Hi,

Friendlies - An Ideal Trader's Practice Ground

No sooner has the World Cup ended than the football season hints at
a beginning!

And how do I know?

Well, it's preseason friendlies and pre season meaningless
tournament time! Yes, folks, utterly meaningless football matches
pervade in utterly made up tournaments which are little more than
money generating exercises.

Oh the cynic that I am!! But, all is not for naught! Starting
tomorrow you can begin to practice your football betting strategies
in advance.

And from what I experienced in the World Cup and from the World Cup
blog, football trading is a favourite strategy of the majority who
joined in.

So here's your first step.

Look and study tomorrow's Football Coupon, or rather tomorrow's in
play football coupon.

Your mission, should you chose to accept it, is to try and
"anticipate a future price movement". This is the definition of
trading that I came up with and perfectly sums up your goal as a
trader. I will add a caveat to the above definition - and that is
that we successfully anticipate a future price movement.

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That future price movement could be down or it could be up

A down movement will occur if you have backed an outcome in the hope
said outcome goes your way or hints at going your way. Yes, no
longer do you have to be actually winning a bet! If there is the
merest hint that the bet is likely to be successful (e.g. the market
makers watching a football match which is in running see one team as
utterly dominant, or there has been a red card to the opponents of
the team you backed, then you are entering prime trading territory)
then the odds will reflect this by shortening.

If you have laid an outcome, then you are hoping that the price you
have laid goes up to enable you to enter trading territory.

After you have looked in tomorrow's football coupon (in play) at
Betfair www.betfair.com, list football matches of interest. Then
beside those matches list the betting markets that you, as a trader,
would be interested in where you have a good chance of anticipating
that future price movement.

The next stage is to place your hypothetical bet and have a
predetermined exit strategy (I say that now, but the vagaries of in
running betting are such that a degree of flexibility is also
required  - there's nothing like watching a match with your own eyes
too).

And that will be great for the virtual trader.

Here are a couple of in running matches tomorrow that are of
interest to me, just to give you an insight into how I weigh up a
match as a trader.

So, I have chosen the Saturday in Play Coupon. The next step is to
list for you a couple of matches of interest for me.

1pm - Carlisle v Newcastle. Here is how I would break down my
analysis of this match.

1) CAVEAT - I would want to see the first team play for Newcastle

2) ANTICIPATED PRICE MOVEMENTS - I could back Newcastle United in
the match odds market and hope that they score first so the price
movement occurs (the price we backed will reduce considerably
enabling us to lay off our bet at www.betfair.com, at lower odds)

3) ENHANCED TRADING - if Carlisle United scores first, I will back
Newcastle United at higher odds and hope that they equalize quickly
- the anticipated price movement being Newcastle's reduction in
price after equalizing.

4) GOALS? As this is a friendly match, the shackles should be off
both sides and the expectation should be (in all friendly matches
perhaps?) for goals, so an over 2.5 goal bet to trade after a goal
or 2 could be a good hint at a possible future price move. Any
decision regarding goals can be helped by a quick look at the Asian
handicap market as this is the market makers' view on the match (and
we surmise here that they have the greater knowledge and
information) The Asian handicap has, at its best, a 1.5 goal head
start for Carlisle so this is the ideal.

5) Any other areas of note - yes! The betting market is illiquid at
the moment which means that I would like to see a reasonable
increase in liquidity between now and kick off tomorrow.

Now let me take the above through another game of interest.

3pm - Barnet v Arsenal - 1.24 to Arsenal

1) CAVEAT - no real rules here as a 2nd string Arsenal side should
prevail (in the ideal world and not the world of the friendly).

2) ANTICIPATED PRICE MOVEMENTS - Arsenal look immediately backable
here in the match odds to trade out if they take the lead at any
stage.

3) ENHANCED TRADING - it would be fantastic if Barnet lead at any
stage, so we can back Arsenal at higher odds. I would also back
Arsenal at higher odds if they got a red card

4) GOALS - -2 and -2.5 goals for Arsenal in the Asian handicap
market indicates perhaps a 2 or 3 goal win for Arsenal. So, tradable
markets could include the over 2.5 goals and over 3.5 goals markets.
Will Barnet score? If you think not, then perhaps backing Arsenal to
win 2-0 and 3-0 in the correct score market could be good? The
anticipated price movement would come with just a 1-0 to Arsenal but
these trading bets are scuppered with a Barnet goal.

5) Any other areas of note? Well the over 4.5 goals market might be
risked for trading, but as with the Newcastle match, I note that the
betting markets throughout are not liquid (there is not enough money
at the moment for market forces to work or, perhaps, for trades to
be properly executed.

Breaking it down like this makes it a little easier to know where
you are going and which trading bet you decide upon. Do bear in mind
the caveat - I may change my mind if the Newcastle United team is
not their strongest squad for instance.

So, do take a stroll to the in play Saturday Football Coupon at
Betfair www.betfair.com and try virtual trading. Believe me, if you
practice, and get this nailed, a superbly profitable September to
April awaits you.

Have a great weekend

Clive