Hi,

I had a version of the famous Three Lions song ready incase my
World Cup picks, Slovenia, produced a result against England the
other day

“We’re going home, we’re going home, we’re going, England’s going
home.” Luckily I did not have to sing this version of three Lions
as Defoe got the winner.

A double edged sword for me in fact as I was obviously pleased
that England are in the last 16, but was shaking an angry fist at
those damn Yanks who, with a 90th minute goal, scuppered my
chances of an almighty trade on the Slovenians.

You see, I backed Slovenia in the outright betting market at odds
of 690 on Betfair (if that comes in, I’ll be able to afford to
have Guinness running out of a designated water tap in my house!)
and their odds had already reduced to 190 after a recent 2-0 lead
against USA.

If they had qualified for the last 16, those odds of 690 I backed
then at would have reduced considerably to under 100.

I could actually have profited after Slovenians 2-0 lead against
the USA despite the game finishing 2-2.

This is a great example of betting to trade rather than expecting
a team to actually win the World Cup , and believe me if the
Slovenians had won the World Cup, the milky bars would very
definitely be on me!

I had what can only be described as a hunch that the Slovenians
would do well. I don’t know why, but my mind must have remembered
something about the side that impressed, so I duly waded in with a
£10 bet on them at 690 in the World Cup outright market.

With each successive good result from the Slovenians, those odds
of 690 tumbled (there were other factors too, including the poor
performances of others in Slovenia’s group (including Eng-er-land
of course!)

I could actually have traded out by laying at odds of 190 for my
stake (£10) to guarantee a profit of £4750 if Slovenia won the
World Cup.

I could also have laid Slovenia at odds of 190 for a stake of
£36.35 to produce a profit of £25.11 on all other teams to win the
World Cup and £18.92 on Slovenia to win the World Cup.

Alas. I was a minute away from an even better trade.

So there are a couple of trading lessons here. One is to always
take a profit rather than gamble in the hope of greater future
gains yet to be realized. There was a great example of this on our
World Cup live chat yesterday as Japan went 2-0 up against
Denmark. The Japanese were available to lay at odds of 1.06. What
does this mean? It means that if you want to lay Japan to win
£100, it will cost you £6 (give or take!)

A couple of live chatters decided to lay Japan because the odds
were so low (the lower the odds the better for layers) in the
express hope that Denmark would score (they needed to win and
there was enough time left in the match that a 2-1 score line
would impact the markets.)

The Danes duly scored thanks to a penalty and the Japanese odds
increased to 1.21

Those who had laid the Japanese at odds of 1.06 could now back the
Japanese at bigger odds (1.21) and pocket the difference in
prices.

Luckily, these live chatters had the discipline to trade and
spread profit as soon as able to, because the Japanese soon sealed
victory with a third goal.

If you want to take part in these chats check them out by
registering here

The 2nd lesson is the “tournament” trade. In this trade, we
speculate on a team (football), player (tennis/golf), driver
(formula one) who we back pre tournament and hope they perform
well throughout a tournament. The longer they go, the shorter
their price becomes and consequently the better the trade.

With the football season soon upon us, this is something to
consider this new football season, especially with the highly
liquid top 4/ relegation markets for the Premiership. Top Goal
scorer is also a great market.

Trading has really dominated this week, as you can imagine, with
the live chats, and there’s plenty more action to come up with
these live chats, especially as we enter the elimination rounds of
the World Cup.

Trading, to remind you, is the “anticipation of a future price
movement” - and that means a price movement UP as well as a price
movement DOWN- and it is so interesting to see the varying tactics
of those traders on the live chat whose sole purpose is the
anticipate that future price movement, be it by anticipating a low
scoring match, anticipating goals, anticipating an early
stalemate, anticipating one team’s domination over another’s, and
so forth.

******************** Publisher Recommends ********************

“It is so simple and lucrative; you would wonder why nobody had
ever come up with the idea before.”

Jacqueline Lewis

Click here to find out why this quirky but simple little online
cash generator is causing such a buzz

**************************************************************

--------------------------------------------
Did anyone back a 1.01 shot at odds of 3.35?
--------------------------------------------

Question. When can you back a 1.01 shot (put £100 on to win £1) at
odds of 3.35 (one live chatter got 5 (4/1)?

Answer – when that player is Roger Federer, 2 rounds down and 3
points away from losing the 4th set.

So watch out when the big boys find themselves in trouble. In fact
Fed was in trouble again after that first round match, yet won
again.

Following on from the Japan example, laying at these ultra low
prices in the best of 5 sets can really allow great scope for
trading profits. 5 sets allows plenty of scope for a fight back,
as witnessed by Federer and traders can really clean up.

Pop along, it’s free and there’s some good banter at times. I must
admit that in one live chat, there were distractions such as the
epic Isner v Mahut tennis match. I in fact had a great idea for my
Dad’s 70th birthday on 16th August. I was going to buy him a
ticket for the Isner v Mahut match which I was convinced would
still be being played.

--------------------------------------------
Register here. World Cup Trading Chats.
--------------------------------------------

And with trading the theme I was interested to hear about the
launch of a new piece of betting software for Betfair. I will be
purchasing a copy of “the betometer” and trying it out and
reporting back.

As with all pieces of software, the profit potential is down to
the instructions you personally feed into the software. It won’t
magically pump out profits if you are not working the software, or
selecting the wrong bets!

What interests me about the betometer is it generates its own
prices for horse races. It would be interesting to see, long term,
how accurate those prices are, and whether it can be recommended
to you.

I’m off now to find my Fawlty Towers DVD in preparation for the
showdown this weekend with the old enemy.


Have a great weekend

Clive

PS - don’t forget to check this out. World Cup Trading Chats.