Hi,

Killarney held one of only 3 meetings this week, so on Wednesday I
decided to visit the evening races with my friend and her 11 year
old daughter.

The result? 2 horses selected and 2 winners. Hamstead Heath winner
at 8/1 and Desert Romance a winner at 10/1

So how was this done? Well for this system to work, you will,
infact, need an 11 year old girl!! Hampstead Heath was her paddock
pick, her expert analysis "that's a nice horse and I like the
jockey's colours. Can I have an ice-cream?" and Desert Romance -
well that was easy. She liked the name!!

I came out of the meeting with one winner 4/6 Natural High for Pat
Smullen and Dermot Weld. Beaten by an 11 year old!!

Because of her obvious skills, she is writing the next edition of
What Really Wins Money, which will feature the Hannah Montana maiden
2 year old system and  Lara Croft, Bookie raider.

If my publisher is not happy with these, I have some back up
articles. Yes, May's What Really Wins Money is well under way and
features a little something for everyone.

I focus on football as the World Cup is edging ever closer. I'll be
looking at what we need in this one off tournament in order to make
us a profit. World Cup football differs, of course, in approach for
us bettors because we have been so used to betting in a league
format for the last few months.

Leagues means there is a form trail on an ongoing basis. The World
Cup may bring together teams who have never met each other before.
Furthermore, fitness is paramount as games are crammed into a short
space of time.

The first thing you need to prepare yourself is to have a list of
the match schedule to hand, to enable you to single out those
matches which you believe are most readable from a betting
perspective

http://www.england2010.co.uk/world_cup_2010_timetable_schedule.htm
will offer such a schedule

A pdf version of the schedule is available at
http://www.fifa.com/worldcup/matches/index.html

In this month's newsletter I will convey how I will be approaching
this tournament and how I hope to profit from this one off
tournament where our approach has to change. And look out for my
free live trading chat this World Cup. It is experimental, it is
new, but I hope we can join together to share opinions and learn
more about football trading on Betfair.

I'll also be taking a look at laying horses in this flat season. The
approach required is a lot different to jumps races of course, but
there is one thing in common for the layer, and that is that we are
simply trying to build up a case to oppose - that is effectively
what laying is.

And the draw could play a part in this case to oppose. In May's WRWM
Chris James, the Statman, takes you through an enlightening
statistical look at draw bias and comes to some very intriguing
conclusions. I actually learnt a lot from Chris's draw bias article
and I am sure you will gain greatly from it too.

The Patriarch was actually taken by my "all red" theory regarding
uncovering potential stable gambles (which I shared with you in this
eletter some weeks ago) and has expanded the idea to make it even
more accurate in his May article.

Tony Gibson offers a good dutching system and Martin Blakey offers
us a strategy for trading horse races on Betfair.

-----------------
Must Wins Do Win?
-----------------

What do Inter Milan, Red Bull Satzburg, Chelsea, Man Utd, Ajax,
Twente, Austria Vienna, Lyon, Barcelona, and Real Madrid all have in
common?

Recently, they have played in football matches that can only be
described as Must Win. In each case, they were playing for the
title, or to stay in the title, or to secure Champions League spot.

Must wins all did win in this case, and it is something I think you
should factor in to your research when betting on football. For
example today, we have another Must Win in French Ligue 2. Guincamp
are playing Ajaccio. Guincamp, with a win, will be catapulted out of
the relegation zone. It would be interesting to see if this must win
theory produces another winner.

Looking to the future, if there is a bookmaker which allows
accumulator bets to be placed over a few days then we have a great
opportunity of plundering these must wins. Watch out for them too,
in the World Cup when a team only has one game to go, and needs a
win to ensure they move to the next round.

This Must Win theory might actually be applicable to horse racing.
For example, look at the 800 Hamilton this evening. There is a horse
call Tinaar

Here's what the Racing Post has to say:

"Connections have suggested the Lancashire Oaks could be on the
agenda for TINAAR (nap) later this summer and she will need to go
close if that Group 2 heat is a realistic target"

Not quite backs-against-the-walls-win-at-all-costs must win bet, but
rather an expected to win, if lofty ambitions are to be realized.

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--------------------------
And There Goes Schumacher!
--------------------------

My favourite Grand Prix, (infact the only one I can tolerate) is
upon us this weekend at Monaco, and surely the person who wins
qualifying will have an outstanding chance of winning the race? The
market tells us that this Grand Prix should be between Sebastien
Vettel, Fernando Alonso, Mark Webber and Lewis Hamilton.

I personally will be backing these drivers in the qual/winner double
market.

e.g. Vettel/Vettel, Alonso/Alonso ,and so forth. The idea is that
this track is not an overtaking track and if the winner of
qualifying can hold on at the start, then he has a great chance of
winning.

The odds are decent enough, albeit in an illiquid betfair market,
but it's worth a shout.

Do note, though, that I ignore all other Formula 1 races all year
and only watch this one so my expertise is, erm, nonexistent!!

---------------------------
Betfair Videos At The Ready
---------------------------

After finishing my newsletter this month, I will be compiling, with
help from showbiz director Steven Spielberg, a number of Betfair
videos on how to nail profit making on Betfair. I have been with the
website since its inception and have learnt a lot in the interim,
and I hope these videos can help you to shortcut to those strategies
that are successful. So look out for more information on how to
access these Betfair video guides in the near future.

I'm off now to the Cannes Film Festival to show my first Betfair
Video. I hope it will be in with a shout for the Pam D'Or.

Have a great weekend.

Clive.