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Prepare for the new footy season with these profit makers!
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Hi,

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yesterday’s alert.

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I hope you enjoyed my attempt to simplify the world of
football trading last week, and were suitably impressed with my
analysis of 2 featured football matches, Carlisle v Newcastle
United and Barnet v Arsenal.

Let’s take a quick look at how I approached each match from a
trading perspective and whether, indeed, I was able to “anticipate
a future price movement”

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Carlisle V Newcastle United
---------------------------

I concluded here that I would be happy to back Newcastle in the
match odds market as I believe they would score first, or lead at
any stage during the match. They scored in the 47th minute.

There was an additional trading opportunity here. Have you spotted
it?  Yes, at half time the match was still 0-0. If you retained
faith in Newcastle United being victorious, you could have backed
them at higher odds (than were available pre match) at half time
and hope the goals come in the second half.

How I backed a 1.04 shot at 1.23 and still won!!

This is precisely what happened yesterday incidentally in
Olympiakos’s home match against the, erm, might of the Albanian
outfit Besa.

A 1.04 shot were 0-0 at half time and backable at 1.23. A gift
from the betting gods! (6-1 final score!)

But back to the Newcastle match. I also hinted that the shackles
might be let loose with goals so an over 2.5 goals trade may pay
off. Well, of course with a barren first half you would have been
cursing yourself. But here is yet another trading lesson to learn
– a football match is 90 minutes long!

I have learned to my cost on more than one occasion that my
“anticipation of a future price movement” did not appear early on
the match, but did eventually appear!

So that Carlisle v Newcastle United afforded me 2 successful
“anticipation of future price moves” as the final score was 3-0.
And here is another trading lesson.  With the 2nd goal appearing
after 63 minutes, the over 2.5 goals market would have become very
tradable as the market makers think that Newcastle are very able
with 27 minutes remaining, to score a 3rd goal, or indeed for
Carlisle to chip in with a goal. As traders, we only need the
merest hint that the anticipated future price movement will occur
for us to profit.

As a quick example, if you back over 2.5 goals, and the away side
(and underdogs) score first (let’s pretend Carlisle score first),
then the market will expect a Newcastle United equaliser at the
very least.

This early underdog goal is manna from heaven for over 2.5 goals
traders as, in the mind of the market, they see a 2-1 score line
to the hot favourites eventually (again a mere hint of what is
likely to occur)

Next, I moved on to the mighty London clash between future
Premiership title contenders, erm, Barnet, and also rans Arsenal.

What were my anticipated future price movements in this case?

Well, again, I was happy to back Arsenal in the match odds and
trade out if they scored first, or lead at any stage during the
match.

Oh joy of joys! Arsenal score after 2 minutes! That anticipated
future price movement already occurs after 2 minutes!

I also thought that there were 2 tradable goals markets in the
over 2.5 and over 3.5 goals markets. With an early goal for
Arsenal, both of these markets proved very tradable, and with a
2nd goal after 16 minutes, a profit could be made on both markets.

Final score of 4-0 would have been ideal for bettors rather than
traders (bettors wait for the 3 goals needed for over 2.5 goals to
come in or the 4th goal needed for over 3.5 goals to come in –
traders merely need the hint that this eventuality will occur for
them to profit). I did mention risking the over 4.5 goals market
for a trade, and with the 4th goal coming in the 75th minute (i.e.
with 15 minutes of the match remaining), then this would also have
been a very successful trade, if not a winning bet for the
bettors)

In this match I also introduced the concept of trading the correct
score markets. I looked at the 2-0 and 3-0 score lines for Arsenal
as having appeal for traders. Indeed 2-0 was reached after 16
minutes and afforded a great opportunity to trade out ( again
bettors backing 2-0 would need the match to end 2-0 to profit,
traders however merely need the market to flirt with the 2-0 score
line for sufficient time to allow a trade)

3-0 came in the 45th minute and with a 4th goal not coming until
the 75th minute, there was ample time (including the half time
break) for a successful trade to ensue.

So there you have it – 2 successful trading matches last Saturday
(with my markets to focus on already sussed out the day before).
If you get into the habit of doing this weekly, then you will know
precisely which matches to fix your focus on and which anticipated
future price movements you are looking for.

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Other Potential Profitable Football Angles.
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The importance of managers cannot be underestimated this new
season. It would seem that some managers have particular
characteristics that they bring to each new team they manage.
Steve Bruce was a good example during his tenures at Wigan and
Birmingham – his characteristic was a tough to beat attitude at
home.

One example that sticks out like a Rangers fan in the wrong end at
an Old Firm Derby is Jose Mourinho who has taken over at Real
Madrid.

What is the over riding characteristic of this manager?

Quite simply, when you have Jose managing you, you do not lose any
home matches. FULL STOP! (I wish he managed our Sunday League side
because every match was a home match as it was played at the local
park!)

This particular characteristic goes back some 8 years (yes folks,
that’s years) and pervades Jose’s tenure at Porto, Chelsea, Inter
Milan, who all did not lose any home matches under him.

How can you use this information? Well, if Jose transfers this
home invincibility to Real Madrid this coming season, and then
look out for games where they are losing with minutes to go,
because somehow they should salvage something if in trouble at
home!

Look out for home matches where Real Madrid are losing at any
stage, because this should not last long and will afford us an
opportunity to lay the opposition who scored first or back Real
Madrid at better odds a goal down.

Look out for matches such as this one which occurred for Inter
Milan this year.

9th January 2010 saw Inter Milan entertain Siena. After 18
minutes, Siena takes the lead.

Cue our faith in Jose Mourinho’s amazing home record for all teams
he manages.

We either back Inter Milan at better odds or we lay Siena.

After 24 minutes, Diego Milito scores the inevitable equaliser for
Inter Milan.

