Hi,

 

Shame I never learnt how to trade on Betfair when I was at Grammar

School!

 

Yes folks, after an invite from those kind chaps at Betfair, I

attended a free trading course in the City of London, so I could

kill two birds with one stone; abuse bankers and learn about trading

in the same day!!

 

How lucky am I?!

 

Well, what did I learn about trading in this course? Quite a lot

actually. Just to give you a taster, this is what I got out of this

course.

 

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RESEARCH WILL REWARD

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The quality of your betting decisions with football trading is

commensurate with the quality of your research.

 

Get your research from the back pages of the Sun? Don't expect your

trading decisions to be as accurate.

 

Check out head to heads, goal trends, win/lose /draw trends, home

trends/away trends using websites such as www.futbol24.com,

www.soccerstats.com and www.betdevil.com and you will be able to

make a far more accurate assessment of a particular football match

and determine which markets to trade.

 

Here is a basic example of the kind of research I do based on

today's football matches which interest me (as luck would have it,

none of these matches are tradable as they are not in running, but I

hope you see the kind of things I look for).

 

5pm - Turkey U19 v Kazakhstan U19 - 1.22 home - The Kazak's most

recent win was 2-1 against Andorra, and it was Andorra who scored

first!! This should tell you the level of the Kazaks. Other wins

came against Wales in 2007 and Greece in 2006 so are not really

relevant. The Kazaks have only played a single game in 2010 as

compared against Turkey who have played 9 in 2010 so are match fit.

 

Turkey have lost 4 of their last 12, to Poland, Spain, Italy and

England - worthy teams to lose against.

 

Again not in running so only match odds and 2.5 goals market to work

with.

 

This game would interest me given the Kazak's tight win against

minnows Andorra. They have also only played once in 2010 so I would

have faith in the Turk's match fitness here.

 

If this game was in running, I would consider over 2.5 goals to

trade, or back Turkey in the match odds and lay off if they lead as

expected. Correct score market could also be traded here.

 

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7pm - Sparta Rotterdam v Emmen - 1.33 home - Emmen I think are a

promoted side as head to heads end in 2005. Emmen have only won 1

game so far this Division 2 season and that was 3-1 away to Fortuna

Sittard.

 

They have drawn 2 of their last 3, so a sign of change? But they

drew 1-1 with Almere City who Sparta beat 12-1.

 

Emmen have played 5 games away from home, losing 2, winning 1 and

drawing 2 so they seem to have a game plan away from home. The

merits of that opposition compared to Sparta? Well they all seem to

be in the bottom 1/3rd of the league!

 

3 losses, 3 draws and 2 wins thus far for Sparta is not really good

enough for them.

 

3 wins and 2 draws at home for Sparta - one of those draws was a 3-3

draw where Sparta were 3-1 up, so this should really have been

converted into a win.

 

On 4 out of 5 occasions at home, Sparta have scored 3 or more (once

12 v Almere!!)

 

Again, not in running which is a pity , just match odds and 2.5

goals markets.

 

What would I take from the above? Well, I would note Emmen's

surprising away form (2 losses, a win and 2 draws) and perhaps tread

warily.

 

I would also note Sparta's home form and the fact one of their draws

was 3-3 (3-1 up). Sparta scored 3 or more at home in 4/5 games.

 

Again, if this was in running, I would consider correct score

trading (3-0 to Sparta), and over 2.5 goals trading given that

Sparta score 3 regularly at home.

 

7pm - Waalwijk v Almere - 1.22 home - unbeaten this season so far,

Waalwijk are, alarmingly for them, drawing too many. 5 draws and 4

wins. 4 of the draws have been score draws so perhaps there is an

air of vulnerability at the back?

 

All of the draws have come against current top 8 sides . 2 home

draws came against 2nd and 4th in the league.

 

Almere sit 2nd from bottom. 3 away losses and one away win so far

this season. The away win was 4-2 against current 4th placed Helmond

Sport.

 

Every side so far has scored against Almere and Waalwijk are more

than capable of continuing this.

On 6 occasions this season, Waalwijk have scored 2 or more goals.

Almere have just conceded 6 at home, so it looks as if the home side

here can breach them. The question is, with their drawitis, whether

they can turn a goal into a win. Again, not in running.

 

How would I approach this as a trader if this match was in running?

Well one good trend is the fact Almere have conceded at least 1 in

all matches this season. I would also note the 4-1 Waalwijk head to

head, and the 12-1 win by Sparta over Almere and consider over 2.5

goals to trade ( push to over 3.5 perhaps?)

 

Waalwijk are unbeaten this season and, as a trader, I would have

noted the draws and would therefore consider goals bets as 4 of

their 5 draws have been score draws,

 

So, I hope you can see that even just scratching the surface as I

have done with the above games can help determine your game plan.

 

-------

STAKING

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This is a biggie I took out of the course. And it ties in with

discipline. Stick to your predetermined staking plan. We were

recommended that any stake and fixed liability should be 5% of the

betting bank.

 

You are highly unlikely to get 20 trades on the trot wrong! By

sticking to 5% risk, you can be confident that you can get it wrong

and life will still go on - but as you see, if you do your research

you will get it right far more often.

 

And to tie in, have a predetermined exit strategy and use stop

losses (some software will insert stop losses for you)

 

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SOFTWARE IS KEY

---------------

 

I have talked about this so often. You simply will not have a

trading edge if you insist upon using www.betfair.com, and a

calculator to work out your green up figure.

 

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THE LONGER YOU ARE IN THE GREATER THE RISK

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This is another great lesson for me and something I already

implement in my football trading. I always get out at the earliest

possible moment, sometimes waving goodbye to hundreds of pounds of

potential profit. But that is the key word - potential!  That

potential profit has not been banked yet!

 

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THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN HORSE TRADING AND FOOTBALL TRADING

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The key difference between trading the horse racing and trading the

football is this:

 

- trading in the horse racing markets is generally reliant on market

moves rather than opinion.

 

- trading on the football is largely opinion based (hence the need

for research)

 

Trading on the horse racing also requires specialist software and is

best utilized using a "ladder " presentation of the Betfair markets.

 

One thing I also learnt is that horse racing trading requires the

patience of Job, and a commitment to practice, practice, practice.

 

It will not click with you immediately and requires your commitment

of time. If you are unable or unwilling to put in the hours, then

perhaps focus solely on opinion based trading like football or

tennis.

 

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CRICKET IS ONE OF THE BIGGEST MARKETS TO TRADE

---------------------------------------------

 

Now I would have presumed that football was the best market to

trade. I am afraid I am one of those people who cannot watch cricket

without having the Samaritans on autodial and a friend with a large

stick next to me to wake me up when something vaguely interesting

happens.

 

For this reason I have neglected cricket, and perhaps you have too?

But it is the inherent volatility of the markets that makes cricket

a trader's paradise. After each wicket, the market fluctuates, after

a string of 4's, the market reacts.

 

So this is another thing I will take from the course - that it may

be financially beneficial to me to take a look at the cricket

markets as a trader.

 

So, for anyone interested in trading on Betfair, I hope the above

gives you some pointers to success. It is all logical. The real

biggie I would take is the need for software.

 

If you want to start for free then download geekstoy or betangel

basic (google them) and have a look around these.

 

I'm off now to try my hand at horse trading this weekend. A deep

breath as it requires patience and discipline, and I gave my

disciplinarian Miss Whiplash the weekend off - D'oh!!

 

Have a great weekend!

 

Clive