call upon, I will be unfurling some
of the old flat systems, back and lay specific, which
could help make a decent profit. There's a system
specific to maiden races. As you'll see, there will be
many 2 year old, and 3 year old maiden races, where
horses will have no form, and layers may have the
advantage and be able to oppose odds on shots who are
priced based on trainer and jockey reputation and little
else.

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Speaking of lay systems, I am still trialling the Winners
To Losers system and Dodgy Favourites from Paul
Fowlie, but neither has impressed me for one reason or
another (as you'll read in the next newsletter) Paul
Fowlie's system could be salvageable if the big priced
lays were addressed.

I would also like to draw your attention to lay tipsters
such as www.itslaytime.com. Look at their results. What
do you see? ONE SELECTION A DAY!

Look at the prices of those selections - invariably around
the 8 or 9 mark, and sometimes as high as 12 and 13.
(As an aside, they show results to £100 stakes - laying a
horse at 12 will require a liability of £1,100. This is the
old trick much loved by tipsters in order to represent their
profits in the thousands, without telling punters that, on
occasion, they'll have to risk a cool grand in order to
replicate said profits!)
 
As you'll read in the next newsletter, this is simply the
equivalent of odds on backing 1/8 and 1/9 shots. Same
outlay and same return.

Now, do you really need to be handing over cash for
someone to give you ONE selection a day out of the
hundreds of horses running, which will lose at around
8/1?

Do you?

I mean, how difficult is it to select one horse, which will
lose?

This one a day philosophy I hope I have proven to you
with the place only selections (which, if you think about
it, is the equivalent of me laying a 9/1 shot or
thereabouts every day. When I back to say £100, my
returns on a 1.11 bet is £11. This is the same as laying a
horse at odds of 10 with a fixed liability of £100).

Now the place only backing is all but nailed, perhaps it's
time to run a lay version in tandem? Pick ONE horse a
day to lose, and either set a target profit as per the place
only backs, or use fixed liability.

There is no reason that an equivalent 95% strike rate
cannot be attained. The key to success of course - ONE
A DAY ONLY.

I'm going to start this myself, and do a "reverse" of the
place only betting, and see how I get on. Stay tuned on
the blog!

Other lay systems I have got my hands on is
Computapik's "The Winners Club" lay system, which
boasts a 96% strike rate (now, I hope, you know why -
it's the same as backing very very short odds on shots
and this kind of strike rate is expected!)

It had a losing lay yesterday, Nelliedonethat at 7/1 won
its race but if 96% is the long-term strike rate, then we're
quids in. (fixed liability is used which negates losses
(and also curtails gains!))

The price of the system though is not appealing at all.
£995, although there are far more affordable alternative
payment options! 

As far as the place only selections go, well it's another
100% strike rate this week, albeit at poor odds and the
one a day philosophy was certainly vindicated yesterday.
2 shortlisters in Nordwind and Rough Sketch. Nordwind
was my selection for the one a day as he was the first in
time order, and he placed 2nd so job done. Rough Sketch
managed 4th place and so would have lost!

It will be interesting to see how these place only's fair in
the flat season, but having mastered the jumps, with its
heavy ground, long distances and obstacles, hopefully
it'll be a lot easier!!

ALRIGHT LA!

Yes, Aintree will be upon us next weekend, the final
hurrah to the Winter Jumps campaign.

With the relative success of the Cheltenham Preview
from Martin Blakey, I asked him if he'd like to do a free
preview for Aintree for the eletter. This time, though, he
is actually charging for his preview of Aintree, and if it
replicates profits accrued at Cheltenham, will, I suppose
be worth investing in.

I did manage to get 2 races at Aintree for free out of him,
and recount those here:

Sat April 4th.
1.45. Mersey Novices Hurdle.
 
"At this early stage I can tell you that "Cape Tribulation"
is bang on course for this race. He found the 3 miles too
far in the Albert Bartlett at Cheltenham but travelled
supremely well up to the last and will find this trip much
more to his liking. He did a scintillating piece of work
early on in the week and is now bang on course. A final
decision will be made on his participation when the likely
going is confirmed as this horse does like some cut,
however all the stats and trends point to a very big run
indeed from Cape Tribulation and I will give my final
decision on the day of the race.
 
Thursday April 2nd.
5.30. Silver Cross handicap Hurdle.
 
"A very good races for novices, especially for horses that
have won earlier in the season. Looking at the the stats,
16 of the last 20 winners were all successful in the
current season and 19 of the last 20 winners carried a
minimum of 10st 4lbs. I cannot finalise this race yet as I
need to know how the weights are framed with non-
runners etc, but this does look a race where we can land
a nice touch.
 
Full details of the Aintree preview and live daily previews
throughout the meeting can be seen at www.pro-info.co.uk.

I hope, at least, that the use of stats, especially for races
such as the 2nd mentioned, will help to trim down the
field to the likely contenders.

Look out, too, for those micro sites as well which will
surface at www.racingpost.com and
www.attheraces.co.uk. The BBC website will likely have
a microsite dedicated to Aintree, given it includes the
Grand National.

Hopefully Mr Blakey can replicate profits again.

IN THE PIPELINE

There are a couple of interesting systems whose
"inventors" are very excited about. One is to do with
online roulette, and looks to have 2 very interesting
systems, and one is horse racing specific and focuses
on trainers who have a knack for landing a nice priced
winner.

More to follow on these as I get them and trial them
further.

I'm off now to stick a tenner at Paddy Power on me
marrying Kelly Brook by April 1st 2009. Let's face it; I've
got more chance of that happening than I have of picking
a winner at Doncaster tomorrow!

Have a great weekend!

Clive Keeling