Snjeider scores to make it 2-1 to Inter Milan and that home record
looks home and hosed and a successful trade has been executed
thanks to my belief that Jose will never lose at home.

But hang on a sec! Siena are not reading the script. It’s 2-2,
then 2-3 as Siena take a lead in the 65th minute.

Panic not! Remember Mourinho does not lose at home.

The clock ticks. 75th minute gone. No sign of an equaliser.

80th minute gone. No sign of an equaliser. Time to exercise the
unwritten rule that Mourinho does not lose at home and lay Siena
or back Inter Milan at very nice odds.

88th minute and Snjeider scores to make it 3-3

And, as jimmy Cricket says, there’s more! Samuel chips in in the
90th minute for a 4-3 win to Inter.

Faith in this Mourinho stat would have you walking away from
Betfair’s in running markets with enough dough to buy a plane
ticket over to Italy to thank Mourinho personally!

So, pay heed to this Mourinho stat during his tenure at Real
Madrid. And wait for that match where Real are losing with 2
minutes of normal time remaining! Keep the faith!!

So, are there any other new managerial appointments which may
change a team’s performances? Keep your eyes peeled in the red top
sports pages for such high profile appointments.

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Successful Strategies From Last Season To Apply To This Season
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I found the following bet types successful last season and thought
I would share them with you.

Lay the Draw!

Yes that old chestnut. It still works if you put the work in. The
essence of this strategy is to look for a game with a likelihood
of goals. We will also look for games where the draw can be laid
at odds of 4 or less. Once a goal is scored, hopefully the draw
odds will increase above the odds at which we laid to ensure a
profit through trading.

I chose 3 matches on a Saturday and enjoyed some profitable
weekends. The keys to success are in choosing just 3 matches
amongst all of the in running matches on offer.

Over 2.5 goal betting.

I found this strategy very profitable last football season. It is
adapted from a strategy sold via
http://www.oversandundersbetting.com/ - I don’t know if this
website still sells the strategy, but I found it to be logical and
profitable IF, and this is the caveat, its bets were approached
from a trading perspective. The strategy sold is a strategy for
bettors – I had success turning it into a strategy for traders
(remember we do not need the final outcome to occur, only the
merest hint that it would occur)

I also focused only on over 2.5 goals matches for my trading. One
goal scored by either side would help our cause.

And with that in mind, a quick mention for

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Neutral Betting
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What is neutral betting? Well, neutral bets allow both sides to
work on your behalf. Can you come up with some neutral bets
yourself?

Goals are obvious. If you are backing over 2.5 goals, you will
profit if either team scores. Ditto with bookings and corner bets,
first goal odds bets, if ever you want 2 teams playing for you,
then consider these neutral bets.

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Multiples Laying
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Betfair multiples can be a great profit maker for you this coming
football season. Why? Well therein is a method of creating an
accumulator bet where we can lay teams (and thus cover the draw!)

There were 2 particular methods I used.

1) Chose a number of matches with strong home favourites. Lay the
   outsiders in a multiple and include one bet where you have backed
   one team to win. This effectively enhances the bet on the team you
   think will win, and covers the draw in all of the other matches
   where the home side will not lose.
2) This is an adaptation of a poor football trebles backing
   system which was not sufficiently successful. Here we shortlist 3
   teams playing at home. We back 2 teams whose odds to win at home
   are around 1.5 and chose a 3rd team whose odds are around 1.33 to
   win at home. We choose to back these teams at Betfair multiples,
   then LAY this multiple and hope that one team draws or loses. It
   proved to have a decent strike rate last season as one team did
   tend to fluff their lines on more than one occasion.

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Correct Score Permutations
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If you are looking for a big bucks payout, then look no further
than the correct scores permutation that was featured in What
Really Wins Money newsletter. If you want an introduction to
correct score permutations, then Google those words in the first
instance, or get in touch with me and I will try and find my
article for you. How do I predict my correct scores?

Well, I use the asian handicap markets spreads to determine how
market makers feel about a game. I also look at the odds. For
instance a team 1.2 or lower in the match odds market tends to win
3-0, or 4-0 ( i.e. they do not concede) I will also use sites such
as www.betdevil.com to look at historical head to head score lines
between teams – there may be a pattern.

Finally I will look at season form from sites such as
www.leagueday.com where I will look at general score lines for a
team playing at home and away (a tendency to just win at home
perhaps?) and I will look at performance for one team against
those sides in their part of the league table.  A fine example can
be found at
http://www.leagueday.com/team.asp?league=england&teamid=19 – look at
Birmingham’s home score lines against teams in the top 5 and look
at the prevalence of draws when they played at home against the
top 8. Dutching draw score lines such as 0-0, 1-1, and 2-2 would
have paid off handsomely once this kind of a pattern was emerging.

I hope some of the above have whetted your appetite for the new
football season. Watch out, too, for key player signings. David
Villa for Barcelona is an inspired move and he should be backed
for the Golden Boot for La Liga this season ( as long as he stays
injury free) and may be worth backing if he goes 2 or 3 games
without scoring in the goal scorer markets. He should also help
the wondrous statistic where Barcelona scored first in 89% of
their matches (were as high as 94% during last season).

As you can appreciate I could go on and on with strategies for
this new football season, and urge you to get prepared with your
own strategies. Each football season I make better distinctions
which improve my strike rate for the new football season and
really look forward to each new Saturday and Sunday where Europe
wide football seasons begin.

Watch out for news of a potential new web chat for this coming
season! It will allow us to chat about all of the matches in one
particular day and how we will profit from them! So stay tuned.

Remember to practice tomorrow on your hypothetical football
trading tomorrow and anticipate those future price movements! Have
a great weekend.

Have a great weekend

Clive