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19/5 BLOG RECOMMENCE AFTER PASSWORD ERROR BLOCKED MY ACCESS

publication date: May 19, 2009
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I hope to keep my one a day winning run continuing by  am looking for a horse to place in the first 2 or 3


SHORTLIST
210 YARM -Isaaj is a son of Giants Causeway and a Godolphin runner with Dettori on board. 1.16 to place - marked drop in class BUT, as with the majority of races today, we have a maiden installed as fav based on a sole run
2 places mean we need to be spot on here and we cannot say for definite that this 2 year old will automatically replicate that sole run
230 NOTT
Included really as a probability race. 7 runners down to 5 runners and the 2 original market leaders remain.
Key art 1.26
Dancing Freddy 1.37
2 horses are 16/1 and 33/1 and there is one fly in the ointment at 7/1
If we can discount the 2 outsiders, then this is a 3 horse race for 2 places?

340 YARMOUTH
8 runners down to 7 and a significant non runner as that horse was the original 3rd fav
Yet another maiden race which is disconcerting but Dreamwalk is 1.16 to place in the first 3, and was a head 2nd last time out

400NOTT
This is one of those 50/50 chance races. 6 horses and still 3 places Pollys Mark is 1.3 NOT to get beaten by 3 other horses!
One clear outsider at 50/1 leaves any horse having only really to beat 2 to place.
My concern is that this is middle distance and the 3 at the head of the market are tight.
Spotlight also points out the very competitive nature of this race.
One for the gamblers in the hope Pollys Mark does not find 3 horses to beat him

840 LEIC
Not a proper price gapper in a low handicap - this is only a class 5 0-70 - I prefer to see class 6 0-65 for my little system. 1.26 to place

ONE A DAY
230 NOTTINGHAM is the probability race of the day.
To recap -see below we have a 5 runner race now - 2 horses at 20/1 and 33/1
One fav at evens
Miss Lauz is not out of it but the hope is that this one will not be involved a the finish
Key Art surely then has a great probability chance, all things being equal, of placing in the first 2 and at 1.26 is worth a punt
A 5 furlong maiden race is not ideal at all, and those with discipline can call this a no bet day but because of the probability angle, I am hoping the outsiders run as outsiders and Key Art does NOT find 2 horses to beat him out of the remaining 3.
MARKET READS
KEY ART EVENS
DANCING FREDDY 13/8
MISS LAUZ 13/2
ELEGANT DANCER 18/1
LADY BUCKET 33/1
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